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On DeepSeek and export controls

darioamodei.com

81–90 of 185 posts

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#82
post #10

Unless the author makes a compelling case about why AI breaks the MAD status-quo between nuclear powers, I will assume that their appeals to NATSEC are an attempt to artificially create moat for their company.

AI is potentially so much deeper than MAD status quo.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#83

I'm kind of tired of the entire narrative that "US good, everyone else bad", as if only US deserves to hold powerful technology because it will be used for "the greater good", rather than employ it in military applications, as if Anthropic didn't partner with Palantir. And it amazes me how many people can't seem to see past the "US is good, everyone else are bad" smoke mirror.

I live here, so I want it to be the best.

Same. Be nice if we were the best by our own merits though, not by holding back our peers.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#84

> DeepSeek does not "do for $6M what cost US AI companies billions". I can only speak for Anthropic, but Claude 3.5 Sonnet is a mid-sized model that cost a few $10M's to train (I won't give an exact number). Also, 3.5 Sonnet was not trained in any way that involved a larger or more expensive model (contrary to some rumors). Wow!

^ This is publicly new information, and the 2nd part especially contradicts consequential rumours that had been all-but-cemented in closely-following outsiders' understanding of Sonnet and Anthropic. Completely aside from anything else in this article.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#86
> Export controls serve a vital purpose: keeping democratic nations at the forefront of AI development.

As an outsider looking in, I’m not thinking of the USA as a particularly democratic country any more. And I didn’t think its export controls were about democracy, but rather a trade weapon.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#87
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely. Chinese companies shouldn't have chips because their government has "committed human rights violations, has behaved aggressively on the world stage". And the US government hasn't?

To say the two are remotely comparable is either insincere or naive. Like I'm not saying the US always acts utterly virtuously, but they aren't running concentration camps and chemically castrating entire ethic groups. They also aren't imprisoning people for speech, which is important when we're discussing who we want controlling AI in the future.

I made no such comparison, but if you really want to start comparing government crimes and human rights abuses, I think you'll find we can make a stronger moral case arguing for chip bans for US companies than Chinese companies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BOBKTmaQ9M

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#88
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely. Chinese companies shouldn't have chips because their government has "committed human rights violations, has behaved aggressively on the world stage". And the US government hasn't?

To say the two are remotely comparable is either insincere or naive. Like I'm not saying the US always acts utterly virtuously, but they aren't running concentration camps and chemically castrating entire ethic groups. They also aren't imprisoning people for speech, which is important when we're discussing who we want controlling AI in the future.

I find this line of reasoning a whole lot less convincing now than I would have 2 weeks ago, and it wasn't all that convincing two weeks ago.

When the controlling party of the US is discussing concentration camps for immigrants while also happily calling to revoke birthright citizenship and deport citizens of the US that criticize Trump or the Republican party (eh - who am I kidding - it's the maga/heritage party now)...

It feels like we have no legs left to stand on here, and the support was DAMN shaky to begin with, seeing as we were routinely knocking over governments that we see as inconvenient in our geopolitical sphere of control for the last 100+ years.

Essentially, I think your argument is about 3 elections stale.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To say the two are remotely comparable is either insincere or naive. Like I'm not saying the US always acts utterly virtuously, but they aren't running concentration camps and chemically castrating entire ethic groups. They also aren't imprisoning people for speech, which is important when we're discussing who we want controlling AI in the future.

Do you remember when the US lied to everyone about WMDs and then caused the deaths of at least 100k Iraqi civilians?

Or overthrew democracies in South America, leading to the refugee crisis it now refuses to take responsibility for.

The entity that is least problematic (of the available options) and should be entrusted is the European Union.

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