How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality • Hacker News Board

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#81

Post by joshspankit » Mon, Mar 13, 2023, 1:45 AM UTC

taeric wrote: post #78

joshspankit wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, yes it’s important to base science on reality. But also: if we take drastic action “wrongly” and the end result is a healthier plant? I’m good with that.

I mean, sorta? I mostly agree, but that is what I'm asking. I'm reminded of folks that were against LED lightbulbs because folks could just turn off their lights a few hours earlier. Not only would that have been a drastic change in behavior, it is comically incomparable in impact. To get the same impact, you would have to turn off your lights basically all day to get close to the same change. Such that sometimes we…

We’re on the same page with all your points. Agree agree agree.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#82

Post by 4dayworkweek4u » Mon, Mar 13, 2023, 10:24 AM UTC

inkblotuniverse wrote: post #75

lumb63 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ever since I saw a comment on HN about low information density on the internet, I haven’t been able to unsee it. They were commenting on a YouTube video that had an 8-second bit of content but was nearly 2 minutes long. But it’s so much worse than that. Recipes tell you how their great grandmother moved to the Americas and made the first apple pie ever. And then detail the entire history of apples and how to make the…

Check out based.cooking - just recipes, no fluff.

"It's bloat" ;)

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#83

Post by admax88qqq » Mon, Mar 13, 2023, 5:13 PM UTC

Dylan16807 wrote: post #71

admax88qqq wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Bill Gate's life really all about engaging in culture wars? I could see that argument moreso for Al Gore as he's a politician by trade but Gate's really? And even then, where do you personally draw the line between "engaging in culture wars" and "advocating for something you believe in"

I think they're talking about SV_BubbleTime.

Ah my b

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#84

Post by fwungy » Mon, Mar 13, 2023, 6:32 PM UTC

strgcmc wrote: post #43

fwungy wrote: post #35

How accurate are models of complex systems? Consider that if highly accurate models were really possible someone could make one that would accurately predict NFL game outcomes. When that happens we will know it because Sports Books would no longer take bets on NFL games. Sports Books profit because they get a slight statistical advantage which pays off due to bettor volume. So we know they can't make an accurately pr…

I'm sorry, but the sports betting analogy is hilariously wrongheaded. In order to set any prices at all, books have reasonably good models for the sports they offer, including NFL. But these models are not and do not need to be perfect, in order for a profitable business model to exist. There are in fact, plenty of "sharps" who can beat the books on certain sports or certain types of markets (e.g. maybe you can model…

The book just moves the line so they're covered in either direction.

The sharp works on inside knowledge, not advanced mathematic modeling. The sharp is someone with inside information, e.g. star player twisted his ankle recently and no one knows.

Bit if any moron could pull up a perfect model of the game outcome they'd all do it and the book would have no line to play. Books are happy to take action on anything where they have the advantage and are always wary of sharps ( won't take their money if known).

I really could have picked any prediction model though so we shouldn't get hung up on sports Books.

For example, why are banks still lending big money on expensive sea side property? Shouldn't their internal modeling be showing that these places will soon be flooded? Oceanside property should be a bargain right now. It isn't though, because the people on charge don't actually believe in the climate change models they push.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#85

Post by fwungy » Mon, Mar 13, 2023, 6:42 PM UTC

IngoBlechschmid wrote: post #67

fwungy wrote: post #35

How accurate are models of complex systems? Consider that if highly accurate models were really possible someone could make one that would accurately predict NFL game outcomes. When that happens we will know it because Sports Books would no longer take bets on NFL games. Sports Books profit because they get a slight statistical advantage which pays off due to bettor volume. So we know they can't make an accurately pr…

1. Climate is a long-term average. Long-time averages are much simpler to predict than individual outcomes. You cannot predict the result of a coin toss, but you can be reasonably confident that among 1000 tosses there will be between 400 and 600 occurrences of heads. 2. Scientists, especially young ones, have an incentive to challenge dominating scientific views because that is how you make yourself known in the sci…

We have millions of years of climate history of which only a tiny fraction has substantial data. The rest is theoretical data that can only be verified by a web of theoretical means.

Variance accumulates across models. The less actual data you have the wider the variance is on your estimators. When your data is mostly projected the confidence interval on your outcome makes it meaningless, e.g. average temperatures will change by plus or minus 20 degrees.