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Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

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Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#81

Post by mariusor »

Faaak wrote: post #64
concordDance wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people keep bringing up coastal flooding? Its one of the smallest and least concerning climate change effects. The 10cm sea level rise over the next few decades isnt very relevant and the speculation about increased storms is highly location dependent and low confidence. Far more problematic are the effects on farming of a degree rise. Its also very degrowth to conflate energy use with CO2 emissions. Many type…

Because it will remove plenty of land https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z and displace plenty of people

Building dams and dykes is not new engineering. Maybe the scale of covering enough of the shore lines with them will be challenging, but it will probably be less disruptive than having to displace the 190M people the abstract cites.

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#82

Post by gmuslera »

alperakgun wrote: post #58

Does being in an El Niño period affect the average world temperature?

It was a weaker El Niño than I.e. 2016 one. And it ended, by May, but still temperatures are far higher than what they should be. There are still record breaking months or only surpassed by 2023 ones.

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#83

Post by gmuslera »

The explanation more than a single factor could be all over the place, positive feedback loops are adding their own weight to emissions and direct warming. Less ice and permafrost, more forest fires, warming waters and so on may be having by now a noticeable enough impact to explain that divergence.

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#84

Post by vasco »

schnuri wrote: post #69
vasco wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To think things get done in the EU without Germany's approval is a bit past naivety. Germany publicly voted no to try and delay a Chinese reprisal too fast in counter tariffs, but that's just for optics, otherwise they wouldn't have been approved. It's incredible how one can see what happens in practice but believe what people say rather than what people do.

That’s just a conspiracy theory. You overestimate Germanys power in the EU by far, it is not 2009 anymore. Also, German car manufacturers will not profit from these tariffs.

The biggest economy in the block votes on tariffs for foreign competitors in their largest exporting industry and surprise surprise, adding tariffs is approved, and somehow your conclusion is that they are unhappy about it.

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#85

Post by FeepingCreature »

worstspotgain wrote: post #61
FeepingCreature wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, I'm not even sure which way I'd vote for climate. Here's one take: "Things are clearly out of control. We need climate mitigations that can be done unilaterally. One promising and surprisingly-feasible approach is a sun-synchronous solar-shade swarm.[1] That needs very cheap and frequent launches to be feasible. The only option is SpaceX/Starship. Politically, to get that going as soon as possible, it may be…

That's a good one, vote for the guy who's against EVs and thinks climate change is a hoax. Why not just steer an asteroid onto Earth. The sooner it gets obliterated, the sooner life can reemerge. /s

> That's a good one, vote for the guy who's against EVs and thinks climate change is a hoax.

The thing is, I agree with you, but I don't think that's actually that convincing an argument. Trump isn't going to personally reverse the ongoing exit from fossil fuels. Green energy might go faster or slower, but that doesn't necessarily matter in terms of preventing very bad outcomes. I think the high-concept paths to mitigation are a lot easier to delay than the "business as usual" eco trend.

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#86

Post by polotics »

ghastmaster wrote: post #55
peterpost2 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Extreme rain, extreme drought. And that degree rise is on average it's going to be much worse in some place. Just look at the production if coffee recently, its a catastrophe.

Sure there will be localized events, but on average, rising temperature and co2 will improve farming world-wide. Hence: For the 2024-25 financial year, India has exported 2.2 lakh tonnes of coffee, up from 1.91 lakh tonnes in the same period last year, showcasing a 15 percent increase. https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news/money/indian-coffee-exp...

What so you got one data point, this is your model? Just please read the IPCC reports, you will find nice maps.

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#87

Post by polotics »

ghastmaster wrote: post #62
pjc50 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most plants have a range of acceptable temperatures. Drought is also an issue, which is downstream both literally and metaphorically of rainfall and its interaction with climate.

I find it hard to reconcile that the entire world is going to be going through cycles of drought and flooding over and over due to a moderate increase in temperature and co2. Where in earth's history is the basis for this? We have had far higher temperature and co2 levels during periods of great animal and plant growth.

Well with more CO2 you have more convection, the higher atmosphere is actually cooling because of the nice CO2 blanket that keeps heat trapped lower. (Which by the way prooves that it's not the sun's natural variability that's the cause, otherwise the higher atmosphere would also get warmer) This temperature differential between low and high atmosphere then means more convection, more evaporation, more movement of air and water. Look just read up on this ok, it's not that hard.

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#88

Post by danhor »

schnitzelstoat wrote: post #47
arj wrote: post #22

We all live in the same planet, the most reasonable way to share this is that we get an equal share. For far to long certain countries have taken up much more of their share. To such a point that our whole carbon budget has been used in a single or two generations. Now is the time for those better of to contribute their fair share in solving this mess.

To quote Reagan: > The American people, the most generous on earth, who created the highest standard of living, are not going to accept the notion that we can only make a better world for others by moving backwards ourselves. We need to embrace carbon-free electricity (whether its nuclear or solar or whatever) and electrify as many things as possible. Degrowth isn't a humane solution, and it would first require the d…

> We need to embrace carbon-free electricity (whether its nuclear or solar or whatever) and electrify as many things as possible.

We need to do that (and even that is proving very hard, looking at the issues building out electrified ground transport and electrifying heating) and it will help a lot, but it won't be enough.

We have quite a few sectors where (economic or even feasible) non-carbon solutions aren't very forthcoming: Especially in (animal-based) food and aviation, but also manufacturing of e.g. new steel or concrete. These account for a huge chunk of emissions and reducing their emissions close to 0 in the next 20 years doesn't seem very likely. Looking at other technologies that are currently economically viable, such as solar, wind, electric cars or LED lighting, 20 years for nearly full adoption is very optimistic.

Reducing emissions there will mean also reducing consumption (and thus production, or the other way around) of those products. If we only accept superior technology as a means to "solve" climate change, we won't.

That'll very likely not mean degrowth as a whole as many sectors of the economy, especially the growing ones, are very compatible with an "electrify-everything" approach.

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#89

Post by worstspotgain »

FeepingCreature wrote: post #85
worstspotgain wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a good one, vote for the guy who's against EVs and thinks climate change is a hoax. Why not just steer an asteroid onto Earth. The sooner it gets obliterated, the sooner life can reemerge. /s

> That's a good one, vote for the guy who's against EVs and thinks climate change is a hoax. The thing is, I agree with you, but I don't think that's actually that convincing an argument. Trump isn't going to personally reverse the ongoing exit from fossil fuels. Green energy might go faster or slower, but that doesn't necessarily matter in terms of preventing very bad outcomes. I think the high-concept paths to miti…

> Trump isn't going to personally reverse the ongoing exit from fossil fuels.

No, he actually would [1][2][3][4]. And that's without even counting Putin. When they tell you who they are, believe them.

[1] https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/28/trump-paris-climate...

[2] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/uaw-chief-slams-trump-over-...

[3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-07-19/trump-pledg...

[4] https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trumps-r...

Re: Since spring of 2023, the world has been warmer than climate models anticipated

#90

Post by pjc50 »

ghastmaster wrote: post #78
namaria wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Previous temperature changes occurred over millennia, not a century and a half. Human civilization and agriculture depend on a very narrow range of conditions.

So the levels aren't the problem, it's the rapidity? > Human civilization and agriculture depend on a very narrow range of conditions. I'm in Ohio, USA. Are you from the Arctic by any chance? Maybe Australia? How about Mongolia? Perhaps Brazil? Mozambique? We live and thrive in all of those unique areas. Very narrow conditions indeed...

> So the levels aren't the problem, it's the rapidity?

Pretty much. If it was happening over a 100k year timescale nobody would care except the geologists.

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