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Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

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Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#81

Post by jcrites »

hutzlibu wrote: post #73
dave4420 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I’m being sloppy because I’m on my phone and can’t be bothered editing.

I think it reads fine, as in Kremlin did this and that and Wagner did this and that. Wagner just stands for the group.

I'm responding to the use of the pronoun "himself":

> Personally, if this was a coup, I’d say Wagner would have taken control of important infrastructure by now ... Or been killed/arrested himself.

To anyone who isn't familiar with Wagner Group, that seems to be describing Wagner as an individual person who can be "killed or arrested himself".

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#82

Post by hutzlibu »

brutusborn wrote: post #77
hutzlibu wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It definitely is real, that the head of Wagner, which acted as Putins man of brute shadow force - is now an enemy of Putin. This was coming since a while, since Prigoshin stepped over the line many times and he refused the ultimatum by the Russian Ministry of Defence, to put Wagner Forces tightly under MoD control. And now things are escalating. Everything else is filled with deepfakes, old footage and co But Wagner…

What makes you so sure?

Because russian state TV is a legit source of Putin speeches?

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#83

Post by ljlolel »

ilyt wrote: post #21
rixrax wrote: post #4

Will current regime resort to use of nuclear weapons against Wagner formations as they approach Moscow? After all, the state and the power regime are facing an existential risk.

While russia nuking themselves would be hilarious end of the current clown fiesta, I don't think they are that stupid, there is no way to explain that to public in favourable way to whichever side is left standing

Easy mis information claiming it was US that nuked Wagner

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#84

Post by mtlmtlmtlmtl »

pc_edwin wrote: post #9
rixrax wrote: post #4

Will current regime resort to use of nuclear weapons against Wagner formations as they approach Moscow? After all, the state and the power regime are facing an existential risk.

I've had the exact thought, it looks as if we are further descending into apocalyptic territory. You have people capable of extreme destruction being cornered into an existential state, leaving them with very little rational options. This is when the irrational options starts appearing very rational.. True or not, what if this appears like a western backed coup to Putin and his inner circle. The kind of retaliations…

I could see the probability of a deranged Putin ordering nuclear strikes within Russia going up, but I think the probability of his order being followed will go down accordingly. It's not as if Putin can actually launch the nukes unilaterally.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#85

Post by dagaci »

This like AOE2, where an enemy quietly cuts through the huge forest and the enemy suddenly appears in your base when most of your army is at the front. Your front is wrecked if you run back, and your game is wrecked if you don’t.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#86

Post by watwut »

brutusborn wrote: post #77
hutzlibu wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It definitely is real, that the head of Wagner, which acted as Putins man of brute shadow force - is now an enemy of Putin. This was coming since a while, since Prigoshin stepped over the line many times and he refused the ultimatum by the Russian Ministry of Defence, to put Wagner Forces tightly under MoD control. And now things are escalating. Everything else is filled with deepfakes, old footage and co But Wagner…

What makes you so sure?

Not him, but for the last two years, I aggressively unfollowed all sources that posted wrong or premature information. I kept only those who limited themselves to what was confirmed and openly admitted error in case of mistake.

It is doable. With that strategy, I get more cautious news, not the hottest of the hot stuff, but I am pretty sure thing is happening now.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#87

Post by hutzlibu »

jcrites wrote: post #81
hutzlibu wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it reads fine, as in Kremlin did this and that and Wagner did this and that. Wagner just stands for the group.

I'm responding to the use of the pronoun "himself": > Personally, if this was a coup, I’d say Wagner would have taken control of important infrastructure by now ... Or been killed/arrested himself . To anyone who isn't familiar with Wagner Group, that seems to be describing Wagner as an individual person who can be "killed or arrested himself".

Ah yes, that is wrong, but I think people who are into russian geopolitics (like me) autocorrected it and had the meaning of the person arrested automatically transfered to Prigoshin as head of Wagner.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#88

Post by diimdeep »

jussij wrote: post #64
brutusborn wrote: post #53

Does anyone have sources for this stuff? I am seeing a lot of conjecture and not a lot of substance. Is this whole thing based on a couple telegram videos? Is there anything to suggest they aren’t just propaganda deepfakes?

There are plenty of youtube videos showing Wagner forces control the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. They can't all be fake.

Here is local news agency in Rostov with plenty of media https://t.me/privet_rostov_ru

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#89

Post by mtlmtlmtlmtl »

ljlolel wrote: post #83
ilyt wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While russia nuking themselves would be hilarious end of the current clown fiesta, I don't think they are that stupid, there is no way to explain that to public in favourable way to whichever side is left standing

Easy mis information claiming it was US that nuked Wagner

Easy in what sense? Easy to make that claim? Sure. Easy to actually convince people? I seriously doubt it.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#90

Post by topspin »

rwmj wrote: post #49
rpadovani wrote: post #39

I am curious on how this will reflect on the Ukraine invasion: as far as I understand, Wagner was a huge source of soldiers on the front lines. I am sure this coup, however it will ends, is a major source of distraction from the war. Meanwhile, Ukraine is pushing east: will they be able to use this coup to liberate some territories?

Surely at least part of the regular Russian army will have to be pulled back to defend Moscow.

The big question, the only question that really matters at this point, is will the Russian military remain loyal?

If they don't then it's all over for Putin.

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