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Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

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Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say the main problem is "leadersh*t", incompetent captains of industry. It's so pervasive and prevalent that I really don't see any hope for them. People are also getting more and more unprofessional and expect high pay for subpar results. Devs on the other hand are hugely underpaid and the country operates in a two caste system of managers vs everybody else though not as badly as the UK. There is also a high ave…

Any traditional industry/company in Germany approaching "computers", "the web", "smart something" doesn't want to pay properly for devs. Mostly because the leadership in their late 50s (at best) has some nephew who is "good with computers" so it can't be that hard. You get senior electrical engineers laying down some bonkers architecture for how the software side is gonna work, and then two BSc CS graduates thrown at…

Yeah it's not just computers. Germany is full of educated high IQ people working for, in my opinion, peanuts.

But software and technology is especially poorly compensated there.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#82

People are blaming energy prices but I don’t understand: As far as I can tell, wholesale prices for both gas and electricity are lower than before the start of the war.

The fact that prices haven't increased noticeably sure seems like a sign that sanctions against Russia were largely toothless and their oil is making its way into the global supply all the same. Russia is responsible for something like 12% of all global crude oil. If sanctions actually worked and global demand for oil went unchanged prices would have increased, likely quite a bit as the demand is very sticky and not…

Sorry, but you don't understand the western sanctions on Russian oil.

The goal is to keep it flowing (so that the prices don't explode), but to squeeze the Russian profits. Make their (e. g. transportation) costs high and sale price low (price cap).

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that we need to keep what you call here mid-skill jobs. Too often I see people say to the disappearance of manual labor jobs: good, retrain people to use computers. I have slowly come to the belief that there are some people for whom working with their hands is the only kind of sane work they can do. You can call them blue-collar, or working class (these are the people incidentally that raised me, the people…

> Too often I see people say to the disappearance of manual labor jobs: good, retrain people to use computers. I have slowly come to the belief that there are some people for whom working with their hands is the only kind of sane work they can do. The people who say these kinds of things are usually pathetic specialists with a sole focus on their singular task, without looking at the big picture. They have limited in…

Yeah, our world started to move way too fast. In the past, new tech usually came slower so new generation could get hands on it, learn and then use it for life time. Now, you start learning on thing and sometimes even in the middle, you are going to switch because it become obsolete. Its insane.

What is more insane is, that whole progress I see in IT is just joke. All the new tooling that supposed to be better, easier to use and more productive is actually more bloated, slower and works against you. Yeah, indeed, sometimes its easier to start with a tool (aka, clickty clickty) but thats all.

Im heavy CLI user and I follow UNIX philosophy. I love it, write many simple tools and use them together. It works so well. Why abandom it?

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you and the op are both missing that the vast majority of those mid skilled jobs still exist, they just exist in countries whose labor costs are drastically lower. When you realize that, you then realize that betting that your workers will be able to maintain a quality gap large enough to justify keeping them around is extremely questionable over the medium to long term because you are assuming some combinati…

> I think you and the op are both missing that the vast majority of those mid skilled jobs still exist, they just exist in countries whose labor costs are drastically lower. They exist in lower income countries, but the work quality is often shoddy and poor at best. The talented ones have already migrated to the West. Case in point, a factory we built for a project in the Middle East with a fully European team took j…

That's literally point two and three of the argument I made in the second half of the first paragraph as something that is incorrect to bet on continuing forever. What would your project spread have looked like 20 years ago? I am guessing quite a lot worse. What will the spread look like in 20 years? I would bet on it being closer than it is now.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you and the op are both missing that the vast majority of those mid skilled jobs still exist, they just exist in countries whose labor costs are drastically lower. When you realize that, you then realize that betting that your workers will be able to maintain a quality gap large enough to justify keeping them around is extremely questionable over the medium to long term because you are assuming some combinati…

I'm not sure waiting for the rest of the world to catch up is a good strategy as there always seems to be somewhere else that is still willing to work for less. I suspect if manufacturing ever did come back it would be automated manufacturing.

depends on your definition of a good strategy.

None of the options are good for overpriced manufacturing labor in the first world that doesn't want to retrain/can't retrain.

Most of the options are good for the whole world, because manufacturing with less expensive labor usually translate to higher output for lower cost and the labor inflation that causes in the third world is in the really nasty subsistence level of the human suffering index rather than the can't afford a second car and/or the new video game console area of the human suffering index. The benefit to the world of labor price inflation in that level of the curve is so high it's not really comparable.

From the perspective of specific first world countries whether it is good or not depends on a mix of priorities from maintaining output capabilities in the face of potential war, maximizing the stuff your populace can get (bread and circuses limit political risk to rulers) and ensuring the spread between the upper and lower ends of society doesn't get so wide that the lower end looks up from its bread and circuses to revolt. Overall it will be a good strategy to move a significant portion elsewhere from this perspective as well.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#86
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Japan actually in a better place? GDP per capita is worse, work hours are longer, debt is much higher, birth rates are lower. Citation needed.

You have asked for a citation whilst listing a bunch of things that are quantifiable but which may or may not matter depending on your PoV...I notice you didn't mention crime...why is that it? Lack of citations? Asking for citations does not mean that the things you cite are relevant or useful. GDP per capita growth since 1990 is equal to the US. Yes, this is good. Work hours are longer...than what? They are shorter…

> GDP per capita growth since 1990 is equal to the US

Not it’s not. That’s just an absurd claim. Japan had even GDP per capita with the US in 1990, briefly overtook it ~1995.

Now US has more than twice as high GDP per capita (76k vs 34k). The Japanese economy has been stagnant since the mid 90s…

In PPP it’s almost as bad (45k vs 76k).

Now look at Japan and Germany, they were about even until 2007 now Germany is massively ahead.

> citing" without understanding?

Coming from someone who didn’t even bother looking up how Japan’s GDP per capita changed (or rather stayed stagnant) over the last 20+ years?

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#87

I've lived in Berlin for fifteen years now. My view is very different from what this article is portraying. Germany definitely has issues. Some of them are short term issues. Some of them self inflicted. And others have been issues for a long time. But all of these are fixable. All it takes is change. Change is hard for Germans but if you look at their history, you see that that wasn't always the case. They are hard…

> They are hard workers Where does this cliché come from? Germans work less than any other country on the planet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_a...

I also don't get it. I worked there for 8 years. I'm southern european and there was always a "half joke" about our lazyness. But we worked the hardest. My local colleagues were incredibly entitled and produced very little value.

In my opinion, Germany was at some point at the top of the world in most aspects, and the people became complacent over time. Which leads us to where we are today. Enshittification is palpable in every single aspect of society. No one cares about doing a good job anymore. Getting something done takes months where it should take days. And then that thing you got done breaks in a few weeks.

I'm sorry for the rant. I got pretty burned out of living there.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#88

I've lived in Berlin for fifteen years now. My view is very different from what this article is portraying. Germany definitely has issues. Some of them are short term issues. Some of them self inflicted. And others have been issues for a long time. But all of these are fixable. All it takes is change. Change is hard for Germans but if you look at their history, you see that that wasn't always the case. They are hard…

Nice summary, thank you. As a German who has spend significant time in the US, too, I could not put my finger on the missing part within all these pessimistic other comments. But it is there: Germany and the US are still very similar, if you leave some details aside. Just the timing is problematic at the moment. We will see. One big question is whether we can stop the AfD. The next big question is if we can channel a…

How is Germany similar to the US? Perhaps in the enshittification of society, but certainty not in the forces that drive innovation.

Germany could be that innovation hub in Europe, and it seems incredibly resistant to do so. And all of the EU is trailing behind, unfortunately.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that prices haven't increased noticeably sure seems like a sign that sanctions against Russia were largely toothless and their oil is making its way into the global supply all the same. Russia is responsible for something like 12% of all global crude oil. If sanctions actually worked and global demand for oil went unchanged prices would have increased, likely quite a bit as the demand is very sticky and not…

Sorry, but you don't understand the western sanctions on Russian oil. The goal is to keep it flowing (so that the prices don't explode), but to squeeze the Russian profits. Make their (e. g. transportation) costs high and sale price low (price cap).

The sanctions worked somewhat. So did the destruction of North Stream. With it operational, Germany would have been buying Russian gas as usual. Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries will work even better.

https://energyandcleanair.org/june-2023-monthly-snapshot-on-...

The German auto industry should be building tanks and APCs instead of obnoxious diesel SUVs. And they should build them like a Renault, not like an Audi or BMW which are not easily serviceable. Their Puma APC fleet is plagued with issues.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#90
post #79
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_a... > "Another important factor is the extent to which part-time work is widespread, […]" I would argue being a "hard worker" means efficiency, not total amount. Sadly I don't have any data on that, or even any idea how to measure this.

GDP / (average annual labor hours * number of people working in some way)? GDP is a pretty rough metric for efficiency, but it's among the better ones that are collected somewhat uniformly. "average hours worked * number of people working" is an approximation of total of person-hours worked (approx. because both numbers are probably cleaned up a bit in incompatible ways) The result would be the value a person in the…

No need to approximate anything ourselves, GDP per hour worked is a standard indicator of productivity. Germany is slightly behind the US.

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/gdp-per-hour-worked/...

Of course, efficiency can mean things beyond productivity.

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