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Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

rodneybrooks.com

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Re: Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

#81

Post by riffraff »

AlotOfReading wrote: post #40
kccqzy wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just opened the Waymo app and its service certainly doesn't extend to Sunnyvale. I just recently had an experience where I got a Waymo to drive me to a Caltrain station so I can actually get to Sunnyvale.

The public area is SF to Daly City. The employee-only area runs down the rest of the peninsula. Both of them together are the operational area. Waymo's app only shows the areas accessible to you. Different users can have different accessible areas, though in the Bay area it's currently just the two divisions I'm aware of.

Why would you consider the employee-only area? For that categorization to exist it must mean it's either unreliable for customers or too expensive cause there's too much human drivers on the loop. Either way it would not be considered as an area served by self driving, imo.

Re: Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

#82

Post by benreesman »

Bootvis wrote: post #75
benreesman wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I especially love how they can go fast when it’s safe and slow when the error bars go up even a little. It’s like being in the back seat of Nikki Lauda’s car.

As shown here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVZ8NyV4pXU

Perfect clip out of all of YouTube.

Re: Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

#84

Post by barnabyjones »

>Individually owned cars can go underground onto a pallet and be whisked underground to another location in a city at more than 100mph.

I'm curious where this idea even came from, not sure who the customer would be, it's a little disappointing he doesn't mention mag-lev trains in a discussion about future rapid transit. I'd much rather ride a smooth mag-lev across town than an underground pallet system.

Re: Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

#86

Post by VirusNewbie »

Denzel wrote: post #73
jsnell wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where's the economic proof of impossibility? As far as I know Waymo has not published any official numbers, and any third party unit profitability analysis is going to be so sensitive to assumptions about e.g. exact depreciation schedules and utilization percentages that the error bars would inevitably be straddling both sides of the break-even line. > with no evidence that the system can generalize, profitably, outs…

Analyzing Alphabet’s capital allocation decisions gives you all the evidence necessary. It’s safe to assume that a company’s ownership takes the decisions that they believe will maximize the value of their company. Therefore, we can look at Alphabet’s capital allocation decisions, with respect to Waymo, to see what they think about Waymo’s opportunity. In the past five years, Alphabet has spent >$100B to buyback thei…

>believes their money is better spent buying back their stock,

Alphabet has to buy back their stock because of the massive amount of stock comp they award.

Re: Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

#87

Post by qwertox »

barnabyjones wrote: post #84

>Individually owned cars can go underground onto a pallet and be whisked underground to another location in a city at more than 100mph. I'm curious where this idea even came from, not sure who the customer would be, it's a little disappointing he doesn't mention mag-lev trains in a discussion about future rapid transit. I'd much rather ride a smooth mag-lev across town than an underground pallet system.

Yet such an underground system should exist to transport deliveries.

Re: Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

#88

Post by riffraff »

rexreed wrote: post #4
gcr wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NET2021 means that he predicted that the event would take place on or after 2021, so happening in 2024 satisfies that. Keep in mind these are six-year-old predictions. Are you wishing that he had tighter confidence intervals?

If the predictions are meant to be bold, then yes. If they're meant to be fairly obvious, then no. For example, saying that flying cars will be in widespread use NET 2025 is not much of a prediction. I think we can all say that if flying cars will be in widespread use, it will happen No Earlier Than 2025. It could happen in 2060, and that NET 2025 prediction would still be true. He could mark it green in 2026 and say…

The NET estimation is supposed to be a counter to the irrational exuberance of media and PR. E.g. musk says they'll get humans to Mars in 2020, and the counter is "I don't think that will happen until at least 2030".

Re: Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01

#90

Post by input_sh »

laweijfmvo wrote: post #15
_yb2s wrote: post #7

It seems to me that the redefined flying cars for extremely wealthy people did happen? eVTOLs are being sold/delivered to the general public. Certainly still pretty rare, as I've never seen one in real life. I'd love to have one but would probably hate a world where everyone has them. Not really wanting to have this argument a second time in a week (seriously- just look at my past comments instead of replying here as…

Kobe Bryant basically commuted by helicopter, when it was convenient. It may have even taken off and landed at his house, but probably not exactly at all of his destinations. Is a “flying car” fundamentally that much different?

Can you imagine thousands of flying cars flying low over urban areas?

Skill level needed for "driving" would increase by a lot, noise levels would be abysmal, security implications would be severe (be they intentional or mechanical in nature), privacy implications would result in nobody wanting to have windows.

This is all more-or-less true for drones as well, but their weight is comparable to a todler, not to a polar bear. I firmly believe they'll never reach mass usage, but not because they're impossible to make.

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