Live data from Hacker News

Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

curingaddiction.substack.com

81–90 of 214 posts

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#82
post #72

Ozempic costs $1000/month (in the US) but $5/month to manufacture [0]. I think if this drug and others are to have a significant anti-consumption effect on other companies it needs to be vastly more accessible, which first requires more accessible healthcare in the US, which is unlikely to happen. Also it's an injection, which raises the barrier. If drugs like these become orally administered and over-the-counter, th…

Currently they cannot manufacture enough to cover demand at $1000/ month. Why would the price come down before they can supply current demand?

> Why would the price come down before they can supply current demand?

Because in exchange they could unlock a bulk order from e.g. the U.S. government. That in turn could unlock economies of scale that let them price competitors out of the market.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#83
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I was on Ozempic, I just didn't want the milkshake. It rewires all reward centers.

You cant take these drugs forever afaik. Do they have permanent effects? It's just absurd to me the world has come to the point that we need these drugs in the first place but it makes total sense when you look at America for example. Awash in hyperpalatable processed "food" and corrupt food guidelines, a medical industry that "manages" chronic metabolic preventable disease but never cures it when probably 99% of cas…

It is absurd to you because you don't constantly crave food. It is easy for someone to say 'just don't eat so much' when they don't want to, but it is hard to not do something when you want it constantly and have access to it. Next time you are really thirsty, just don't drink anything -- then imagine something like that all the time.

> when probably 99% of cases could be reversed naturally.

What does that even mean? We aren't 'naturally' exposed to such calorie dense foods all the time and aren't 'naturally' supposed to be able to get any food with so little effort. What is natural about processed foods?

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#84
People like Scott Galloway have been saying this for a while, and he's completely right. The research isn't all there quite yet for stopping addiction, but the research definitely points to GLP1's effectiveness at reducing food cravings, appetite (and anecdotally "food noise") for people taking it.

If you're looking for a quick primer on what the term "GLP1 Agonist" even means: https://glp1.guide/content/what-are-glp1-agonists/

This will absolutely have a huge effect on companies that sell ingestable... "luxuries"/addictive substances -- the only thing holding back the deluge of change is the accessibility/pricing of the drugs.

It also seems like the next phase of this is gene therapy:

https://glp1.guide/content/a-glimpse-of-the-future-glp1-gene...

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You cant take these drugs forever afaik. Do they have permanent effects? It's just absurd to me the world has come to the point that we need these drugs in the first place but it makes total sense when you look at America for example. Awash in hyperpalatable processed "food" and corrupt food guidelines, a medical industry that "manages" chronic metabolic preventable disease but never cures it when probably 99% of cas…

> absurd to me the world has come to the point that we need these drugs in the first place GLP-1 looks increasingly like a miracle drug. We see problems of addiction and obesity skyrocketing across the developing world. It’s not cost free, but it’s a hell of a lot better than the majority of America, China and India becoming potatoes. When vitamins were discovered, there was similar moralising about there being no fr…

Reversing type 2 diabetes naturally is not scientifically unfounded at all. Look online in the right places and there is tons of people that have been able to stop taking all their insulin and metformin etc by fasting, compressing feeding windows, cutting out all carbs.

Even the ADA had to finally acknowledge this is possible in a statement back in 2021: https://diabetes.org/newsroom/international-experts-outline-...

It's not such a crazy idea really - You consume so many carbohydrates that you overproduce insulin and become insensitive to it in a vicious cycle. The more you fast, stay in a ketogenic metabolic status, reduce carbs and/or go zero carb, compress your feeding windows the more insulin sensitive you become.

There is no such thing as an essential carbohydrate. Your body can maintain your glucose needs by converting proteins into glucose. Fat and proteins are essential. Glucose is not it can be produce by liver.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can buy pharmacy compounded semaglutide through online portals, e.g. Ro It's $450/month out of pocket (no insurance coverage) Therefor, there will actually be price competition and we should see pretty cheap prices in the coming years. I'm not sure exactly why pharmacies are free to compound it independently. I guess whatever patents exist on Ozempic/Wegovy etc aren't sufficient to squash competition. The $1000/m…

There are dangers/risks to buying pharmacy compounded semaglutide -- not really a great thing to recommend widely. It's hard to depend on whatever pharmacy people might be able to find locally or through some hopefully trustworthy portal. That said, with China and more notably India entering the GLP1 RA race, there will be much cheaper options very soon, hopefully!

Can you articulate those dangers? Compounding is a well developed means of sourcing drugs and GLP has been around for decades. What specifically should people be mindful of?

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#87

Many years ago as a teen I worked seasonally at a big blue/yellow electronics store that sells TVs, computers, appliances....and candy at the register. Curious, I asked my manager about it. "Oh yeah, someone comes in here to buy a $10 HDMI cable, and impulse buys a $2 candy bar at checkout. Instant 20% more sales. Gas stations, pharmacies, they all do it."

Imagine if you could sell cigarettes by the stick at the register. $1 for a cigarette.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#88
post #13

[flagged]

Everyone already knows that diet and exercise are "the" solution to obesity, and yet it keeps getting worse.

If diet and exercise as an intervention were subjected to approval as a medical treatment they would never be approved. As a medical intervention they are rarely effective and when they are the effects are almost always temporary and relapse is worse than the original state. It’s about as effective as teaching abstinence to treat alcoholism or opioid addiction - but abstinence isn’t an option for food addiction.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#89
post #72

Ozempic costs $1000/month (in the US) but $5/month to manufacture [0]. I think if this drug and others are to have a significant anti-consumption effect on other companies it needs to be vastly more accessible, which first requires more accessible healthcare in the US, which is unlikely to happen. Also it's an injection, which raises the barrier. If drugs like these become orally administered and over-the-counter, th…

Currently they cannot manufacture enough to cover demand at $1000/ month. Why would the price come down before they can supply current demand?

Are you suggesting they shouldn’t manufacture more?

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#90

I'm not very familiar with the approval process for new drugs, but as far as I know it involves some initial step where the safety is assessed, and then the effectiveness. But I don't think either of those are actually long term processes (like, longer than 5 years). So it scares me a bit when something like Ozepmic pops up and tons of people jump on it, without knowing the long term effects that might appear. I read…

> So it scares me a bit when something like Ozepmic pops up and tons of people jump on it, without knowing the long term effects that might appear. Test in production. YOLO!

Considering it's not ethical (or legal) to spin up a test human what else are you going to do?
Post reply on HN