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Netflix's New Chapter

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Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#81

Post by chongli »

no_wizard wrote: post #19
zamadatix wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I don't understand is how e.g. Disney+ is losing so much money. It's Disney's content, has an enormous userbase, and somehow is bleeding billions?

Marketing. I also suspect that alot of Disney's most core userbase don't make up enough volume to make this profitable. I consider myself an ardent Star Wars & Marvel fan and I just couldn't keep up anymore, so I axed Disney+. Netflix still drops enough documentaries that I keep it around.

Yeah I think there’s a big Marvel and Star Wars fatigue factor that isn’t talked about enough. Only the hardest of the hardcore fans can keep up with all that stuff. Regular people and casual fans pretty much only see the big blockbuster movies and maybe watch the Mandalorian to see what all the baby Yoda memes are all about.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#82

Post by scarface74 »

publicola1990 wrote: post #80
scarface74 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ARPU is a lot smaller and the article even calls out that different markers want local content meaning that content costs will also grow.

ARPU could be smaller but the user volumes would be much higher. In absolute terms it could be a significant portion of revenue. Netflix perhaps is not doing as well in these markets, presently. There are reports that Netflix is doing badly in India, for example, which is a massive potential market.

Revenue - yes

Profit - no

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#83

Post by mhzsh »

gumby wrote: post #18

I had never heard this part about Blockbuster: > Blockbuster ... started with Blockbuster Online, an entity that was completely separate from Blockbuster’s retail business for reasons of both technology and culture...a test version went live on July 15, 2004 — the same day as Netflix’s quarterly earnings call Blockbuster really snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. The corporate incentives had become completely b…

And at the beginning, they tried to partner with Enron to do it. For some reason that part didn't pan out...

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#84

Post by ensignavenger »

darth_avocado wrote: post #21
zamadatix wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I don't understand is how e.g. Disney+ is losing so much money. It's Disney's content, has an enormous userbase, and somehow is bleeding billions?

> It’s Disney’s content That is partly the problem. You spend hundreds of millions to make blockbuster movies and then release it on Disney+ in a few months for free (or sometimes directly). That costs money. Add to that over reliance on only Disney content creates two problems: 1. You can’t have enough new content every month, subscribers therefore don’t keep the subscription year round. 2. You have to pay money to…

Disney+ isn't free though...

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#85

Post by minhazm »

ghaff wrote: post #49
thiago_fm wrote: post #16

Something I don't understand is why Disney and others need to have their own streaming service. Why Netflix can't sit down with Disney and merge the two streaming services. Disney is amazing at making content, so is Netflix at the moment. They could take a look at the present, their market cap, debt and so on and structure a solution that would: 1. Make Netflix the best streaming service with the best content, also b…

That makes an assumption. - That Netflix has a infrastructure competitive advantage. That probably used to be true with microservices, chaos monkey, and all that. But while a big streaming platform isn't something a couple engineers throw together in a weekend, it's a pretty well understood problem. It's content that attracts subscribers. And that content doesn't really have economies of scale. Having twice as much g…

Netflix's infrastructure advantage was/is in Open Connect. They work with ISP's and ship servers that locally cache terabytes of content as close as possible to the customer to reduce bandwidth costs for themselves and ISP's. Nowadays with higher and cheaper bandwidth there are many CDN's that have similar arrangements with large and small ISP's that Netflix's advantage is not as significant anymore. But even today Netflix's streaming experience is noticeably superior, just not enough for it to be a selling point anymore.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#86

Post by vnchr »

thedrbrian wrote: post #74
tootie wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, D+ is churning out an enormous volume of what would be considered prestige content at other services. All the Star Wars and Marvel shows are star-studded and larded with top-tier visual effects. And some of them aren't really getting a lot of viewers from what the rumors say.

>All the Star Wars and Marvel shows are star-studded and larded with top-tier visual effects. I'm just going to throw this out there. What if these shows just aren't that good?

I’d say it’s a mixed track record, and that risk of disappointment is enough to deter customets from content they might actually like.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#87

Post by horsawlarway »

treis wrote: post #71
no_wizard wrote: post #7

I'm gonna attempt to break this down: - Netflix has 5-6 Billion USD free cash flow, and because they got what debt they do have under favorable terms, they are positioned to retain most of that free cash flow - Disney, Comcast (Peacock), CBS/Viacom and other media corporations are saddled with debt, and are all losing money on their own independent streaming businesses. Likely untenable in their shareholder model - T…

>- Netflix has 5-6 Billion USD free cash flow, and because they got what debt they do have under favorable terms, they are positioned to retain most of that free cash flow This is a bit off. They had 1.6 billion in FCF in 2022 & project 3 billion for 2023: https://s22.q4cdn.com/959853165/files/doc_financials/2022/q4... That said, to me Netflix feels like it is lagging. Not enough to really hurt subscriber numbers yet…

They lost me this year. I had been a subscriber for 12 years.

Between the ads and the complete inability to let a show run more than 2 seasons unless it's a global hit... I'm no longer interested.

I've had a kid - and my viewing habits have changed. I can't always watch a show right when it drops. The reality of my life is that I have other things going on, and I rarely have 10+ hours of uninterrupted time.

But now... by the point I have time to watch a show, more often than not Netflix has already announced its cancellation, and I have zero interest in a catalog of dead shows. None. Nadda.

My take is that Netflix is hot fucking garbage at determining the quality of their own shows, and that really - they don't have the creative side down at all. It's too much focus on the stats, and timelines that are too short.

Some of the most widely watched shows in history had fairly lackluster first seasons (see: Parks & Rec, The Office, Friends). Netflix is busy killing off everything that's not a sizzle in the pan. But those flare up and burn out. They need the slow burn shows that grow into their own - and they've ruthlessly slaughtered them all because the numbers aren't great at first.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#88

Post by warent »

ensignavenger wrote: post #84
darth_avocado wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s Disney’s content That is partly the problem. You spend hundreds of millions to make blockbuster movies and then release it on Disney+ in a few months for free (or sometimes directly). That costs money. Add to that over reliance on only Disney content creates two problems: 1. You can’t have enough new content every month, subscribers therefore don’t keep the subscription year round. 2. You have to pay money to…

Disney+ isn't free though...

I think the economics of it is basically like, Disney spends so much on creating content that Disney+ just doesn't bring in enough money to cover cost, because users get a subscription to binge / burn thru several things in a single month and then cancel their subscription.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#89

Post by throwaway894345 »

treis wrote: post #72
mardifoufs wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's why it's so surprising imo. Disney+ has a very wide and deep catalog of pre-existing IP, and I would have imagined that most subscribers care more about that than any future original production. So it's weird to see them invest so much in new content, more so than competitors that have a much weaker, smaller catalog. Especially when the content is made exclusively for Disney+. But I'm almost certainly complete…

Think it's a bit of a double edge sword. Disney+ is all Disney IP which is great for those that like it. But if you're not into Marvel or Star Wars or the kids catalogue there's not a lot there.

Yeah, this is my family. We don't have kids, but we probably wouldn't have D+ if it didn't come bundled with our Verizon bill. I don't know how everyone else is managing, but I'm suuuuuuuper burned out on superhero and star wars movies. It really feels like Disney in particular but Hollywood more generally need to branch out more and not rely so much on stamping out franchise films--they're good for an occasional flick, but there needs to be more substance on offer (if the market doesn't already agree with me on this, I suspect they will in time).

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#90

Post by jdorfman »

> Three months later Netflix cut prices and referred to Amazon’s assumed imminent entry to the space; Netflix’s stock slid again.

I never understood why Netflix would continue to become one of the largest AWS customers after Amazon entered the space. Will someone please enlighten me?

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