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Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

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Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#81

Post by thunky »

whywhywhywhy wrote: post #79
voisin wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many people wouldn’t buy a Meta product if it would save their life. Airball by Meta doesn’t mean anything with respect to the market potential.

They sold plenty of them, 20 million which is by all metrics a success. It’s getting those people to put them on beyond the initial honeymoon period that’s seemingly the issue. Everyone I know who bought one raved about it and considers it a great experience it's just the barrier to charging something then putting it on your face is really huge.

> It’s getting those people to put them on beyond the initial honeymoon period that’s seemingly the issue

And that's a huge issue because it means they're likely never going to buy a face computer again until the form factor dramatically changes. Which suggests that the primary target audience for the new Apple headset has already left the market.

From Meta's perspective, 20 million devices sitting in a closet generating zero future revenue is not a success.

Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#82

Post by conductr »

throw74775 wrote: post #65
conductr wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Value proposition is known and high. My perceived value on Vision is 90% chance that this $3.5k device will be collecting dust on a shelf

All you have to do is try one in an Apple store when they come out, and then you’ll be able to get a better understanding. It’s easy to just claim it’s worthless without firsthand experience. It’s not so easy to discount the giant investment and expertise that have been brought to bear on developing it.

Maybe I’m old but I recall a time in my life where I never thought a gps, cell phone, palm pilot, etc would be very useful even after seeing them in person and seeing other people using them. Many of them I bought as I just liked tech and they collected dust. Until a certain point they did become useful. Usually around iteration #3. But I’ve personally found that v1 is not usually for me on these types of things. I’m more like the average consumer as i just don’t value the novelty of tech as much as initial adopters do. I’ve invested too much in failed products and categories at this point.

The investment on building a product is not even remotely considered by the market when a product comes out. If there’s no worthwhile utility, it’s going to be DOA and they’ll have to keep plowing money in hoping they can get to that iteration #3 where the value proposition becomes apparent. It’s probably why they want to release it and let third party devs create the value while they refine the tech and likely improve the consumer investment (eg. non Pro version coming next I assume)

Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#83

Post by throw74775 »

conductr wrote: post #82
throw74775 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All you have to do is try one in an Apple store when they come out, and then you’ll be able to get a better understanding. It’s easy to just claim it’s worthless without firsthand experience. It’s not so easy to discount the giant investment and expertise that have been brought to bear on developing it.

Maybe I’m old but I recall a time in my life where I never thought a gps, cell phone, palm pilot, etc would be very useful even after seeing them in person and seeing other people using them. Many of them I bought as I just liked tech and they collected dust. Until a certain point they did become useful. Usually around iteration #3. But I’ve personally found that v1 is not usually for me on these types of things. I’m…

> The investment on building a product is not even remotely considered by the market when a product comes out.

You are missing the point. The point is that to think that Apple of all companies doesn’t know this is absurd.

I think the value proposition is blindingly obvious. The big question for me is whether the device is comfortable to wear for long periods.

Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#84

Post by conductr »

throw74775 wrote: post #83
conductr wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I’m old but I recall a time in my life where I never thought a gps, cell phone, palm pilot, etc would be very useful even after seeing them in person and seeing other people using them. Many of them I bought as I just liked tech and they collected dust. Until a certain point they did become useful. Usually around iteration #3. But I’ve personally found that v1 is not usually for me on these types of things. I’m…

> The investment on building a product is not even remotely considered by the market when a product comes out. You are missing the point. The point is that to think that Apple of all companies doesn’t know this is absurd. I think the value proposition is blindingly obvious. The big question for me is whether the device is comfortable to wear for long periods.

Value as a toy/trinket is obvious. But it's not exactly priced as such. So it will not sell. Comfort aside, I'm not even convinced why I would want to wear this for long periods of time. It needs some sort of killer app to really help me connect the dots.

We obviously just have different takes. I would not be surprised at all if you are more correct than me. But I also don't view "Apple of all companies" to be infallible, this could very well flop. They are more capable than most companies in their ability to absorb the losses for an extended period of time to see if the market ever materializes.

Edit: so I did some external reading and basically agree with this take while respecting your bullishness

> What matters is can we find the killer App – the unstoppable use-case. ..... The Success of Vision pro and Apple’s push into “Spacial computing” rests with developers coming up with amazing ideas. Otherwise, it’s bloody cool, but isn’t compelling enough.

https://eftm.com/2023/06/i-tried-apple-vision-pro-its-the-mo...

Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#85

Post by throw74775 »

conductr wrote: post #84
throw74775 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The investment on building a product is not even remotely considered by the market when a product comes out. You are missing the point. The point is that to think that Apple of all companies doesn’t know this is absurd. I think the value proposition is blindingly obvious. The big question for me is whether the device is comfortable to wear for long periods.

Value as a toy/trinket is obvious. But it's not exactly priced as such. So it will not sell. Comfort aside, I'm not even convinced why I would want to wear this for long periods of time. It needs some sort of killer app to really help me connect the dots. We obviously just have different takes. I would not be surprised at all if you are more correct than me. But I also don't view "Apple of all companies" to be infall…

> Value as a toy/trinket is obvious.

It’s hard to accept that you can only see this as a toy or trinket. No serious observer is characterizing it that way even if they are uncertain about its future.

I’m not saying apple is infallible. I’m saying it’s silly for people who have so little experience by comparison to be confidently dismissive. It’s obvious that Apple is less fallible than random commentators. I’m not saying they can’t fail, only that if you don’t don’t see the value, that should make you curious about why you don’t see it and why Apple does.

Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#86

Post by conductr »

throw74775 wrote: post #85
conductr wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Value as a toy/trinket is obvious. But it's not exactly priced as such. So it will not sell. Comfort aside, I'm not even convinced why I would want to wear this for long periods of time. It needs some sort of killer app to really help me connect the dots. We obviously just have different takes. I would not be surprised at all if you are more correct than me. But I also don't view "Apple of all companies" to be infall…

> Value as a toy/trinket is obvious. It’s hard to accept that you can only see this as a toy or trinket. No serious observer is characterizing it that way even if they are uncertain about its future. I’m not saying apple is infallible. I’m saying it’s silly for people who have so little experience by comparison to be confidently dismissive. It’s obvious that Apple is less fallible than random commentators. I’m not sa…

Wow man you really are hell bent on this and how I should feel about it. IMO pretty much all consumer tech starts as a toy until some higher utility/use case is found. They’ve not initially presented one, that I feel is compelling, so it’s still in the toy category. Obviously apple sees and wants things to mature (likely via third party dev efforts).

It reminds me of when the first iPhone came out. I was so excited. Then I learned it didn’t have GPS. I felt like screen and touch stuff was cool, but that location was what was needed to make it really shine. It didn’t get it until v3 and I waited. In that case, I at least knew what I was waiting specifically. This is more of a wait and see type thing.

I think Apple will probably have more success with this than any one else would. But I just don’t see it as a “want” and certainly not as a “need” at this point. Like I’ve said, when price comes down or a killer app surfaces that’s another game and I may change my opinion. I’m talking initially taking off as a product/category, as not likely. It will be a slow hard battle similar to others in this space.

Re: Vision Pro’s Big Reveal

#87

Post by theodric »

throw74775 wrote: post #63
theodric wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A MBP has a keyboard, several hours of battery life, and a couple decades of precedent that has allowed a large catalog of applications to form. The iGooglyEyePro isn't there yet.

From the keynote you can see that it supports Bluetooth keyboards and a giant set of apps and media out of the gate, and its OS is a continuation of that couple of decades of legacy.

Supports!= has
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