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Are you better than a language model at predicting the next word?

joel.tools

81–90 of 105 posts

Re: Are you better than a language model at predicting the next word?

#81
post #27

Where do the incorrect options come from?

In another comment the author wrote > I made a little game/quiz where you try to guess the next word in a bunch of Hacker News comments So I guess the correct answer comes from the HN user who wrote the comment?

Yeah, but I was wondering about the incorrect options.

Re: Are you better than a language model at predicting the next word?

#82
> You scored 11/15. The best language model, llama-2-7b, scored 10/15.

I see that you get a random quiz every time, so results aren't comparable between people. I think I got an easy one. Neat game! If you could find a corpus that makes it easy for average humans to beat the LLMs, and add some nice design, maybe Wordle-style daily challenge plus social sharing etc, I could see it going viral just as a way for people to "prove" that they are "smarter" than AI.

Re: Are you better than a language model at predicting the next word?

#86

> You scored 11/15. The best language model, llama-2-7b, scored 10/15. I see that you get a random quiz every time, so results aren't comparable between people. I think I got an easy one. Neat game! If you could find a corpus that makes it easy for average humans to beat the LLMs, and add some nice design, maybe Wordle-style daily challenge plus social sharing etc, I could see it going viral just as a way for people…

Given the high scores, I guess it was an easy one. I've taken the longer one, and got the following

> You scored 28/100. The best language model, gpt-4, scored 32/100. The unigram model, which just picks the most common word without reading the prompt, scored 28/100.

Assuming complexity averages out on N=100, small test with LLM score above ~5 is "easy"

Re: Are you better than a language model at predicting the next word?

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can also invite you out for a coffee and your LLM can’t do that either–yet.

They're perfectly capable of inviting you out for coffee. They just can't show up yet.

Well the showing up part is quite important I’d argue.

Re: Are you better than a language model at predicting the next word?

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're perfectly capable of inviting you out for coffee. They just can't show up yet.

though, with web access and a credit card and the right information, you could probably get one to order a pizza to your house though.

I’m cool with that as long as it’s not my credit card.

Re: Are you better than a language model at predicting the next word?

#89

This is a nonsense test. There is no context, so the 'next' word after the single word 'The' is effectively random. I'm pretty certain that LLMs are unable to work at all without context.

They will "work", ie give a prediction, it's simply that it will have a pretty low probability of being the correct answer, which is a consequence of the highly limited context.

IMHO that doesn't make it nonsense, but maybe you are reading something different into the purpose of this test to what I am.

Re: Are you better than a language model at predicting the next word?

#90
post #63

Nice. I found you can beat this by picking the word least likely to be selected by a language model, because it seems like the alternative choices are generated by an LLM. “Pick the outlier” is the best strategy. This is presumably also a simply strategy for detecting AI content in general - see how many “high temperature” choices it makes.

This was always my strategy for Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?. Pick the answer that would seem the most unlikely to be listed if any of the other three answers were the correct one.
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