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Can solar costs keep shrinking?

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Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#81

Post by jahnu »

EcommerceFlow wrote: post #43
api wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with nuclear is that it likes to be big, which means big capital-intensive projects and therefore a slow iteration time. Even if there are some things that are superior about nuclear, like land and raw resource use, it's going to get run over by a fast-iterating solution with small minimum capital investment. At this point solar+batteries is a cheaper option in almost all locations except perhaps places w…

Yup exactly. Why go through all that headache, which has existed with Nuclear since day 1, when we could just mass produce solar and plop it down on the infinite empty desert land out west.

The best argument for new nukes I heard was to drop in replace coal furnaces in existing thermal coal power plants in china.

https://www.volts.wtf/p/nuclear-perhaps

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#82

Post by JumpCrisscross »

pjc50 wrote: post #11
7e wrote: post #3

These charts stop right at the point where the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panels, and the tarrif schedule is only going up, to 50%. This matters because the future of solar is utility scale, where the panel costs dominate. So for the US, at least, solar costs will not keep shrinking in the short term.

Countries that impose tariffs on solar panels and EVs are really demonstrating that they don't actually believe in climate change being important, compared to good old bribes for corporate donors.

> Countries that impose tariffs on solar panels and EVs are really demonstrating that they don't actually believe in climate change being important, compared to good old bribes for corporate donors

Or countries could be heterogenous and care about climate change, energy independence and jobs.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#83

Post by BobaFloutist »

beembeem wrote: post #70
tuna74 wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Batteries are the solution. The sun is pretty stable (not very firm unfortunately, but I don't see how that relates to electricity).

Firm refers to the generation profile of the power source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dispatchable_generation Batteries are not cost or resource efficient for winter where I live. Less than 8 hours of sunlight is not enough to heat a house during the day let alone night. There simply isn't enough solar generation even when overprovisioned to last.

How often/much do you realistically need to heat a house with high, quality, modern insulation? Does your house have triple-paned windows, a vestibule for each entryway, well insulated walls, attic, and roof, etc?

Also if we're talking about heating, there's also the possibility of geothermal heat pumps, which seem to work everywhere, and while they have a high one-time capital cost but I'm pretty sure can more or less keep trucking along providing unbelievably cheap heat pretty much forever - even if you have to replace components, you probably won't ever have to redig the shaft again, which is a huge factor in the cost.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#84

Post by jahnu »

beembeem wrote: post #70
tuna74 wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Batteries are the solution. The sun is pretty stable (not very firm unfortunately, but I don't see how that relates to electricity).

Firm refers to the generation profile of the power source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dispatchable_generation Batteries are not cost or resource efficient for winter where I live. Less than 8 hours of sunlight is not enough to heat a house during the day let alone night. There simply isn't enough solar generation even when overprovisioned to last.

HVDC can go a couple of thousand km no problem with relativity low losses.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#85

Post by coryrc »

beembeem wrote: post #70
tuna74 wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Batteries are the solution. The sun is pretty stable (not very firm unfortunately, but I don't see how that relates to electricity).

Firm refers to the generation profile of the power source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dispatchable_generation Batteries are not cost or resource efficient for winter where I live. Less than 8 hours of sunlight is not enough to heat a house during the day let alone night. There simply isn't enough solar generation even when overprovisioned to last.

Drake Landing shows how you can shift heating from summer to winter. For twenty years it's been heating homes in Alberta, Canada. Though I see now, because it's a one-off, they are having trouble getting replacement parts :(.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/okotoks-drake-landing...

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#86

Post by wongarsu »

BobaFloutist wrote: post #78
anonfordays wrote: post #72

Soon (if not already) the largest costs associated with solar installations will be the labor. It's expensive to get people on roofs and electricians to reconfigure panels, install transfer switches, etc. The equipment could be free and it would still cost thousands for the skilled trades to install.

I wonder to what extent we can make it unskilled, at least for a building with modern wiring. Plug-and-play solar panels and batteries sound scary, but not necessarily impossible to do safely.

Anything involving roofs is difficult to do unskilled (at scale). You are working at height, potentially on a sloped surface, and have to worry about keeping the roof water tight.

But if you put the panels basically anywhere else it becomes a lot more viable. Some houses come with a plug to connect your generator, you can do something similar to plug in your inverter. Then you can later decide to put up a solar fence or put solar panels on the balcony or whatever strikes your fancy

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#88

Post by JoeAltmaier »

OP suggests that land costs will soon dominate the equation. So no mention of orbital solar plants?

Yes, somebody years ago published a study that said, Uneconomical! because lift costs, panel cost, transmission inefficiencies.

All of those are now drastically changed, by orders of magnitude. It is not a matter of IF orbital solar is economical, but WHEN.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#90

Post by mapt »

anonfordays wrote: post #72

Soon (if not already) the largest costs associated with solar installations will be the labor. It's expensive to get people on roofs and electricians to reconfigure panels, install transfer switches, etc. The equipment could be free and it would still cost thousands for the skilled trades to install.

This has been the case for years now for pitched residential roofs - they stopped being competitive a long time ago.

Thankfully, the impetus for residential roof solar was always more ideological than practical. There's plenty, PLENTY, of empty unused land within a 95% transmission efficiency (hundreds or even thousands of kilometers depending on tech) of the end user, for all non-island cases.

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