You Can Forget About Crypto Now • Hacker News Board

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#81

Post by scotty79 » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:28 PM UTC

It's really funny how much people read into FTX collapse. As if it was the Bitcoin itself.

While the first time I hear about the FTX is when it collapses. And the first time I'm hearing about this "future trillionaire" is when I'm reading this article.

Collapse of mtgox was a big thing. Turned out to be at most just a blip in history of bitcoin. Same with any subsequent exchanges collapses.

Next truly significant event in Bitcoin world will be nothing short of full collapse of tether.

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#82

Post by hericium » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:29 PM UTC

> But the problem is more fundamental than losing a bit of money. Crypto was built on the idea that you shouldn’t have to trust banks with your money, that people should be able to hold it themselves, hopefully somewhere a little more secure than a mattress.

Yes, and some of these tokens, like BTC, allow this since "crypto was built". You can clone and build https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin and set up your own wallet. Noone will touch coins in it if you're careful. They can lose their value but they will still be there.

If you trust someone else to hold your wallet, which is more or less a necessity when you trade/exchange your coins, that's whole other ball game. But having all your money in bunch of wallets kept by a single entity that is not you, is just plain stupidity.

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#83

Post by hocuspocus » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:29 PM UTC

thrwy_918 wrote: post #37

practice9 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell that to Argentinians, Venezuelans, Iranians where US dollar stablecoins are much more popular among general population. For different reasons: - easier & safer to store - much more stable than their countries own currency - not controlled by the regime And they will likely keep using it, despite major crypto exchanges crashing down, or despite the unclear dangers of USDT.

"stablecoins" are not decentralized. If you're going to trust a central issuing and custodial authority for a coin, do you even need crypto technology in the first place?

The stablecoin argument in failed states is always so funny... yes people in these countries want USD without the legal framework (of their own country and/or the US). It should be pretty clear to anyone that allowing a private and possibly criminal actor like Tether to fulfill this role isn't exactly viable in the long run. For starters when the US DoJ will finally get annoyed that USDT are used to evade international sanctions and launder billions of USD linked to large scale criminal networks, I believe a few people will learn about the ramification of the US extra-territorial jurisdiction. Good luck to your stash of USDT then.

Same with the "funding activists in repressive states" argument. Now you have a few centralized entities that can share data with the authorities. And they do, cf. Binance in Russia.

Ironically a CBDC from a powerful but non-cooperative state like China would probably be much safer for these people in Iran or Venezuela.

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#84

Post by otikik » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:29 PM UTC

squidbeak wrote: post #39

bluepizza wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just did. None of them ever heard of crypto. It might seem like crypto is all the rage online, but most people don't actually live in this bubble.

You managed to canvass Iranians, Venezuelans and Argentinians in 9 minutes flat?

Have you?

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#85

Post by bitlax » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:30 PM UTC

strong buy signal

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#86

Post by thr0wawayf00 » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:30 PM UTC

fullshark wrote: post #44

Some sort of regulation gets passed, institutional investors get interested (some already were: https://decrypt.co/114235/ontario-teachers-95m-ftx-pension-f... ) and the next time a crypto exchange like this goes bust they get bailed out due to financial contagion fears and crypto is totally legitimized with the downside risk publicized. That's the end goal of this and it doesn't seem far fetched to me. The great lib…

Maybe, but the regulation would inevitably come with changes that probably turn a lot of crypto folks away.

An FDIC-style framework, for example, would require exchanges to submit regular audits. The key difference between this and the proof-of-reserve stuff that Binance has been putting out is that a government auditor determines the outstanding risk of the reserves, not the entity themselves.

I'm a bit skeptical because crypto exchanges have largely been able to create these weird tokens that kind of act like corporate securities while not being actual corporate securities, and any regulatory intervention would put an end to that because that's where a ton of the risk was being laundered in the case of FTX.

Coinbase is probably the best example of an established exchange that's playing by the rules, but crypto enthusiasts hate it for that exact reason.

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#87

Post by FredPret » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:31 PM UTC

user3939382 wrote: post #64

I remember Warren Buffet explaining that his top two analysts that basically run BH struggle to beat the S&P 500. Then I read all these comments confidently predicting the movement one way or the other of this very volatile asset, whose behavior is inextricably related to the movement of the larger economy. I guess it’s a good thing to pretend you can predict since you have a 50% chance of being right.

One thing to note about Warren Buffett:

He has a massive pile of money.

That makes getting a great return hard - every investment opportunity has a saturation limit. You can invest a million dollars in a local McDonalds, but not a billion or a trillion. This makes finding a good job for every one of his many dollars impossible.

A theoretical super-investor who can buy the entire market will eventually get average returns, since they own everything.

Warren Buffett also said that if his pot was only a million dollars, he'd be able to generate 50% + annual returns by following his value investment strategy, for the inverse of the reasons outlined above.

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#88

Post by TheOtherHobbes » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:31 PM UTC

zimbatm wrote: post #45

albertopv wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where's the value in crypto? What's the purpose? Decentralisation? Democratisation? And then you have to use wallets, exchanges... There's literally no value in crypto currency, but trust. Like plain old money, which is highly regulated, so much more stability to use it in real economy. So why should I use crypto currencies? And which one, given that everyone can create their crypto currency?

Have you ever tried sending money abroad? With BTC/ETH/USDC it takes seconds. The whole process is entirely transparent. It doesn't get blocked if you reach some threshold. And the fees are smaller than with the traditional banking system. And unlike with banks, anybody is allowed to open a new wallet. You don't have to get approval, which is difficult if you live in the streets or in a 3rd-world country. I'm not end…

Do the fees include the loss of around two thirds of BTC's value over the last year?

Or the mysterious disappearance of literally billions from various exchanges?

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#89

Post by headsoup » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:32 PM UTC

scotty79 wrote: post #81

It's really funny how much people read into FTX collapse. As if it was the Bitcoin itself. While the first time I hear about the FTX is when it collapses. And the first time I'm hearing about this "future trillionaire" is when I'm reading this article. Collapse of mtgox was a big thing. Turned out to be at most just a blip in history of bitcoin. Same with any subsequent exchanges collapses. Next truly significant eve…

You should probably read up on FTX a bit and which pies it has its fingers in then.

Re: You Can Forget About Crypto Now

#90

Post by scotty79 » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 2:32 PM UTC

prepend wrote: post #61

squidbeak wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You managed to canvass Iranians, Venezuelans and Argentinians in 9 minutes flat?

It’s actually pretty easy if you’re in a cafe in Venezuela and do a quick sample of 20 random urban caracans to ask if anyone uses crypto. Obviously not a proper sample or authoritative, but pretty easy way to counter “these countries love crypto.”

> caracans

In Poland it's a mild slur meaning short man