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Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

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Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#81

Post by dismalaf »

ivan_gammel wrote: post #72
dismalaf wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their GDP is growing faster that all other major Western Economies Growth that depends entirely on government spending can only last so long... First you blow all your reserves, then if/when you start printing money and hyperinflation kicks in even if the nominal GDP in the domestic currency appears to be rising, real GDP falls fast. Because Russia's essentially a petro-state, they had sizable cash reserves with wh…

>Now you can see with the price of the Ruble that they've run out of the will to prop it up using foreign reserves (probably running low on foreign currency) It’s not that simple. I don’t think Russia is low on foreign currencies. Due to sanctions and effects of war spending Russian economy doesn’t behave as a normal one. Recession is going to happen, sure, because the current high demand on domestic market is matche…

> But they will not burn foreign reserves to zero

No, of course not. But it's clear they've burned through enough that they've given up trying to prop up the Ruble, as they did in 2022.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#82

Post by ivan_gammel »

dismalaf wrote: post #81
ivan_gammel wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Now you can see with the price of the Ruble that they've run out of the will to prop it up using foreign reserves (probably running low on foreign currency) It’s not that simple. I don’t think Russia is low on foreign currencies. Due to sanctions and effects of war spending Russian economy doesn’t behave as a normal one. Recession is going to happen, sure, because the current high demand on domestic market is matche…

> But they will not burn foreign reserves to zero No, of course not. But it's clear they've burned through enough that they've given up trying to prop up the Ruble, as they did in 2022.

How is it clear? Their foreign currency reserves decreased just by 15% since December 2021 and their total reserves actually increased. Yes, some of that huge pile of money was frozen, but it’s nowhere close to “giving up” trying. So no, you are wrong, they did not give up, they simply did not have intention to keep ruble strong. The central bank intervenes to prevent high volatility, but that’s it, since 2015 they focus only on inflation.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#83

Post by dismalaf »

ivan_gammel wrote: post #82
dismalaf wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But they will not burn foreign reserves to zero No, of course not. But it's clear they've burned through enough that they've given up trying to prop up the Ruble, as they did in 2022.

How is it clear? Their foreign currency reserves decreased just by 15% since December 2021 and their total reserves actually increased. Yes, some of that huge pile of money was frozen, but it’s nowhere close to “giving up” trying. So no, you are wrong, they did not give up, they simply did not have intention to keep ruble strong. The central bank intervenes to prevent high volatility, but that’s it, since 2015 they f…

It's clear based on the exchange rate. You absolutely can't trust whatever data they put out there, but you can see based on their behaviour. I mean, they're literally asking North Korea and Iran for help, trading oil and gas directly...

There's no advantage for them to have the Ruble so weak because they absolutely want to import Chinese and Western products, namely technology, to fund their war machine. Even against the Yuan, the value of the Ruble has nearly halved since June 2022. That's not good for a nation that needs to import things...

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#84

Post by layer8 »

cen4 wrote: post #46
Etheryte wrote: post #10

Articles like these are a good example that while Russia often tries to downplay or outright deny the sanctions have any effect on them, they do work. This is only one specific example with a specific plane model, but their whole airline industry is facing similar issues on many fronts. Many repairs that used to be business as usual are now either prohibitively expensive or downright impossible due to the sanctions.…

The sanctions don't have a goal. So anyone can say anything. Besides Air Transport is a small ass part of GDP. Their MIL complex is on over drive, more than compensating for whatever hits the other sectors are taking. Their GDP is growing faster that all other major Western Economies. The US & EU are not serious about winning this war, mostly because they don't have confidence in themselves that they can.

I don’t think it’s lack of confidence. Rather, the public wouldn’t support the costs and sacrifices necessary.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#85

Post by blashyrk »

lawn wrote: post #73
jdalgetty wrote: post #36

At this point, what would Russia have to do to get back onside with the rest of the world? Obviously, ending the conflict with Ukraine is the first step, but what else would they need to do? How long would it take for them to get out of the doghouse, so to speak?

They can follow the leads of Japan and Germany. Unconditional surrender, with a complete cultural restructure and admitting to the atrocities, and prosecuting everyone responsible is a good start. But of course, that won't happen anytime soon.

But that would imply Russia becoming a neo-colony of the US, like the two mentioned countries. Which I don't think would ever happen, I think Russia would chose MAD over that if forced to make that choice. Russia under Yeytsin was already drifting towards becoming something like that, and has been firmly going in the other direction ever since

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#86

Post by thodin »

sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #57
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia is a civilian aircraft producer Massive difference between airliners and aircraft. Russia has not shown itself capable of mass manufacturing airliners. (Or even advanced aircraft for that matter.) That said, as a petro state, they’re fine running inefficient engines across their skies.

Are you serious? Look up SSJ-100 production numbers.

Russia can't make more SSJ-100. End of story.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#87

Post by thodin »

sedan_baklazhan wrote: post #77
cooljacob204 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compared to other airliners those production number are small.

Russia only needs to supply herself, not other markerts. Which manufacturers do you compare with?

Russia officially built only one SSJ in 2024 – RA-89192. But in fact it was originally built in 2022 and it is probably the last SSJ-100 ever produced.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#88

Post by thodin »

otabdeveloper4 wrote: post #58
audunw wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess we don’t say that USA had “sanctions” against the Soviet Union, but there was a monumental improvement in economic relations after the Soviet Union collapsed, no? So we have a direct example from history from the same region. I would say that Vietnam also shows that economic relations can improve a lot even without a fundamental change in the regime. China is also an example where economic relations improved.…

> but there was a monumental improvement in economic relations after the Soviet Union collapsed, no? No. None of the sanctions levied against the USSR were lifted and still technically apply to Russia. (Enforcing them is another matter.) > I don’t think any leader of any country wants to end up like North Korea North Korea is doing better than South Korea on every metric except "consumer goods availability" and "inte…

> None of the sanctions levied against the USSR were lifted

It's a lie. Sanctions actually began to be lifted in 1989 (Jews were finally allowed to emigrate) when we received 80486 processors. In 1990, we got our first SS7 switches and equipment for the first two mobile networks. It was a big thing.

> North Korea is doing better Too bad they are not allowed to tell this here, because internet access is available only to several hundreds people :)

> Iran is more modern, developed and free than any other middle eastern country. (That includes Israel.) Nice joke :)

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#89

Post by thodin »

blashyrk wrote: post #85
lawn wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can follow the leads of Japan and Germany. Unconditional surrender, with a complete cultural restructure and admitting to the atrocities, and prosecuting everyone responsible is a good start. But of course, that won't happen anytime soon.

But that would imply Russia becoming a neo-colony of the US, like the two mentioned countries. Which I don't think would ever happen, I think Russia would chose MAD over that if forced to make that choice. Russia under Yeytsin was already drifting towards becoming something like that, and has been firmly going in the other direction ever since

Russia can't choose anything by itself. It's the people in Kremlin who will decide, like it was when Stalin died.

Re: Half of Russia's A320/A321neo Fleet Grounded Amid Engine Issues and Sanctions

#90

Post by hsyehbeidhh »

thodin wrote: post #89
blashyrk wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that would imply Russia becoming a neo-colony of the US, like the two mentioned countries. Which I don't think would ever happen, I think Russia would chose MAD over that if forced to make that choice. Russia under Yeytsin was already drifting towards becoming something like that, and has been firmly going in the other direction ever since

Russia can't choose anything by itself. It's the people in Kremlin who will decide, like it was when Stalin died.

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