International Security and Estonia 2023 • Hacker News Board

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#81

Post by dmpk2k » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:23 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #74

dmpk2k wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty. Russia is hardly a paragon of honestly, but from the Russian perspective there are plenty of examples to draw from about Western leaders ignoring agreements. The first and most obvious is this: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017... Then comes the withdrawal from various nuclear treaties, the first being this: https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/12/13/u.s.-exit-from-anti... G…

> The first and most obvious is this... If Russia thinks a verbal assurance from the US SecState to a different country can bind NATO thirty years later as if it were a treaty, they're hopelessly naive. (They're not, of course. They know this is bullshit.)

It was many different leaders. I suggest you actually read the archive document(s). Yes, they're long.

Regardless of whether you think the Russians were hopelessly naive or full of shit, it is a promise broken. Remember, we're talking about negotiations, so their opinion matters too, regardless what you or I think about it.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#82

Post by Etheryte » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:24 PM UTC

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #26

engineer_22 wrote: post #4

For context, Estonia is a NATO member with significant Russian minority population

And a former USSR country (although not willingly), and it shares a border with Russia, and it's the most remote NATO country. That said, if Russia does try anything, that will escalate the conflict and get NATO involved directly.

While I understand your intent, I think the wording isn't necessarily the best. You wouldn't refer to France as "a former Nazi state (although not willingly)". Similar to how you would say that France was occupied by the Nazi Germany, Estonia was occupied by the USSR.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#83

Post by consumer451 » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:25 PM UTC

qaq wrote: post #80

I wonder why Russia gets a pass from the left and right on being pretty brutal colonial empire. Even in present day borders Russia is composed of literally hundreds of colonised nations that get exploited and brutalised for the benefit of Moscow.

> I wonder why Russia gets a pass from the left and right on being pretty brutal colonial empire.

Can you give some examples of what you are talking about here, and in what countries?

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#84

Post by coldtea » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:25 PM UTC

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #50

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And a former USSR country (although not willingly), and it shares a border with Russia, and it's the most remote NATO country. That said, if Russia does try anything, that will escalate the conflict and get NATO involved directly.

>a former USSR country (although not willingly) Was the process of a joining the the USSR ever a willingly thing a country could choose to do or not to do? AFAIK, the process was something more like Russian army invades your country and says "Congrats comrades, you are now liberated and part of the Soviet Union", rather than "Hey, would you like to have a democratic vote on joining our Soviet Union? No hard feelings…

>Was the process of a joining the the USSR ever a willingly thing a country could choose to do or not to do?

It was a process with people both greatly against it and enthustiastically for it in the local populations, does that count?

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#85

Post by dmpk2k » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:25 PM UTC

The_Colonel wrote: post #72

dmpk2k wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not wrong, because that is true too, but it is NATO that scares Russia. Given Russia's long history of bloody invasions, I don't think this is something Americans can at all relate to. The American Civil War is small potatoes compared to some of the things that Russians (and other continental countries) have been through. It makes for a very paranoid country.

> Given Russia's long history of bloody invasions, I don't think this is something Americans can at all relate to. This is something which most European countries can relate to, but they don't use it (anymore) to justify imperialism.

Of course not, because they are all American vassals. Being under the Pax Americana umbrella myself, I'm quite okay with that.

However, I hope you can understand why a major power like Russia might be suspicious.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#86

Post by another2another » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:26 PM UTC

tokai wrote: post #38

another2another wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, and that's why most of Putin's vitriol and propaganda is directed against NATO, because it's a real impediment to them taking it all back. It's also interesting to see how strongly the Baltic nations and Poland are pushing to support Ukraine, since they lived long enough under the Soviet heel and they definitely don't want to get back to that. I have no idea what's up with Hungary though.

>I have no idea what's up with Hungary though. The more autocratic a country is the more it is sympathetic to Russia. Autocrats like that autocrats can take what they want.

Good point, fortunately the US still has some strong and effectively functioning democratic institutions otherwise Putin's Trump card would still be paying dividends in the previously ongoing autocrat bromance.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#87

Post by gorbachev » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:26 PM UTC

yostrovs wrote: post #25

dmpk2k wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is the mistaken understanding that this is all just an artefact of Putin. It's not. Most of the Russian elite agree with this war, since they (collectively, including before Putin) have been warning that they will not allow Ukraine to join NATO since the 1990s. This is all well documented. All the bluster about "denazification and demilitarization" and helping the DNR/LPR aside, this war is entirely about NATO.…

The Russian public has proven that it can collectively switch to believing whatever needs to be believed in order to continue the war. NATO is simply an excuse to reintegrate Ukraine into the Russian empire that it was part of for very long. When Finland, also on the border with Russia, decided to join NATO, Putin said that there's no problem with that, that it was something for the Finns to decide. Fear of enemies c…

That was then. Russian leaders have recently been much more aggressive about their language towards Finland.

Both Sergey Lavror and Maria Zakharova, in particular, have changed their discourse to be quite a bit more hostile as time has gone by.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#88

Post by kozak » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:27 PM UTC

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #50

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And a former USSR country (although not willingly), and it shares a border with Russia, and it's the most remote NATO country. That said, if Russia does try anything, that will escalate the conflict and get NATO involved directly.

>a former USSR country (although not willingly) Was the process of a joining the the USSR ever a willingly thing a country could choose to do or not to do? AFAIK, the process was something more like Russian army invades your country and says "Congrats comrades, you are now liberated and part of the Soviet Union", rather than "Hey, would you like to have a democratic vote on joining our Soviet Union? No hard feelings…

It was the same in Ukraine as well (see Ukrainian-Soviet War of 1917–21), but there was more time to cover the traces and erase this from memory.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#89

Post by coldtea » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:27 PM UTC

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #78

enaaem wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interestingly, the USSR also held a referendum in the Baltics, but similar to Ukraine, it was after they invaded them and installed a puppet regime. The more you study history, the more you notice the same old tricks.

But was the referendum a fair and independent one, recognized and verified by the international community, or was it a sham referendum under threat of invasion, like the one in Austria for joining Nazi Germany, with a huge YES option in the middle, and a small NO option in the corner[1]? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_Austrian_Anschluss_refere...

>But was the referendum a fair and independent one, recognized and verified by the international community

The same "international community" lead by a number of imperialist and colonialist countries still at the time maintaining protectorates and colonies all around the world whose local populations fought with huge toil for their independece?

That would be like the pot recognizing and verifying the validity of the kettle's blackness...

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#90

Post by sushzbdbehsh » Wed, Feb 08, 2023, 1:28 PM UTC

qaq wrote: post #80

I wonder why Russia gets a pass from the left and right on being pretty brutal colonial empire. Even in present day borders Russia is composed of literally hundreds of colonised nations that get exploited and brutalised for the benefit of Moscow.

it's not colonial