Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

npr.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 122 posts

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#81

Post by [deleted] »

UtopiaPunk wrote: post #35
lp4vn wrote: post #7

Sometimes criminality drops but at a too high price. Some cities in Latin America are "safe" from a statistical point of view but nobody dares go out at night, or even during the day, in some neighbourhoods because it's too dangerous.

Can you elaborate? I don't think I understand what it would mean to be "safe" statistically, but it's too dangerous to go outside. - Are you implying that the statistic data on crime is incorrect and/or falsified? - Are you including dangers besides criminality (like motor vehicle collisions or stormy weather)? - Are you implying the police make the area unsafe (the police being, practically if not literally, the opp…

[deleted]

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#82

Post by _Parfait_ »

none_to_remain wrote: post #72
_Parfait_ wrote: post #30

Even in the face of all the data look at the early comments in this thread. For some reason these individuals want you to believe there's this high level of crime. Blatantly ignoring the good trends and focusing on the outliers, in worse cases calling anecdotes better than facts. So strange and quite frankly weird as hell.

I know for a fact that since pandemic I've been threatened a bunch by bums and once minorly assaulted. None of that made it into the statistics as there's no point to reporting; the city council, the state legislature, and the DA are cool with me getting threatened and assaulted. Foolish use of metrics is everywhere these days. Carefully consider what the facts you have mean. There are also crime victimization survey…

We can't run this country based on feeling and anecdotes. Sorry. It's not an option.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#83

Post by FooBarBizBazz »

downrightmike wrote: post #36
dvngnt_ wrote: post #6

> There are some outliers to this trend — murder rates are up in Washington, D.C. Carjacking is also pretty rampant now

I wonder if that's because of all the anti abortion polices in red states. Given DC is in Virginia. Going to be pretty interesting in 30 years when all the red states suddenly have a massive up spike in crimes and super predators

I believe this is the Freakonomics theory.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#84

Post by ithkuil »

happytiger wrote: post #45
legitster wrote: post #32

> "The national picture shows that murder is falling. We have data from over 200 cities showing a 12.2% decline ... in 2023 relative to 2022," Asher said, citing his own analysis of public data. He found instances of rape, robbery and aggravated assault were all down too. > A Gallup poll released in November found 77% of Americans believed there was more crime in the country than the year before. And 63% felt there w…

Yea, I’ve been robbed twice in the last year (one car break in and a bike theft) and we didn’t even bother to report it. I don’t want to lose my insurance! I need to save it for something bigger.

Why would the insurance care what you tell the police?

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#85

Post by none_to_remain »

_Parfait_ wrote: post #82
none_to_remain wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know for a fact that since pandemic I've been threatened a bunch by bums and once minorly assaulted. None of that made it into the statistics as there's no point to reporting; the city council, the state legislature, and the DA are cool with me getting threatened and assaulted. Foolish use of metrics is everywhere these days. Carefully consider what the facts you have mean. There are also crime victimization survey…

We can't run this country based on feeling and anecdotes. Sorry. It's not an option.

People can vote based on whatever they'd like.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#86

Post by tptacek »

dvngnt_ wrote: post #64
tptacek wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Carjacking is rampant in large part because of what Kia did, which really ought to land that company in a lake of civil liability. Carjacking, at least as it's practiced in Chicagoland, starts with a burner car that rolls up on the victim to disgorge the armed robbers. Kias, which can be hotwired with a broken USB cable, offered carjackers a literal citywide fleet of burner vehicles.

"Toyotas and Hondas were the most commonly stolen car make in the District in 2022, with 501 Toyotas and 413 Hondas reported stolen. Hyundai and Kia were the third and seventh most commonly stolen, respectively, with 355 Hyundais and 192 Kias reported stolen last year. By comparison, D.C. police data show 1,468 Hyundais and 806 Kias were stolen between Jan. 1 and July 20 of this year, accounting for more than half of…

The targets of carjackings aren't Kias. Why would you carjack a Kia? You can just pick them up off the street. Carjackers use Kias to steal other kinds of cars.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#87

Post by tptacek »

atlantic wrote: post #68
tptacek wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Carjacking is rampant in large part because of what Kia did, which really ought to land that company in a lake of civil liability. Carjacking, at least as it's practiced in Chicagoland, starts with a burner car that rolls up on the victim to disgorge the armed robbers. Kias, which can be hotwired with a broken USB cable, offered carjackers a literal citywide fleet of burner vehicles.

If that were the case, carjacking numbers would be up wherever Kias circulate, which is clearly not the case. Criminality is rampant not because there are opportunities to commit crime, but because there are people willing to commit them.

They are in fact up where Kias circulate!

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#88

Post by purpleflame1257 »

tptacek wrote: post #29
dvngnt_ wrote: post #6

> There are some outliers to this trend — murder rates are up in Washington, D.C. Carjacking is also pretty rampant now

Carjacking is rampant in large part because of what Kia did, which really ought to land that company in a lake of civil liability. Carjacking, at least as it's practiced in Chicagoland, starts with a burner car that rolls up on the victim to disgorge the armed robbers. Kias, which can be hotwired with a broken USB cable, offered carjackers a literal citywide fleet of burner vehicles.

That isn't carjacking. That's auto theft. Carjacking is when a criminal takes over a running car, oftentimes via threat of violence. No interlock is stopping that.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#89

Post by dirtybirdnj »

happytiger wrote: post #45
legitster wrote: post #32

> "The national picture shows that murder is falling. We have data from over 200 cities showing a 12.2% decline ... in 2023 relative to 2022," Asher said, citing his own analysis of public data. He found instances of rape, robbery and aggravated assault were all down too. > A Gallup poll released in November found 77% of Americans believed there was more crime in the country than the year before. And 63% felt there w…

Yea, I’ve been robbed twice in the last year (one car break in and a bike theft) and we didn’t even bother to report it. I don’t want to lose my insurance! I need to save it for something bigger.

I completely agree with your sentiment but it makes me wonder why we pay for insurance at all. It's a complete scam.

Pay money monthly to a company "in case" something bad happens.

Then when you need to collect, you are treated like a criminal and they will do everything they can to avoid paying you. Your comment hits the nail on the head... you are paying for something yet afraid to use it because "what if something else worse happens". You need insurance insurance now.

They are not in the business of paying claims. They are in the business of tricking people into monthly premiums so they can deny their claims. If they can deny more claims than they fulfill I bet it's very lucrative.

Insurance is (morally) the worst industry ever. It is a product built on a lie. You wonder why people have no trust in corporations. This is why.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#90

Post by nradov »

_Parfait_ wrote: post #31
TMWNN wrote: post #5

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it". —Jeff Bezos https://sports.yahoo.com/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-explains-2123... >

Invoking Bezos doesn't make this sound less unhinged. Sorry.

No, Jeff Bezos has it right. There is some nuance to his data analysis approach and I recommend listening to his interview on the Lex Fridman podcast to understand what he was getting at.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5D4rToJ6IW2JsilsvuKeA1?si=X...

Post reply on HN