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The Prospects for War with China

chrisblattman.com

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Re: The Prospects for War with China

#81

Post by stale2002 »

UltraViolence wrote: post #79
stale2002 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US invasions have nothing to do with the fact that China is publicly saying that they want to invade the independent country of Taiwan.

The U.S. doesn't even recognize Taiwan as an independent nation, so your remark is moot.

Its not moot, no. Because Taiwan has its own laws, taxes, border, and military, and this has been the case for 70 years.

It is already independent because of those facts, no matter what words are written on a piece of paper.

And, it is related, because china constantly makes threats to invade Taiwan.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#82

Post by stale2002 »

user_named wrote: post #77
stale2002 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you understand that Taiwan would love to do exactly that, but that China would take such a statement as a declaration of independence and would engage in military action? Taiwan literally wants to do exactly what you proposed. They want to renounce having anything to do with China.

ROC already claims that China belongs to them. Do you understand that?

You don't really understand, actually.

They do not want to take over china, and they do not claim that china belongs to them.

Instead, what is happening is that they are not clarifying this stance publicly, because if they clarify that they are not part of china, then china will threaten military action against them.

Taiwan is already independent, has no intention of unifying with china, and instead just has to play this game because china threatens them.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#83

Post by UltraViolence »

stale2002 wrote: post #81
UltraViolence wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. doesn't even recognize Taiwan as an independent nation, so your remark is moot.

Its not moot, no. Because Taiwan has its own laws, taxes, border, and military, and this has been the case for 70 years. It is already independent because of those facts, no matter what words are written on a piece of paper. And, it is related, because china constantly makes threats to invade Taiwan.

The U.S. betrayed Taiwan 50 years ago by accepting China's rule over Taiwan and ceasing to recognize it as an independent nation.

Threatening to try to dissuade the Chinese from invading is the only thing Biden can do. When Xi finally gives the "go" he'll make up some excuse not to intervene militarily. He'll slap sanctions on China, for sure , but those will merely be a pinprick.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#84

Post by stale2002 »

UltraViolence wrote: post #83
stale2002 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its not moot, no. Because Taiwan has its own laws, taxes, border, and military, and this has been the case for 70 years. It is already independent because of those facts, no matter what words are written on a piece of paper. And, it is related, because china constantly makes threats to invade Taiwan.

The U.S. betrayed Taiwan 50 years ago by accepting China's rule over Taiwan and ceasing to recognize it as an independent nation. Threatening to try to dissuade the Chinese from invading is the only thing Biden can do. When Xi finally gives the "go" he'll make up some excuse not to intervene militarily. He'll slap sanctions on China, for sure , but those will merely be a pinprick.

You are ignoring the point.

The original post you were replying to was attacking China for it's threats to invade, and was defending sanctions.

That point is valid.

So yes, sanctions against china are justified, which was the original context, and they are justified because of the points about China threatening to invade.

> is the only thing Biden can do

Actually, the US can continue what we have been doing for a while, which is continue to sell more and more weapons to Taiwan.

The more weapons we give to Taiwan, the more invaders will die in any invasion.

Maximizing their ability to increase invader death numbers, by continuing to do this, is also a good plan.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#85

Post by philliphaydon »

Apocryphon wrote: post #67
CogitoCogito wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we’re all clear that US policy does not consider Taiwan a part of China (i.e. the PRC), I don’t have more to add.

U.S. policy officially considers it as a part of China (i.e. the ROC). That is de facto not a viable reality for many decades now, but it is the de jure legal fiction. As such, your criticism of the GP is incorrect. Because they were correct in asserting "According to official US policy, which is the One China policy, Taiwan and mainland China are the same country", Washington just disagrees with Beijing which that s…

No. The US does NOT consider Taiwan part of China. The US acknowledges China's position that it believes Taiwan is part of China.

This is like saying "i accept that you think the sky is neon yellow".

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#86

Post by philliphaydon »

UltraViolence wrote: post #83
stale2002 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its not moot, no. Because Taiwan has its own laws, taxes, border, and military, and this has been the case for 70 years. It is already independent because of those facts, no matter what words are written on a piece of paper. And, it is related, because china constantly makes threats to invade Taiwan.

The U.S. betrayed Taiwan 50 years ago by accepting China's rule over Taiwan and ceasing to recognize it as an independent nation. Threatening to try to dissuade the Chinese from invading is the only thing Biden can do. When Xi finally gives the "go" he'll make up some excuse not to intervene militarily. He'll slap sanctions on China, for sure , but those will merely be a pinprick.

The US voted against replacing the ROC with PRC in the UN.

The position of the US has never changed. It has always maintained that any unification must be peaceful and that Taiwan cannot be forced. It gets to decide for itself.

Taiwan has changed in the last 100 years. Majority of the ROC is gone, those here now have no desire to be part of China, don't consider themselves as part of China or Chinese. They just want to continue to live their lives as they are now.

The US does not consider Taiwan as part of China. The One China Policy states that they acknowledge the position of China that Taiwan is part of it. The equiv of me saying to you "i accept that you think the sky looks like the inside of a watermelon".

All of this ignores that Mao and the CCP considered Taiwan an independent nation and nationality prior to Taiwan being handed to the ROC.

Re: The Prospects for War with China

#87

Post by bitxbitxbitcoin »

UltraViolence wrote: post #65
bitxbitxbitcoin wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please tell us what exactly you have seen that makes you come to the conclusion that “the Taiwanese” will not fight? Were you referring to the Taiwanese people? The Taiwanese army? The Taiwanese government? The specific person that said they would defend themself? Do you also feel that a nuclear war is inevitable between Russia and the US because of what is happening currently in the Ukraine? Whether the US joins the…

I've seen Taiwanese making petty preparations for an invasion, Taiwanese soldiers complaining about poor equipment, insufficient ammunition and poor leadership and Taiwanese citizens and politicians criticizing the U.S. instead of China. A nuclear war is not inevitable in Ukraine because the U.S. isn't a combatant. But I do believe this conflict could easily spiral out of control and lead to a nuclear confrontation b…

Def see where you are coming from but why wouldn’t it just be another proxy war ala currently in Ukraine or previously in Vietnam or Korea?
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