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Artificial intelligence is losing hype

economist.com

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Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#81

Post by whatever1 »

ChaitanyaSai wrote: post #52

I've trained as a neuroscientist and written a book about consciousness. I've worked in machine learning and built products for over 20 years and now use AI a fair bit in the ed-tech work we do. So I've seen how the field has progressed and also have been able to look at it from a perspective most AI/engineering people don't -- what does this artificial intelligence look like when compared to biological intelligence.…

There is no guarantee that we will not get stuck with these probabilistic parrots for 50 more years. Definitely useful, definitely not AI.

And by the way I can copy your post character by character, without hallucinating. So I am definitely better than this crop of "AI" in at least one dimension.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#82

Post by lasc4r »

ChaitanyaSai wrote: post #52

I've trained as a neuroscientist and written a book about consciousness. I've worked in machine learning and built products for over 20 years and now use AI a fair bit in the ed-tech work we do. So I've seen how the field has progressed and also have been able to look at it from a perspective most AI/engineering people don't -- what does this artificial intelligence look like when compared to biological intelligence.…

>We've run the 4-minute mile.

>We are in for radical non-linear change.

We aren't running miles much quicker than 4 mins though. The last record was 3m:43s set by Hicham El Guerrouj in 1999.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#83

Post by randcraw »

ChaitanyaSai wrote: post #52

I've trained as a neuroscientist and written a book about consciousness. I've worked in machine learning and built products for over 20 years and now use AI a fair bit in the ed-tech work we do. So I've seen how the field has progressed and also have been able to look at it from a perspective most AI/engineering people don't -- what does this artificial intelligence look like when compared to biological intelligence.…

I've worked in AI for the past 30 years and have seen enthusiasm as robust as yours go bust before. Just because some kinds of narrow AI have done extraordinarily well -- namely those tasks that recognize patterns using connections between FSMs -- does not mean that same mechanisms will continue to scale up to human-level cognition, much less exceed it any time soon.

The breakthroughs where deep AI have excelled -- object recognition in images, voice recognition and generation, and text-based info embedding and retrieval -- these require none of the multilevel abstraction that characterizes higher cognition (Kahneman's system 2 thinking). When we see steady progress on such frontiers, only then a plausible case can and should be made that the essentials of AGI are indeed within our grasp. Until then, plateauing at a higher level of pattern matching than we had expected -- which is what we have seen many times before from narrow AI -- this is not sufficient evidence that the other requisite skills needed for AGI are surely just around the corner.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#84

Post by zaptrem »

cosmicradiance wrote: post #66
ChaitanyaSai wrote: post #52

I've trained as a neuroscientist and written a book about consciousness. I've worked in machine learning and built products for over 20 years and now use AI a fair bit in the ed-tech work we do. So I've seen how the field has progressed and also have been able to look at it from a perspective most AI/engineering people don't -- what does this artificial intelligence look like when compared to biological intelligence.…

On the current state of AI - do you believe it has "intelligence" or is the underlying system a "prediction machine"? What signs do you see that make you believe that the next level (biological intelligence) is on the horizon?

We are but prediction machines https://www.psy.ox.ac.uk/news/the-brain-is-a-prediction-mach...

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#85

Post by bamboozled »

langcss wrote: post #79
bamboozled wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How on earths name do you use an LLM to find information ? I just don’t get it. For current events it out of date and it confidently feeds me shit ? I might use them occasionally for a rubber ducky but , replacing Google ? Hm

Usually more for solution suggestion for programming stuff. Anything where I cam verify the answer.

Yeah fair enough. I just don’t see how this is entirely revolutionary though. We still need to know our stuff.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#86

Post by bamboozled »

dartos wrote: post #73
bamboozled wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well he gave you a list of credentials of why you should believe him. Isn’t that enough ?

> I've trained as a neuroscientist and written a book about consciousness This has to do with ML and numerical computing, how?

Well I was being sarcastic. I really dislike it when people have to first convince you that you should trust them.

Either make a good argument or don’t.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#87

Post by rendang »

freemoney99 wrote: post #22
upon_drumhead wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure that is realistic anymore. The run of free money is over and I expected that markets are going to be very picky compared to a few years ago

I must have missed the memo. Where could I get the free money? "a few years ago" we had a global pandemic. Are you claiming that markets will be very picky compared to that time?

It's just interest rates. 0 a few years ago, 5% today.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#88

Post by ChaitanyaSai »

zaptrem wrote: post #84
cosmicradiance wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the current state of AI - do you believe it has "intelligence" or is the underlying system a "prediction machine"? What signs do you see that make you believe that the next level (biological intelligence) is on the horizon?

We are but prediction machines https://www.psy.ox.ac.uk/news/the-brain-is-a-prediction-mach...

We do predictions, but much more important, we are able to create new states. Prediction the classical view assigns probabilities to existing states. What's unique to us and a lot of other biological intelligence is the ability to create new states when needed. This is not implicit in the narrow view of prediction machines

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#89

Post by bamboozled »

zaptrem wrote: post #84
cosmicradiance wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the current state of AI - do you believe it has "intelligence" or is the underlying system a "prediction machine"? What signs do you see that make you believe that the next level (biological intelligence) is on the horizon?

We are but prediction machines https://www.psy.ox.ac.uk/news/the-brain-is-a-prediction-mach...

Is this a good thing ? Because apparently we’re supposed to be building god. So it sounds like we’re on the wrong track, am I wrong ?

If we’ve just copied our feeble abilities, is that supposed to be exciting?

Is god like intelligent just a prediction machine too ?

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#90

Post by Prickle »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #48
ianbutler wrote: post #7

This supposed “cycle” has been crazy it’s been about 1.5 years since gpt4 came out, which is really the first generally capable model. I think a lot of this “cycle” is media’s wishful thinking. Humans, especially humans in large bureaucracies, just don't move this quickly. Enterprises have barely had time to dip their toes in. For what it’s worth hype doesn’t mean sustainability anyway. If all the jokers go onto a ne…

I’ve been hearing about the AI bubble being about to pop for more than decade now. And then just a couple of years ago AI took a huge leap…so now another AI winter is even more likely?

I think we will see something similar to the last boom with Neural Net chatbots back in 2014(?).

Public discource will simmer down, as current language models either fizzle out or improve. Some will become background noise as the models gets integrated into search engines or leads to large scale lawsuits.

Unlike the previous neural nets though, those models have an actual tangible use. So you will see them around a lot more.

Then I think we will see another big explosion.

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