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Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

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Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#81

Post by ksec »

dehrmann wrote: post #33
ksec wrote: post #27

I actually got a lot more upbeat about the potential of AI after watching this keynote more so than any other demonstration or presentation. Blackwell is still based on N4, a derivative of 5nm. We know we will have N3 GPU next year, and they should be working with TSMC on capacity planning for N2. Currently Blackwell is pretty much limited by capacity of either TSMC, HBM or packaging. And unless the AI hype dies off…

I was taking these sort of improvements for granted. They'll certainly make ai cheaper, but most of the cost is up-front for generative models, and the models don't seem to be getting linearly better.

>I was taking these sort of improvements for granted.

A lot of people would think so. In reality had Smartphone ( iPhone ) not taken off. The PC market alone would not be able to sustain the cost of innovation and Moore's Law would have ended at 14nm and we would have to wait 3 to 4 years for every node. Smartphone along with all the adjacent work on Internet infrastructure scaled us to 3nm. I wrote about both of these in 2014 and was expecting some slow down by 3nm. Now AI will provide the Capex to scale us to 1nm and beyond.

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#82

Post by ksec »

kcb wrote: post #37
ksec wrote: post #27

I actually got a lot more upbeat about the potential of AI after watching this keynote more so than any other demonstration or presentation. Blackwell is still based on N4, a derivative of 5nm. We know we will have N3 GPU next year, and they should be working with TSMC on capacity planning for N2. Currently Blackwell is pretty much limited by capacity of either TSMC, HBM or packaging. And unless the AI hype dies off…

A major chip acquisition by Nvidia will probably never get global regulatory approval. I guess the question is what does Mediatek provide in the partnership. Nvidia is well versed in developing ARM SoCs already.

> what does Mediatek provide?

Market access, shares and relationship to all vendors, most of them never worked with Nvidia. Ready made 5G solutions. Know how in product category that is not as simple as buying IP and making a chip. Shipping Nvidia CUDA GPU IP to all other domains. For acquisition benefits they share the development cost of leading node and volume. Which is part of the wider SemiConductor industry strategy aka Broadcom.

But yes. I guess China would be the first one against it. I never quite understand why Two Company in country A and B would need Country C 's approval for them to merge or be acquired.

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#83

Post by geokon »

headcanon wrote: post #36
behnamoh wrote: post #2

I liked this part: "one small step at a time, and one giant leap, together." I didn't like this part: 5090 for $2000, about $500 more than 4090 when it was announced. They didn't mention VRAM amount though, and I doubt it's more than 24GB. If Apple M4 Ultra gets close to 1.8 TB/s bandwidth of 5090, it'll crush GeForce once and for all (and for good). Also nitpick: the opening video said tokens are responsible for all…

Market price for a 4090 is ~$2700 today: https://stockx.com/nvidia-founders-geforce-rtx-4090-24gb-gra... When you have a retail price so far below "street" price, it just makes it harder to obtain and scalpers take a bigger cut. Raising the price to something more normal at least gives you more of a chance at the big-box store.

very naiive question... But why have a retail price at all and not just auction off batches to retailers (say 10 000 card at a time)

Let the market set the price and only control how many cards you auction and when

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#84

Post by truetraveller »

contingencies wrote: post #50

As someone who has gone pretty deep in to robotics over the last 9 years I skipped right to the physical AI portion, and wasn't impressed. This has been stated on HN in most robotics threads, but the core of what they show, once again, is content generation, a feature largely looking for an application. The main application discussed is training data synthesis. While there is value in this for very specific use cases…

Upvoted for a real wall-of-text in an AI-generation era.

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#85

Post by LarsDu88 »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #70
ninetyninenine wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is GPU improvement is driven more by gaming then by AI hype? Gaming is the biggest industry and there is real money coming from that. Does speculative money from VCs actually overshadow actual money spent by consumers? I know stock prices is driven by AI hype but how much does it actually effect the bottom line of Nvidia? I think GPU improvement happens regardless of AI.

https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2025/Q... Datacenter revenue alone is ~10x of gaming. The datacenter revenue is thought to have literally ~100x the earnings all up (H100 and 4090 have similar transistor counts but the H100 sells for over $30k while the 4090 sells for $2k which indicates huge margins). Gaming is pretty much insignificant for nvidia. That’s why nvidias stock has 10x’ed recently an…

And once autonomous vehicles expand to every city in America, and multiple robots are in every home in America, NVIDIA's market may expand even more.

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#86

Post by bufferoverflow »

jsheard wrote: post #55
ffsm8 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, at least this generation almost doubles that bandwidth, right?

The flagship is an outlier there since it went from 384bit to 512bit memory. There was no such bus width increase for the rest of the stack so the gains are more modest, 4080 to 5080 is only a 34% improvement.

"only a 34% improvement" - listen to yourself, man.

It's amazing we still get significant improvements in every generation.

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#87

Post by pertymcpert »

heyoni wrote: post #41
headcanon wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Market price for a 4090 is ~$2700 today: https://stockx.com/nvidia-founders-geforce-rtx-4090-24gb-gra... When you have a retail price so far below "street" price, it just makes it harder to obtain and scalpers take a bigger cut. Raising the price to something more normal at least gives you more of a chance at the big-box store.

Or scalpers won’t be dissuaded and street price for a 5090 will be $3200 or more. $1500 was already an insane price tag for scalpers to pay but they did it anyways.

The scalpers are trying to arbitrage the difference in price between the prices bought directly from suppliers and those on the open secondary market. increasing the retail price doesn't increase the price on the secondary market, it just lowers the margin of scalpers.

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#88

Post by xcv123 »

behnamoh wrote: post #42
aseipp wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The official specs for the 5090 have been out for days on nvidia.com, and they explicitly state it's 32GB of GDDR7 with a 512-bit bus, for a total of 1.8TB/s of bandwidth.

32GB is still not a lot.

It’s more enough for gaming.

Buy their datacenter GPU if you need more VRAM.

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#89

Post by xcv123 »

qingcharles wrote: post #66
Permik wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends totally how you define "hot air" in this instance. Later in the keynote there's a mention how the $549 card achieves the 4090-like rendering performance with DLSS, i.e. not with raw graphics, number crunching horsepower. Personally? It's a no for me dawg, DLSS unfortunately doesn't actually replace the need for the raw GPGPU crunch. For the average layman and a consumer? Nvidia will be selling those GPU's…

Creating the frames with raw GPU is better because they are exactly what the game engine wants to render. But that's unbelievably expensive. DLSS is absolutely the answer for gaming for the masses. DLSS will continue to improve and is far, far cheaper at creating intermediary frames than rendering them for real. I buy my cards for AI first and gaming second, though. So DLSS is little use to me. 5090 is a bit of a wea…

1080p is enough for the masses and even a $200 used GPU can run most recent games smoothly at native resolution

Re: Jensen Huang keynote at CES 2025 [video]

#90

Post by kortilla »

ninetyninenine wrote: post #64
ksec wrote: post #27

I actually got a lot more upbeat about the potential of AI after watching this keynote more so than any other demonstration or presentation. Blackwell is still based on N4, a derivative of 5nm. We know we will have N3 GPU next year, and they should be working with TSMC on capacity planning for N2. Currently Blackwell is pretty much limited by capacity of either TSMC, HBM or packaging. And unless the AI hype dies off…

Is GPU improvement is driven more by gaming then by AI hype? Gaming is the biggest industry and there is real money coming from that. Does speculative money from VCs actually overshadow actual money spent by consumers? I know stock prices is driven by AI hype but how much does it actually effect the bottom line of Nvidia? I think GPU improvement happens regardless of AI.

Gaming is effectively irrelevant to nvidia now. The stock appreciation over the last 8 years that brought them from a niche to a global dominant company is all from revenue that first came in from crypto and then got absolutely dwarfed by AI.
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