Live data from Hacker News

Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

underorion.se

81–90 of 105 posts

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#81
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He asked to join NATO (as equals) and rather than leaping on the opportunity NATO told him to join the back of the queue. It is a little more nuanced than that [1]. "Join the back of the queue" is an uncharitable way to express "treated equally to all potential partner nations". There is no queue to apply to NATO other than logistical limitations. Putin sought deferential treatment to affirm Russia's greatness and…

>Join the back of the queue" is an uncharitable way to express "treated equally to all potential partner nations" Member nations in NATO are not equal. Never have been never will be. In not so many words, it meant that Russia would have to join the transnational gang as a foot soldier (Estonia) rather than a capo (UK) let alone a boss (US). Were peace with Russia a primary goal we would have started negotiations rath…

> Member nations in NATO are not equal. Never have been never will be.

Member nations are certainly not. Potential partner/member nations are equal with extremely rare realpolitik exceptions like Turkey.

> In not so many words, it meant that Russia would have to join the transnational gang as a foot soldier (Estonia) rather than a capo (UK) let alone a boss (US).

Explain a diplomatic sequence that sees Russia after the dissolution of the USSR immediately accede to the NATO informal equivalent of the UNSC. IMHO it was on Russia to counter-offer the NATO suspicion and initiate MOU working sessions to create a trust building framework to demonstrate good faith over an agreed upon period of years instead of demanding "capo" or "boss" status along with being read into the military secrets such status entails.

> There is similar German commentary on the character of minority groups in their country from 1939.

That's an unnecessarily inflammatory response. I get it, this is a heated topic, but I'm looking to shed light without heat here.

What else explains the predictive power of multiple former Warsaw Bloc nations' intelligence and diplomatic warnings to their Western counterparts, full decades before they happened, based upon not much beyond this national character defect assessment (at least with publicly-available information)? I can easily buy that such a defect assessment is wrong, but what other analyses were those agencies using? What explains the difference between the restructuring outcomes of Japan and that of the USSR? How much substance is there to Zeihan's thesis that if Russia does not secure various chokepoints in Eastern Europe it will be invaded in the 21st century and how does that square with its situation along the shared border with the PRC?

So many fertile topics to explore and I'm sure someone is hanging around here that can point us to the extant literature that attempts to probe these areas and more, without such heated, non-substantive contributions to the discussion. I will plainly state I know functionally nothing about what is going on in Russia-West relations other than what I see in the mainstream, and I invite anyone including you to contribute your knowledge to the discussion to learn.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh no, I got the point - the idea that groupthink leads to inefficient markets is not exactly new, so it is easy even for someone at my speed to grasp. (And to the author's credit, he avoids mentioning virtue signaling.) The problem is that the article does nothing except state that things feel homogeneous to author, with no demonstration of the opportunities presented. So, it's a restatement of a very common pose: I…

> So, it's a restatement of a very common pose: I see further than the masses. It's more of the many stages of grief of finance types. Like he just wants the bad times to end and for the good times to resume again. He wouldn't care if markets were irrational and inefficient but also making him money. People who chose to be defined by how much money they make, and nothing else, are in for a shit time right now. These…

> feeling schadenfreude or something

ffs, I can't imagine who would ever think that.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#83
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your reply removes all agency from individual countries who independently decided to join NATO. Reminds me of certain whataboutist, bothsidist discourse in circles outside YN too.

It's not one-sided, existing NATO members have to approve new membership. They could have said no.

The initiative lies squarely on the interested country. No other entity can decide to start that process. Whether NATO members take the interested country in or not is another matter. And it still has nothing to do with Russia itself. Let alone that its border with NATO countries hadn't changed in nearly two decades.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#84
post #79
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I did not mean that Saint Petersburg is bleak (quite the opposite). I meant that the further away you go from these big cities, the worse everything looks. I don't quite understand what you mean by superficial attempts. If their stats say that 10-20% do not have indoor plumbing then that what do you think they mean? ( https://web.archive.org/web/20210630123627/http://www.gks.ru... ) Russia is huge... if you go…

I just happened to watch this video from today https://youtu.be/dLCc60VDArM of a guy interviewing Russians in a village. Development of their village is not the topic but they are all carrying around or filling buckets of water or drunk, and no paved roads to be seen.

This looks familiar... I was born in the 80s in the Soviet Union. Don't remember much of the 80s, but I remember the 90s well. Going to a village or smaller town to visit friends/relatives looked exactly like that video. It was very simple: there were water wells, we would fetch some water for cooking/cleaning/taking a bath and then there were outhouses. The sewage in outhouses was never treated. You would just put some sawdust on it and that was it. I do not think much has changed. Russian urbanization is around 75%, some regions much less than that. So I still do not think that it was wrong for "labster" to state that 'many citizens of the “republics” have never seen indoor plumbing'.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#85
post #51
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you mind explaining more about what you mean regarding the recent Alaska election? The information I have found about it made it seem fairly reasonable and straightforward to me, but perhaps I am missing something.

Here's a decent commentary: https://www.reddit.com/r/EndFPTP/comments/x9oupk/2022_alaska... > Two popular suspicions are now confirmed. Nick Begich was the Condorcet winner. Sarah Palin was a spoiler candidate - her presence caused Mary Peltola to be elected, by prematurely eliminating Nick Begich. Here's another, that got down-voted to hell, because of the audience. https://www.reddit.com/r/ForwardPartyUSA/comments/…

Condorcet has arguably worse features:

1. Even harder to explain to the average voter than RCV

2. Greater likelihood of nobody winning / needing to conduct new election

I am of the belief that RCV is not great, but that it is significantly better than status quo... and it is possible.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#86
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is such an obscure reference out of all the examples reality has provided in the past few years. Why did you pick this one specifically

Because she got banned from Twitter and it makes Elon Musk look bad.

Those were separate incidents I don’t believe are connected

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#87
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your reply removes all agency from individual countries who independently decided to join NATO. Reminds me of certain whataboutist, bothsidist discourse in circles outside YN too.

It's not one-sided, existing NATO members have to approve new membership. They could have said no.

"Hello person that been abused by a bully, I'm going to ignore your pleas for help"

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#88
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because she got banned from Twitter and it makes Elon Musk look bad.

Those were separate incidents I don’t believe are connected

Ah I see... so you weren't really interested in why he picked this example.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#89
post #16

It never ceases to amaze me how experts at something can't resist trying to be experts at everything. His examples from political science are just so off, but I have to concentrate on his example of Mearsheimer. Far from being one step or two ahead of the crowd, Mearsheimer's problem has been that he's still standing back in the 1980s. His realpolitik approach was refreshing and appealing for the time whensomewhat ph…

In that vein, I see people on HN who could be considered experts at programming or other tech work try to be experts on everything else. It usually doesn't end well

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#90
post #66
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wasn't talking about Putin's choices, but rather about the choices of people that led to Putin gaining power. But also - Putin always fancied himself the restorer of imperial glory, so joining NATO was never seriously on the table without also asserting claim to all the "lost lands".

>Putin always fancied himself the restorer of imperial glory This is certainly how western media has tried to depict him. Our media is more a reflection of our own imperial neuroses than it is a window into his subconscious though. Occam's razor suggests that when he asked to join NATO it was because he wanted to be a member.

As it happens, I'm Russian, and at the time when all this was happening, I lived in Russia, so my perspective is very much not based on "how Western media tried to depict him".
Post reply on HN