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Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

theeyewall.com

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Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#81
post #61

We did find clay tablets with inscriptions from earlier civilizations. If all papers, books and newspaper gradually go digital, just electric charges or magnetic blips in racks - few thousand years down the road our civilization would be virtually traceless or at least those parts of it. Nothing is forever. Just a random thought.

I think you posted on the wrong story but you eloquently described my feelings on ACM going all digital.

Hilarious. Yes, that's about ACM actually.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#82
post #51

This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.

If I heard that Otis exploded after visiting Acapulco, I wouldn't really consider that unexpected, but admittedly that's only based on personal anecdata.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#83
post #51

This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.

I guessed the correct Acapulco then hypothesized that Otis was something being transported by truck to there. I even thought that Cape Canaveral or a lab like CERN would be a more likely destination for dangerous things that people like us would care about.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#84
post #47
post #7

Cloudflare blocked me from accessing it. edit: wow, that was some unexpected downvotes

It is also on archive sites. Can anyone recommend a good one-click firefox extension to open an archive copy of the current page?

Maybe this one https://github.com/dessant/web-archives

I'm using it on my phone. It gave me this https://archive.ph/20231026233758/https://theeyewall.com/try... with a few taps.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#85
post #70
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What forecasting models / techniques are prevalent in disease forecasting?

There's usually a mix of statistical models (some traditional time series methods, some neural network based) and mathematical models (i.e. SIR models). None of them fully capture all the dynamics we need to.

Differential equations make the world go round.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#86
post #77
post #51

This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.

This tells me you don't know Jean-Paul Belmondo's movie The Man from Acapulco. Seriously watch that movie.

One of my favorite actors from the non-Hollywood movies. Oh, and that movie is originally titled 'Le Magnifique' to help searching for it.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#87
I think we'll see more of this sort of thing. Weather models have been made in a climate somewhat different than the current one and those models are relatively accurate when modeling the past. As more data rolls in about anomalies like this the models will get updated and they'll become more accurate again in specific cases that are outliers right now, but they may end up slightly less accurate overall (due to the increased bandwidth of possible outcomes). This happens in almost every field where modeling is used to predict complex systems. You can't guarantee both great performance on past data and great performance on data that you haven't seen yet, there is always the risk that you've lost generality as you increased accuracy.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#88
post #51

This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.

I assumed Otis was a indy dev library project and Acapulco to be a code name for a upcoming release.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#89
post #82
post #51

This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.

If I heard that Otis exploded after visiting Acapulco, I wouldn't really consider that unexpected, but admittedly that's only based on personal anecdata.

It’s unexpected on the way back, not on the way there.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#90
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's usually a mix of statistical models (some traditional time series methods, some neural network based) and mathematical models (i.e. SIR models). None of them fully capture all the dynamics we need to.

Differential equations make the world go round.

That, and conservation laws. (Angular momentum)
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