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Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

fortune.com

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Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#81

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

slowhand09 wrote: post #76
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #16

We owe a bit more than 1 year's GDP. Most families that own a house owe substantially more than 1 year's income. Last time we reduced the annual deficit to zero, the usual debt hawks all reversed their position and said "this is terrible". We've demonstrated in my lifetime that we can do this. The fact that "we" don't want to right now has more to do with Republican attitudes towards taxation than anything else. MMT…

MMT basically says "its ok, we can just print more money". How did that work for Venuzuela? Lets see... 1.00 US Dollar = 3,615,588.83 Venezuelan Bolívares. The 6 inch thick stack of currency required to buy a roll of toilet paper would be more efficient than the toilet paper. Printing more money just devalues the work product of everyone before that. Republican attitudes about tax? Surely you jest.

[flagged]

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#82

Post by aryehof »

The USA can continue overspending, lending and making payments, all while taxing minimally - for a limited time only. Eventually, that equation will need to change.

The choices are tighten the belt and/or increase taxes, war and the appropriation of resources, and/or renege on debt and start printing money. All choices and consequences (in some cases dire) sadly left to the next and future generations.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#83

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

dkjaudyeqooe wrote: post #72
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The debt is owed by us, the American people. Thus we compare to the total (economic) resources available to us, the American people.

That's not true, it's not like if the US defaults you become personally liable. We're more like shareholders, and they are never debtors.

"We the American people" is the corporation.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#84

Post by LargeTomato »

bigstrat2003 wrote: post #40
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #16

We owe a bit more than 1 year's GDP. Most families that own a house owe substantially more than 1 year's income. Last time we reduced the annual deficit to zero, the usual debt hawks all reversed their position and said "this is terrible". We've demonstrated in my lifetime that we can do this. The fact that "we" don't want to right now has more to do with Republican attitudes towards taxation than anything else. MMT…

> The fact that "we" don't want to right now has more to do with Republican attitudes towards taxation than anything else. No, it has just as much to do with Democrat attitudes towards spending. You're right that the Republicans are partly to blame. But to balance a budget requires cutting spending as much as, if not more than, increasing revenues. The problem is that ~everyone thinks using their preferred approach (…

Our taxes cover entitlements, military, and debt. That's it. Everything else is coming from the deficit. The Republicans have cut taxes to an unsustainable level. No matter how big or small the rest of the government is, the tax base is too low to support it.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#85

Post by Remnant44 »

not_really wrote: post #80
panarky wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The clue that this guy is a right-wing crank is that he blames the problem on "Congress extending the debt limit". The root cause of the problem happens long before the meaningless semiannual debt limit ritual. The root cause is that Congress approved more spending, while also approving tax cuts, so that the spending isn't funded by tax revenue. The whole debt limit fiasco doesn't fix this fundamental problem. The de…

> The clue that this guy is a right-wing crank Stopped reading after seeing a clue that this guy is a far-left extremist.

Who's right in this case...

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#86

Post by sajisiajqha »

slowhand09 wrote: post #76
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #16

We owe a bit more than 1 year's GDP. Most families that own a house owe substantially more than 1 year's income. Last time we reduced the annual deficit to zero, the usual debt hawks all reversed their position and said "this is terrible". We've demonstrated in my lifetime that we can do this. The fact that "we" don't want to right now has more to do with Republican attitudes towards taxation than anything else. MMT…

MMT basically says "its ok, we can just print more money". How did that work for Venuzuela? Lets see... 1.00 US Dollar = 3,615,588.83 Venezuelan Bolívares. The 6 inch thick stack of currency required to buy a roll of toilet paper would be more efficient than the toilet paper. Printing more money just devalues the work product of everyone before that. Republican attitudes about tax? Surely you jest.

[flagged]

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#87

Post by LargeTomato »

jalapenos wrote: post #49
dmckeon wrote: post #5

Congress-people have few incentives to restrain or reduce the national debt. There is plenty of talk, but little action. The event horizon may be distant, but the pull is inexorable. What could possibly solve this? Could we give representatives and senators bonuses for spending less and taxing more?

It's a solved problem - the gold standard. The only thing that makes the current situation tenable is being able to print money. Put simply, the government doesn't actually view it as a problem. If you have an unlimited credit card you never have to repay, that's not a problem for you but for everyone else. Bit of an unfortunate omission from the US constitution really. That's the only way they'd have kept it - other…

Which gold standard? There are many.

Is everything backed by gold? So no loans, debt, or bonds? This is deflationary because the total value of stuff grows but the monetary base stays the same.

Is there a fiat currency backed by gold? How will you avoid the monetary base growing larger than the total quantity of gold in the world? How is this functionally different from today?

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#88

Post by zeroonetwothree »

drawkward wrote: post #22
RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #14

I would take a bet that the U.S. remains a super power longer than Nassim Taleb remains alive. He will go into a literal ‘death spiral’ before the US goes into a figurative ‘death spiral’

Ah, the old, >God is dead. -Nietzsche >Nietzsche is dead. -God

They could both be right

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#89

Post by thehappypm »

johnea wrote: post #31

Wing-nuts do love to spout off about the debt 8-) Except of course when they're making astronomical increases in spending that benefits them. Such as increasing military budgets, tax cuts, and petro subsidy. And of course, while the debt may not be a specific issue, eventually the _interest_ will be. Capitalism has it's benefits, but there is no magical marketto always provide the right answers. We need a serious reo…

If we’re being honest, this is why people vote Trump. They see these as real existential problems (along with China taking over manufacturing, illegal immigration, “woke” culture, and so on).

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#90

Post by blitzar »

chiefalchemist wrote: post #7
dmckeon wrote: post #5

Congress-people have few incentives to restrain or reduce the national debt. There is plenty of talk, but little action. The event horizon may be distant, but the pull is inexorable. What could possibly solve this? Could we give representatives and senators bonuses for spending less and taxing more?

Not sure about that solution, but we could elect representation that does the right thing(s), and not just the thing(s) that get them reelected.

> we elect representation that does the right thing(s), and not just the thing(s) that get them reelected

Every candidate who has stood up and said they will do the right thing (tm) was not elected.

The problem is the "we", the elected representation give people exactly what they want, and in a democracy what they (collectively) deserve.

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