Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

We have decided to pause driverless operations across all of our fleets

twitter.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 395 posts

Re: We have decided to pause driverless operations across all of our fleets

#81

Post by thereisnospork »

polalavik wrote: post #17
xnx wrote: post #12

This is a good move on Cruise's part. Cruise is still nowhere near the maturity level that Waymo was at when Waymo first started driving on public roads. On the other hand, we definitely need a real competitor to Waymo. It doesn't seem likely, but hopefully some combination of Cruise, Apple(?), Tesla, or another player will be able to have a feasible alternative to Waymo's Driver.

Out of all the tech problems to solve, driverless cars or driverless taxis has always baffled me. It’s a very complex thing to solve with a zillion edge cases. And for what net gain? What incredible inconvenience are we trying to solve? Lack of good public transit? Let’s solve that instead. Millions of cars driverless or not are not a great solution to anything.

I can't help but feel like this is a disingenuous criticism. The average American spends about 10pct of their waking life driving[0], nevermind the millions of people spending their professional output driving trucks and cabs. Please note that society has found the status quo preferable to public transit, as much as you (or I) might disagree.

[0]A 45 minute commute two ways + errands out of 16 waking hours. I for one would like that 10 percent of my life back.

Re: We have decided to pause driverless operations across all of our fleets

#82

Post by lotu »

diebeforei485 wrote: post #67
mathieuh wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re not the only one. It seems to me we should be trying to get rid of cars in favour of mass transport or two-wheel personal transport. Having personal transport in the form of cars makes little sense in cities where space is at a premium. Where I live, to get across the city on public transport takes 40 minutes and a bus change. I can cycle it in 20. Replacing human-driven cars with driverless cars is going to m…

The limiting factor for increasing bus frequency and adding new routes is the lack of operators. Having self-driving buses will obviously help in cities. And given the higher momentum, the margin for error is lower for self-driving buses and it's better to start with cars.

I’m not sure self driving buses are possible with out something approaching general AI. The bus driver needs to be able to respond in real time to questions like does this bus go to X. They also need to be able to communicate nonverbally with passengers waiting at bus stops.

Re: We have decided to pause driverless operations across all of our fleets

#83

Post by sp332 »

uejfiweun wrote: post #22

Are self-driving cars actually going to be lucrative? Yes, the progress is promising, but it seems to me (as an observer that knows nothing) that things aren't very scalable. - It seems like every city pretty much requires a custom-tailored solution, and they still haven't solved the "downtown" problem. - It's far more of a regulatory minefield than a pure software business model. - The cars themselves, in addition t…

They are lucrative in the sense that they divert energy from trains and other public transportation infrastructure, keeping demand for cars high.

Re: We have decided to pause driverless operations across all of our fleets

#84

Post by kuschku »

kevindamm wrote: post #23
polalavik wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of all the tech problems to solve, driverless cars or driverless taxis has always baffled me. It’s a very complex thing to solve with a zillion edge cases. And for what net gain? What incredible inconvenience are we trying to solve? Lack of good public transit? Let’s solve that instead. Millions of cars driverless or not are not a great solution to anything.

A single driverless car can substitute for multiple car owners' vehicles if a schedule can be worked out. Long haul freight can have a potentially more efficient alternative to human truck drivers. Accident rates for a horse-level AI are significantly lower than the typical distracted human. There are reasons to pursue this problem.

Roads could be half the size they are now if a schedule could be worked out. Congestion pricing already exists.

And yet, that issue hasn't been solved. Instead, rush hour remains a thing.

Re: We have decided to pause driverless operations across all of our fleets

#85

Post by janalsncm »

melling wrote: post #64
polalavik wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of all the tech problems to solve, driverless cars or driverless taxis has always baffled me. It’s a very complex thing to solve with a zillion edge cases. And for what net gain? What incredible inconvenience are we trying to solve? Lack of good public transit? Let’s solve that instead. Millions of cars driverless or not are not a great solution to anything.

“What incredible inconvenience are we trying to solve?” 40,000 deaths in the United States every year. Hundreds of thousands of costly accidents We can’t get great transportation even in the New York City area. We have 0 miles of high-speed rail, while China built 25,000 it’s great that you want to start building some mass transit, but it’ll take a century if we start now. Let’s start by having trains take you to the…

China has 25k miles of bullet trains and China accounted for a third of the cars sold in 2022. A third. This is a country that limits imports and even limits the number of drivers in some cities. So it’s silly to suggest public transit can replace cars.

ETA: Replace all cars.

So as long as we will have cars, we might as well make them safer.

> getting self driving cars that are all electric will be a big win.

I will say that this is still far away and the goals are orthogonal. We have electric cars now, the technology is proven. But it will take a generation of cars to replace the existing ICE vehicles. If and when self-driving vehicles are available it will take a generation to replace existing ones.

Re: We have decided to pause driverless operations across all of our fleets

#86

Post by mertd »

bumby wrote: post #55
stickfigure wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people don't live in urban centers. Unless you plan on dismantling the suburbs, we're stuck with cars of one form or another. Taxis, driverless or otherwise, are "public transport".

It depends on how you define “urban.” The way the census defines it, less than 20% of the US population is non-urban.

For the sake of discussion here urban means not dependent on car for majority of errands.

Re: We have decided to pause driverless operations across all of our fleets

#87

Post by freeopinion »

polalavik wrote: post #17
xnx wrote: post #12

This is a good move on Cruise's part. Cruise is still nowhere near the maturity level that Waymo was at when Waymo first started driving on public roads. On the other hand, we definitely need a real competitor to Waymo. It doesn't seem likely, but hopefully some combination of Cruise, Apple(?), Tesla, or another player will be able to have a feasible alternative to Waymo's Driver.

Out of all the tech problems to solve, driverless cars or driverless taxis has always baffled me. It’s a very complex thing to solve with a zillion edge cases. And for what net gain? What incredible inconvenience are we trying to solve? Lack of good public transit? Let’s solve that instead. Millions of cars driverless or not are not a great solution to anything.

Fixed rail is not a perfect solution, either. Nor are millions of mopeds. Same goes for articulated buses, or hang gliders.

But be patient. Let more pieces emerge. Let things evolve. Maybe driverless cars will evolve into passengerless engines. Then people own their own passenger cars that are engineless and just hop from one conga line to another to get to their destination.

Once you have driverless solved, you might increase traffic density immensely. Maybe safety goes way up and you can reduce the weight of these vehicles by 500kg. So fuel consumption drops dramatically, road wear drops dramatically, etc. Maybe it allows ambulances to fly down roadways because computers are way better at getting out of the way. Maybe it causes the auto industry to collapse because we go from 3 autos per home, to 0.8 cars per household because you can just summon one whenever you want. Maybe it doesn't do any of this.

The Pony Express was revolutionary, but only lasted 18 months before the telegraph sent it into the history books. Now we have pocket phones. So was the Pony Express a stupid innovation? Or does progress move in zigzag lines?

Re: We have decided to pause driverless operations across all of our fleets

#88

Post by mertd »

ZoomerCretin wrote: post #78
stickfigure wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people don't live in urban centers. Unless you plan on dismantling the suburbs, we're stuck with cars of one form or another. Taxis, driverless or otherwise, are "public transport".

When those suburbs are within the city limits of large cities, yes absolutely they should be dismantled and densified. There's no justification for using government power to create a housing cartel during a housing shortage. Further, mixed use development like corner stores, restaurants, and grocery stores where people live will eliminate a large fraction of vehicle trips entirely.

Simply ending exclusive zoning would do wonders for American towns.

Re: We have decided to pause driverless operations across all of our fleets

#89

Post by pcchristie »

polalavik wrote: post #17
xnx wrote: post #12

This is a good move on Cruise's part. Cruise is still nowhere near the maturity level that Waymo was at when Waymo first started driving on public roads. On the other hand, we definitely need a real competitor to Waymo. It doesn't seem likely, but hopefully some combination of Cruise, Apple(?), Tesla, or another player will be able to have a feasible alternative to Waymo's Driver.

Out of all the tech problems to solve, driverless cars or driverless taxis has always baffled me. It’s a very complex thing to solve with a zillion edge cases. And for what net gain? What incredible inconvenience are we trying to solve? Lack of good public transit? Let’s solve that instead. Millions of cars driverless or not are not a great solution to anything.

You've got a lot of answers already but ... wow...

Allow me to say first of all that I agree we should have denser cities/towns, better public transport to get around, and we should all use it more. But some stats (no citation, these are rattling around in my memory, feel free to fact check). 90% of cars are not utilised 90% of the time. That is insane wastage for energy intensively manufactured, expensive pieces of equipment. 1/3 of city centres are dedicated to parking (probably a US stat). Huge amount of valuable land unlocked.

Imagine unlocking that capital and land inefficiency. Then imagine cars halve in size and drive bumper to bumper and twice the speed. That could be a 2 x 2 x 2 improvement in commuting.

Don't get me wrong, even if we grant the pessimists on FSD that it won't be till 2100, that's a huge prize to be aiming at.

Re: We have decided to pause driverless operations across all of our fleets

#90

Post by Manuel_D »

polalavik wrote: post #17
xnx wrote: post #12

This is a good move on Cruise's part. Cruise is still nowhere near the maturity level that Waymo was at when Waymo first started driving on public roads. On the other hand, we definitely need a real competitor to Waymo. It doesn't seem likely, but hopefully some combination of Cruise, Apple(?), Tesla, or another player will be able to have a feasible alternative to Waymo's Driver.

Out of all the tech problems to solve, driverless cars or driverless taxis has always baffled me. It’s a very complex thing to solve with a zillion edge cases. And for what net gain? What incredible inconvenience are we trying to solve? Lack of good public transit? Let’s solve that instead. Millions of cars driverless or not are not a great solution to anything.

Public transit doesn't scale outside of dense urban areas. North America doesn't have the population density to make public transit viable outside specific metros like Chicago, NYC, Boston, DC. And said metros already do have public transit. So cars are the main viable option, and self-driving cars present the opportunity to regain time lost to commuting.

Less discussed, but probably even more important are driverless trucks. There's actually a shortage of truck drivers in the US, since it's a job with pretty bad work life balance and unpredictable hours. Self driving trucks could potentially be huge in terms of improving freight costs.

Post reply on HN