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I changed my mind about nuclear waste

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Re: I changed my mind about nuclear waste

#81

I'm all for fighting the good fight on this, but I'm also a realist: consumer sentiment isn't going to change much. People on the extremes will still fight to the nails on MSG, Flouride in water, GMO, etc. But the median person doesn't really care where their power comes from when they hit a switch so long as it's cheap. If we want any serious progress on Nuclear you need regulators with authority to ignore organized…

I don't know if I agree with the "organized civilian protestation" entirely. While NIMBY did play a role historically, this seems out-of-touch when I consider the mothballed & troubled builds which are currently in South Carolina.

I do believe regulators have their foot on the brakes, and there are some really telling stories from people in the actual industry. The level of paperwork and scrutiny are hard to fathom for people in other industries. But right now, in the US, that is more of a Federal political issue. The AP1000 lost crucial time due to added missile shield requirements. That doesn't scream local on-the-ground public resistance. You can pin some of this nearly directly to anti-nuclear views from (let's be honestly) Democratic senators (not from the south). Federal policy both encourages and discourages nuclear, but the domestic industry was too weak, and the regulatory policy took critical hits during a formative time.

I care very deeply about addressing carbon emissions. I want nuclear to work, but that's not an argumentative hill I should die on when solar has seen costs go bananas. Maybe another human generation will change things, but from lived experience, I would bet not.

As an engineer, I admit that either nuclear or solar COULD HAVE become the backbone of our energy system. But time is out for climate action. Solar is modular, proven, and roaring. Further deployment will create a new engineering problem of storage, but we don't have time to turn that into a delay tactic. There will be solutions to energy storage, just as there are solutions to nuclear waste. Neither are cheap, but either are a drop in the bucket compared to the climate damage we face.

Re: I changed my mind about nuclear waste

#82
post #16

I've been a bit of a nuclear nerd for a long time, and somehow the author still shares information that is new to me: I had no idea how quickly high-level waste dissipated, love the plots of the radioactive decay. > The decay of heat and radioactivity over time means that after only forty years, the radioactivity of used fuel has decreased to about one-thousandth of the level at the point when it was unloaded. Less t…

"About" and "less than" are lovely weasel words for the ideologically committed.

According to this graph, the truth is more like 1% after 100 years, 0.1% after 10,000 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spent_nuclear_fuel?useskin=vec...

Re: I changed my mind about nuclear waste

#83
There's a lot of misinformation about nuclear energy. I used to tell people that a quick way to get kicked out of the nuclear program in the U.S. Navy was to accidently forget to take off your thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD) before boarding an airplane. The Navy uses TLDs to track radiation exposure of sailors and has a strict program in place for managing it. Turns out, hopping on an airplane is the quickest way to exceed your annual exposure limit.

It helped people understand the safety protocols we have in place and that it's not this big scary thing waiting to give you cancer at any moment. Of course, it _is_ dangerous when handled incorrectly, but it's not the doomsday thing the media tends to make it.

Re: I changed my mind about nuclear waste

#84
post #16

I've been a bit of a nuclear nerd for a long time, and somehow the author still shares information that is new to me: I had no idea how quickly high-level waste dissipated, love the plots of the radioactive decay. > The decay of heat and radioactivity over time means that after only forty years, the radioactivity of used fuel has decreased to about one-thousandth of the level at the point when it was unloaded. Less t…

IMO that's quite misleading. It's true that the amount of radition will dramatically decline. But it does so unevenly, and certain isotopes last much much longer. That's not really a problem if the waste stays contained in one location, but if that waste somehow leaked into water sources or similar then it could have significant consequences. Even a very small amounts of these isotopes can be dangerous if inhaled or ingested.

Re: I changed my mind about nuclear waste

#85
post #46

I'm all for fighting the good fight on this, but I'm also a realist: consumer sentiment isn't going to change much. People on the extremes will still fight to the nails on MSG, Flouride in water, GMO, etc. But the median person doesn't really care where their power comes from when they hit a switch so long as it's cheap. If we want any serious progress on Nuclear you need regulators with authority to ignore organized…

Virtually no one who is critical of nuclear thinks that "it's scary" is the best, or even a good, reason for not having nuclear. But loads of analysis have been done on the financials of different energy generation methods and shows very clearly that, except for those contracted to build and maintain the thing, no one sees a real benefit. It simply doesn't pan out to plan and build new nuclear reactors today, conside…

The financials don't live in a vacuum though. Nuclear is only so expensive because there is a lack of supply chain on reactors and absurd regulations.

The average nuclear reactor is over 40 years old(!) and well past due for replacement. So the cost is skewed by unrealistic maintenance demand on reactors that are 3 generations old because we can't politically replace them with anything other than a Natural Gas plant.

Meanwhile, renewables enjoy fast-tracking and subsidies. But keep in mind renewables currently only benefit places that are either windy or sunny. There are going to be diminishing returns as they fill up our power diet. We are still going to need power supplies that can keep New York powered in the winter. Or power that can be turned on/off to meet seasonal demand. So unless we want to keep natural gas and coal plants around indefinitely, we are going to need some amount of nuclear power in the mix.

Re: I changed my mind about nuclear waste

#86
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it’s condescending to claim that environmentalists are guided mainly by emotions and people who share your view are guided by science. The problems surrounding nuclear waste is not as clear cut as the article suggests.

The condescension is deserved. The green movement has done more harm than help to clean energy by blocking nuclear power trying to push energy sources that were not economically viable. This was mainly due to emotional backlash against nuclear energy.

Condescension is never "deserved", you just decided to apply it.

Re: I changed my mind about nuclear waste

#87

The author, who gives every appearance of being funded by the industry, founded an activist group that claims: > Aim for 50% nuclear at least, as per the science. Which suggests a pretty cavalier attitude to "the science". edit: I take it back, she's in cahoots with Shellenberger and GWPF so it's the fossil fuel industry that she's supporting. I thought the timing was mysteriously exact for both her and Shellenberger…

> Extinction rebellion have a page on her (NSFW warning for some nudity in the banner image

Controversial opinion: by scaremongering about nuclear power—which the west could have started adopting in the 1970s like France did—the naked tree huggers did as much to set back climate change mitigation efforts as the oil lobby.

At least with the oil folks, they were pushing a status quo that was likely to stand until today anyway, because renewables have only become cost competitive relatively recently. Even without lobbying by the oil industry people had powerful incentives until now to stick with the technology that didn’t require them to put on a sweater or pay more for energy.

The anti-nuclear movement by contrast knee-capped the last best hope for climate change mitigation. A technology that could have been deployed—and catalyzed electrification and energy storage efforts—decades ago when we had more runway.

Re: I changed my mind about nuclear waste

#88
I grew up very anti-nuclear, but a lot of it was conflation of nuclear energy with nuclear weapons which, back in the 80s, felt like they could fall any moment.

But the technology has changed (though most reactors are not new), and more importantly, when compared with the effects of fossil fuels on climate, nuclear is by far the lesser evil. Sure, solar/wind/hydro renewables are important but they're not practical or feasible everywhere. I'm now pretty convinced nuclear needs to play an important part if we have any hope of significant emission reduction. So in that respect, as well meaning as the anti-nuclear green movement has been, they are wrong in opposing it today (in terms of power generation; nuclear weapons are an abomination).

Re: I changed my mind about nuclear waste

#89
post #11

I don’t think nuclear is evil, but Rosie’s look at the financials suggests there are better options: https://youtu.be/quI_8xYSWYE

Her analysis is fundamentally flawed. For a stable energy source, it cannot be solar alone or wind alone. Rather it needs to be solar plus battery and wind plus battery. Let's factor in the costs of producing maintaining and environmentally disposing of those batteries and let's see how the numbers shake out, ceteris paribus of course.

Or solar plus CAES. Or pumped hydro. Plus some loads can be shifted.

Re: I changed my mind about nuclear waste

#90
post #49

I like how he says there is no radiation leaking out of those dry casks. That sounds like obvious nonsense to me. There’s radiation, it’s just not significant. It’s like saying an x-ray has no radiation when you compare it to a CT scan.

I think you're technically correct, but there are a lot of other sources of radiation in our daily lives. I don't know how much radiation leaks out, but if it's similar to naturally occurring sources, I think it's fair to say there is no radiation leaking.
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