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My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

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Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#81

Post by matt_heimer »

pixl97 wrote: post #44
matt_heimer wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure that the physical embodiment needs to be robotic in nature. I'm a physically abled home owner and need to repair my hvac or plumbing. Instead of paying for someone in the trades to come out and do the work for me why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me? The camera and my voice inputs should allow the AGI to diagnose the issue, order needed parts, and then instr…

>why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me? [meme time] Oh god, oh fuck, we're going full Manna. [/meme time] https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 For those have have not read Manna, this is a huge portion of the premise of the story that AI helmets turn us into automatons that allow the AI to further automate our jobs until we are all unemployed and destitute.

Thanks - I should have worded that better. I'd like an AGI that helped to augment my abilities, not control me. But its still an AGI replacing a trade person, having a master plumber standing over my shoulder was more of what I was thinking of. The AGI having the knowledge is a form of control I guess but it seems acceptable to me.

I hadn't seen manna before, thanks for sharing. There are some good thoughts there. The bit about girls liking Manna because it doesn't hit on them was excellent. The dad character had some good points too.

The examples do seem a bit over the top (likely to drive home the premise). But honestly the verbosity seemed excellent for a new hire scenario. As long as it dynamically scaled down the verbosity of the instructions to match what was needed by each individual user would it really be awful if the managers got replaced?

It is a fine line, the tech being used to add to our knowledge vs making us dumb robots. If it could be kept to teaching, certain types of management, and gamified checklists it wouldn't be the downfall of the human race. However I could easily see it getting to the point where customers are talking to the AGI mounted on your head instead of you and that is scary.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#82

Post by pixl97 »

matt_heimer wrote: post #81
pixl97 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me? [meme time] Oh god, oh fuck, we're going full Manna. [/meme time] https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 For those have have not read Manna, this is a huge portion of the premise of the story that AI helmets turn us into automatons that allow the AI to further automate our jobs until we are all unemployed and destitute.

Thanks - I should have worded that better. I'd like an AGI that helped to augment my abilities, not control me. But its still an AGI replacing a trade person, having a master plumber standing over my shoulder was more of what I was thinking of. The AGI having the knowledge is a form of control I guess but it seems acceptable to me. I hadn't seen manna before, thanks for sharing. There are some good thoughts there. Th…

Honestly Manna is a story about AI way before it's time, because it captures that most of the battle we see now, it isn't going to be about AI at all. But corporate datamining in order to dehumanize you.

I mean, this is OpenAI today "By using our product you are training our product to be you, please insert $$$ to avoid this scenario"

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#83

Post by gumballindie »

kiba wrote: post #72
gumballindie wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI is a cult. I dont quite understand why they are given so much airtime other than wanting to depress tech wages and drive traffic. Their products dont work as advertised and are built on theft.

I am taking their mission statement seriously even though I am seriously skeptical about AGI. But they don't take their mission statement with any seriousness.

I have no doubt their mission is serious. It's dead serious. That's why they are willing to steal without a single drop of concern for the people's who's lifes they are affecting. And have no issue gaslighting people into thinking that's ok. "Because AI learns just like humans". At the end of the day, after decades of works all they have to show for a procedural bullshit generator. I'd be desperate to show progress too. Still, I wouldn't steal.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#84

Post by mechagodzilla »

matt_heimer wrote: post #73
mechagodzilla wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even in that very optimistic vision of the future: * You don't have the tools or supplies on hand (just let that pipe keep flooding your basement until an amazon delivery arrives!), and many of them are expensive and sufficiently specialized that a homeowner might only need them 2-3 times in a lifetime. * You don't have any training for using the tools if you had them. * You might not be physically capable of doing t…

That's not optimism, its pessimism. Some wealth company building an app to sell to DIYers that puts trade people out of work all in order to make money seems unlikely to you? * Every time I've encountered a home owner with a burst pipe or flooding scenario their immediate problem was lack of knowledge on they different ways to shut off the water supply. And if the problem is something as simple as lack of a wrench th…

I just think the impact of such a device would be on the order of "a marginally better youtube for DIYers" rather than "put all the trade workers out of business." I'm not even convinced a lot of the more recent AI work will result in a net productivity gain, vs the productivity drag associated with increased spam and other AI-generated garbage. Will ChatGPT-like software manage to displace more workers than, say, mail-merge running on a 1980s computer? I'm not sure I'd take that bet. Self-checkout lines are a good analogy, in that they've been around for over 20 years now, and they're still a somewhat marginal productivity improvement over regular cashiers.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#85

Post by pixl97 »

gumballindie wrote: post #68
pixl97 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyones products/lives are built on theft. I mean you paid for that alphabet right, and understanding those forces of physics?

This argument is so 2023.

Damn singularity accelerating timelines and meme-cycling.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#86

Post by dbish »

whynotminot wrote: post #74
dbish wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s also barely clarified and has a ton of false precision problems, which I’d expect a researcher who works in the field not to have. Why 10% vs 20% or 15%, no real reason, just vibes, but it gets clicks.

At some level, isn’t any prediction about the future that involves too many variables somewhat always going to come down to vibes when trying to create a percentage confidence level? Is there a way to actually mathematically quantify this better? When people make predictions with percentages like this, I understand what they’re trying to communicate, even if the math isn’t precise. There’s a reason all his percentage…

There’s no reason to use numbers then. Use words and don’t hide behind sounding precise and mathematical

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#87

Post by whynotminot »

dbish wrote: post #86
whynotminot wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At some level, isn’t any prediction about the future that involves too many variables somewhat always going to come down to vibes when trying to create a percentage confidence level? Is there a way to actually mathematically quantify this better? When people make predictions with percentages like this, I understand what they’re trying to communicate, even if the math isn’t precise. There’s a reason all his percentage…

There’s no reason to use numbers then. Use words and don’t hide behind sounding precise and mathematical

Maybe for you. I actually do think something meaningful is communicated when someone says “I’m about 60% confident in this” versus saying “I’m fairly confident in this.”

I don’t take it as him trying to put on a veneer of precision on what he’s saying. In fact it feels kinda obtuse to assume that’s what he’s doing.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#88

Post by truculent »

feverzsj wrote: post #16

My AI timelines says next AI winter will come in 10 years, when people find it's a vaporware ... again.

Even if we had no new developments in AI, the effects of the current SotA would be massive over the next decade. There are myriad tools already built on or incorporating AI to deliver real value.

Ignoring the fact that wild science fiction has become totally mundane within the last 10 years is putting your head in the sand.

Re: My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)

#89

Post by echelon »

tedajax wrote: post #79
echelon wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't draw that conclusion from what I said at all. These are tools . Good web comics and fan fiction require creativity. They're low cost, but high effort endeavors that are achievable by solo creators. Now there's a path appearing that will give this same class of people the tools to reach new creative heights that most could never achieve by themselves. This is a good thing. It's a tool. You still have to be a…

Believing AI tools are going to give people anything approaching Pixar capabilities demonstrates your ignorance perfectly.

I'm definitely not ignorant, because I work directly in this field. The things happening in academia, within my company, and with competitors will blow your mind.

Let's circle back on this soon.

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