Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't understand why this is downvoted. This is a classic thing to do with deep learning: take something that has a solution that is expensive to compute, and then train a deep learning model from that. And along the way, your model might yield improvements, too, and you can layer in additional features, interpolate at finer-grained resolution, etc. If nothing else, the forward pass in a deep learning model is almo…
> the forward pass in a deep learning model is almost certainly way faster than simulating the next step in a numerical simulation Is this the case in most of such refinements (architecture wise)?
GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
81–90 of 310 posts
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#82> GraphCast makes forecasts at the high resolution of 0.25 degrees longitude/latitude (28km x 28km at the equator). Any way to run this at even higher resolution, like 1 km? Could this resolve terrain forced effects like lenticular clouds on mountain tops?
One big problem is input weather data. It's resolution is poor.
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#83Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#84Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#85Curious. How can AI/ML perform on a problem that is, as far as I understand, inherently chaotic / unpredictable ? It sounds like a fundamental contradiction to me.
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#86Curious. How can AI/ML perform on a problem that is, as far as I understand, inherently chaotic / unpredictable ? It sounds like a fundamental contradiction to me.
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#87Curious. How can AI/ML perform on a problem that is, as far as I understand, inherently chaotic / unpredictable ? It sounds like a fundamental contradiction to me.
Edit: I do see a benefit to the idea if you compare it to the Chaos Theorists “gaining intuition” about systems.
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#88Curious. How can AI/ML perform on a problem that is, as far as I understand, inherently chaotic / unpredictable ? It sounds like a fundamental contradiction to me.
IMO a chaotic system will not allow for long-term forecast, but if there is any type of pattern to recognize (and I would assume there are plenty), an AI/ML model should be able to create short-term prediction with high accuracy.
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#89Curious. How can AI/ML perform on a problem that is, as far as I understand, inherently chaotic / unpredictable ? It sounds like a fundamental contradiction to me.
IMO a chaotic system will not allow for long-term forecast, but if there is any type of pattern to recognize (and I would assume there are plenty), an AI/ML model should be able to create short-term prediction with high accuracy.
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#90Does anybody know if its possible to initialize the model using GFS initial conditions used for the GFS HRES model? If so, where can I find this file and how can I use it? Any help would be greatly appreciated!
ECMWF publishes a tool that can help bootstrap simple inference runs with different AI models [1] (they have plugins for several). You could write a tool that re-maps a GDAS analysis to "look like" ERA-5 or IFS analysis, and then try feeding it into GraphCast. But YMMV if the integration is stable or not - models like PanguWx do not work off-the-shelf with this approach.