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IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

theguardian.com

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Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#81

Post by tito »

kypro wrote: post #59

Assume we hit 1.5C and "nothing happens" does this help the cause? While I'm very concerned about how unchecked climate change could impact future crop yields I also worry that having a hard line like this probably won't help convince anyone, and could counter intuitively act as a "I told you so" for climate denialists when the world doesn't fall apart as soon as we hit 1.5C. A lot of the more convincing arguments I…

Yeah the headlines end up all sounding similar after awhile.

Another challenge is the report itself is pretty dry and emotionless (for example, every line of the PDF is numbered).

Here's a link to the new Synthesis report referenced in the article: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/

Here's the "summary for policymakers": https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#82

Post by robertoandred »

swader999 wrote: post #42

It was refreshing to see Greta delete her "were all doomed in five years tweet from 2018" last week. They also took down the signs in Glacier Park that predicted the glaciers would be gone by now near where I live.

That's of course not what her tweet said. Did you intentionally misread it or just get it through an incorrect grapevine?

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#83

Post by DiggyJohnson »

numbers_guy wrote: post #70
kypro wrote: post #59

Assume we hit 1.5C and "nothing happens" does this help the cause? While I'm very concerned about how unchecked climate change could impact future crop yields I also worry that having a hard line like this probably won't help convince anyone, and could counter intuitively act as a "I told you so" for climate denialists when the world doesn't fall apart as soon as we hit 1.5C. A lot of the more convincing arguments I…

What the fuck do you even mean with "nothing happens", when the climate has been changing noticeably for the past decade already?

[flagged]

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#84

Post by tablespoon »

Rygian wrote: post #8

For anyone interested in what 1.5C represents, I can't recommend enough the Climate Fresk [1] exercise. It's not just the droughts and floods, the heatwaves, the changes in birds, insects, crop yields, … Include permafrost melting and releasing greenhouse gasses, civil unrest in populated areas that won't be livable anymore, unstable food production, and quite a few other causes and consequences. It's a feedback loop…

> ... the changes in ... crop yields...

How would they even predict/model that? Have they modeled all the different plausible crops and agricultural techniques, which regional environmental conditions they're most suited for, and the transitions between them based on regional climate change effects?

It's one thing to model a natural system, but seems quite a bit more complicated to model a system where human technology and decision-making is extremely significant.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#85

Post by aaomidi »

numbers_guy wrote: post #70
kypro wrote: post #59

Assume we hit 1.5C and "nothing happens" does this help the cause? While I'm very concerned about how unchecked climate change could impact future crop yields I also worry that having a hard line like this probably won't help convince anyone, and could counter intuitively act as a "I told you so" for climate denialists when the world doesn't fall apart as soon as we hit 1.5C. A lot of the more convincing arguments I…

What the fuck do you even mean with "nothing happens", when the climate has been changing noticeably for the past decade already?

I know right?

We’re seeing crop failure after crop failure. Whole ecosystems are collapsing. Tornados and floods are happening in places they had never happened in.

Europe and the US are going to be impacted way later than everyone else other than the immigration wave they’re going to have to deal with.

It’s a sick joke that the countries with the ability to do something about this are also going to be the last ones severely impacted.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#86

Post by SamReidHughes »

Rygian wrote: post #10
zpeti wrote: post #4

[flagged]

"Economic growth" is probably a bad indicator to follow. I would rather follow "number of excess death directly or indirectly linked to climate change." I don't know if that can be calculated somewhere.

> "number of excess death directly or indirectly linked to climate change."

That will be a negative number.

Because "climate change" i.e. global warming will see increased temperatures and increased crop yields.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#87

Post by jf22 »

prottog wrote: post #57
jf22 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is your point that sometimes people get predictions wrong?

Not the GP, but sure, if the people making those wrong predictions are advocating for policy changes that will impoverish so many people.

How accurate do people have to be in their predictions to advocate for policy change?

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#88

Post by aaomidi »

DiggyJohnson wrote: post #83
numbers_guy wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What the fuck do you even mean with "nothing happens", when the climate has been changing noticeably for the past decade already?

[flagged]

To be honest, majority of environmentalists don’t care to change our tone to make obvious concern trolls happy anymore.

Nothing has worked and your condescending tone doesn’t help with anything either.

Have you tried to reason with the average Q person? It’s not possible.

Enjoy being depressed: https://old.reddit.com/r/QAnonCasualties/hot

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#89

Post by tgv »

kypro wrote: post #59

Assume we hit 1.5C and "nothing happens" does this help the cause? While I'm very concerned about how unchecked climate change could impact future crop yields I also worry that having a hard line like this probably won't help convince anyone, and could counter intuitively act as a "I told you so" for climate denialists when the world doesn't fall apart as soon as we hit 1.5C. A lot of the more convincing arguments I…

> A lot of the more convincing arguments I hear from climate denialists (I hate that phase btw) is that past climate models have been highly inaccurate and many claims and concerns have in time been proven overstated.

That's such a trite reply. First, we can take it literal. Yes, models have been inaccurate, and this one will be too. The trend is unmistakably there, though. You can check the bloody weather outside to see for yourself. Do you want to bet your life that the estimate is too high this time?

Second, we can take it less literal. They simply mean they don't want to move. They don't take it seriously. They don't care. Nothing in the world short of an immediate disaster in their direct environment is going to change their "opinion". And even then some will claim it's a freak accident.

Don't take these arguments as if they have the same weight. Do you want to bet your life and the lives of the ones you and we love?

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#90

Post by [deleted] »

mikeholler wrote: post #36
wing-_-nuts wrote: post #6

It always makes me sad how scientists have to put on a brave face and try to tell us there's still time . Sadly, they know the most likely outcome puts us blowing past 3C by the end of the century, and 'carbon capture' isn't going to save us. If you guys are planning to see the natural world in retirement, don't wait. Better to see it as it is now than what it will become.

It's not a brave face. The science tells us that we're on a better and improving track. It's not without hope. A decade ago we thought we were on track for 6C by the end of the century. That said, it's still going to be worse than we all want it to be. Like many things, the truth lies in the middle and all we can do is push hard on the margins.

[deleted]
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