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The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

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Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

#81

Post by throw0101d »

pjc50 wrote: post #79
sillywalk wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I depends on what "win" would've meant. South Vietnam was the creation of the US. It didn't really have any popular support, it was dictatorship, massively and systematically corrupt, and existed because of US aid. It's doubtful that the US could've continued to keep troops in Vietnam. By the time (1973) the Paris Peace Accords happened, there was little US domestic support in the public, in business leaders, or in C…

> It didn't really have any popular support, it was dictatorship, massively and systematically corrupt, and existed because of US aid. Bears repeating. This was true of a lot of "anti-communist" US actions: propping up a hated local elite who were in no way democratic.

> Bears repeating. This was true of a lot of "anti-communist" US actions: propping up a hated local elite who were in no way democratic.

Not wrong, but I'm curious to know how things worked out (so far?) over the long-term: a lot of non-communist dictatorial countries (that the US propped-up?) managed to move over onto more democratic systems eventually, whereas (AFAICT) communist governments have managed to hang on and are still single-party states.

Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

#82

Post by foobarian »

pjc50 wrote: post #78
foobarian wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something that strikes me as really ironic is that, here we are in 2024 and tons of goods are being manufactured in Vietnam for a pittance and exported to the west. We are effectively just a small step above having enslaved this country, without a single boot on the ground.

The Vietnamese do not generally see it that way.

I know, right? It's genius!

Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

#83

Post by sillywalk »

throw0101d wrote: post #81
pjc50 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It didn't really have any popular support, it was dictatorship, massively and systematically corrupt, and existed because of US aid. Bears repeating. This was true of a lot of "anti-communist" US actions: propping up a hated local elite who were in no way democratic.

> Bears repeating. This was true of a lot of "anti-communist" US actions: propping up a hated local elite who were in no way democratic. Not wrong, but I'm curious to know how things worked out (so far?) over the long-term: a lot of non-communist dictatorial countries (that the US propped-up?) managed to move over onto more democratic systems eventually, whereas (AFAICT) communist governments have managed to hang on…

The Commies are still around and one party though they've gotten more capitalist over the decades. I think the only ones left are China, Cuba, North Korea, Vietnam and I think Belarus(?).

Most(all?) of the anti-communist dictators/juntas are gone. Greece in the 70s, South Korea in the 80s. The last that I can think of were El Salvador and Guatamala in the 1990s.

Supporting hated dictators/rulers is still around, e.g. all the Gulf states.

Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

#84

Post by JumpCrisscross »

bawolff wrote: post #76
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Did Germany lose world war 1 or did they just decide to stop bothering with it? Germany and Japan unconditionally surrendered.

Pretty sure germany did not unconditionally surrender in world war 1. Japan was on the winning side so they definitely did not surrender. World war 1 is not the same as world war 2.

Yup, misread.

Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right

#85

Post by meowface »

riehwvfbk wrote: post #77
pjc50 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably that's an important part of being able to get it right.

I can also get everything right post-factum. I R genius!

You can't really expect an intelligence agency to publicly pre-commit its predictions.
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