Giant batteries drain economics of gas power plants

Post by bumby » Tue, Nov 21, 2023, 5:19 PM UTC

s1artibartfast wrote: post #76

bumby wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why call this political uncertainty as opposed to economic uncertainty? I'm assuming this is because so much of the energy market is directed through political mechanisms like subsidies, research funding etc. It's the political uncertainty that undergirds the economic uncertainty.

Not to mention taxes, mandates, sanctions , and even wars

Post by bumby » Tue, Nov 21, 2023, 5:42 PM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #71

bumby wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now do it with volume. Plus, aren't you forgetting that electric vehicles need an motor too? Also, I think you mean 80k lbs, not 80 tons? And it's the range + time that's a killer. Recharging time would likely be a deal breaker even if you could get the same cargo capacity. FWIW, I agree that electric trucking is the future, just disagree how close we are to that as a reality. My main gripe is how the problem tends t…

You're right. It's a 5% hit, not a 2% hit. Trucks spend a lot of time loading, unloading and on mandatory driver rest breaks. Charging can and will be done during those times. The biggest expense in a trucking operation is diesel. Trucking has cut-throat margins. Once electrification starts in the industry, everyone will switch quickly, or go bankrupt. Some routes will be hard to electrify, but the cost savings on th…

Post by bumby » Tue, Nov 21, 2023, 5:46 PM UTC

dpierce9 wrote: post #80

bumby wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why call this political uncertainty as opposed to economic uncertainty? I'm assuming this is because so much of the energy market is directed through political mechanisms like subsidies, research funding etc. It's the political uncertainty that undergirds the economic uncertainty.

Sure, but why is that special for gas plants? CTs are expensive to run so if they run less that is generally good for people using electricity. I am not saying political uncertainty doesn’t exist or that the grid systems are apolitical or that building plants is easy. I don’t know much about the UK grid or rules which is why I was asking for specifics on what makes this specific case political.

Post by WirelessGigabit » Tue, Nov 21, 2023, 5:48 PM UTC

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #78

bell-cot wrote: post #16

The reality is much more complex than "batteries replace gas" - > Developers can no longer use financial modelling that assumes gas power plants are used constantly throughout their 20-year-plus lifetime, analysts said. > Instead, modellers need to predict how much gas generation is needed during times of peak demand and to compensate for the intermittency of renewable sources that are hard to anticipate. > "It does…

A major problem here is that intermittency isn't consistent. Okay, solar doesn't generate at night, so you would need to charge some batteries during the day and discharge them at night. Maybe that's fine. But solar also generates less in winter. If we want to transition heating from oil and gas to electric, we need a lot of generation in the winter. If we build some more solar to do that, now there's way more than e…

Post by triplepoint217 » Tue, Nov 21, 2023, 6:01 PM UTC

marcosdumay wrote: post #56

triplepoint217 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The nice thing is as long as these markets stay reasonably competitive, economics can figure out what to do with excess renewables. When renewables are in excess, the spot (instantaneous) energy price will drop to near zero (or sometimes negative in weird situations). That is good for existing (short term) batteries (they can recharge cheaply), but it will also provide price signals to people considering investing in…

> the spot (instantaneous) energy price will drop to near zero Yes, and that means generation will become unprofitable. We seem to be a decade or so away from the point where the investment on generation can't be decided by direct ROI. And nobody is preparing for this. Governments need a long time to regulate that kind of thing... so we can expect some problems on the near future.