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Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

reuters.com

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Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#81

Post by regnull »

tokai wrote: post #17
jeltz wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But who is that? Ukraine should be fine with having Germany buy Russian gas since Germany keeps sending arms and push others to send arms. I don't see why the US would care either now that Germany is finally moving away from Russian gas. And Russia can just close the pipeline in a less destructive way.

It can be anyone. Could even be a private person. But yeah its definitely not Russia.

There is nothing ever “definitely” about Russia. It could be as simple as “look what we can do”.

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#82

Post by torginus »

Joeri wrote: post #25
IAmGraydon wrote: post #4

Who would benefit from this?

Gas prices were dropping, half what they were at the peak. Putin wants gas prices to remain high to punish the EU and increase his own revenues. Since this incident they’re climbing back up. There are other ways for russia to export the gas than nordstream 1. He may think he can force an opening of nordstream 2. Putin has made so many errors in judgment that no strategy is too insane to be considered reasonable in hi…

I'd imagine the Russian would have less permanent ways of restricting gas flow.

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#83

Post by fffobar »

oldgradstudent wrote: post #67
mberning wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alphabet agencies working overtime.

The real question is whether it's Cyrillic or Latin.

Imagine if it was arabic (to keep the LNG prices up, which everyone in Europe is now buying from the middle east like crazy). That would surely stir some things up.

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#84

Post by dividedbyzero »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #4

Who would benefit from this?

Everyone west of Russia and Belarus, including Germany, where political tension to open Nord Stream 2 has been rising, and that's without any psychological games Russia might have played with NS1 in the coming months. This is going to be a big help in keeping Germany politically stable.

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#85

Post by sprash »

wobbleblob wrote: post #54
IAmGraydon wrote: post #4

Who would benefit from this?

Isn't that obvious? It's to strengthen Germany's resolve. The temptation to surrender and get the gas turned back on is going to be enormous this coming winter. Germany and several other countries have made plans to shut down parts of heavy industry to save gas for heating. This is more than likely to put increasing pressure on governments to give in to Russia's demands. Now they can't, even if they want to, so that…

Indeed. It's most probably an inside job.

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#86

Post by ajsnigrutin »

tremon wrote: post #23
tokai wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have seen this line of thinking multiple places. It doesn't make any sense. Russia makes the energy crisis by turning off the gas. Destruction of the nordstream line only makes it impossible to start the gas exporting in case Russia want to sell it again and/or the sanctions are lifted. The obvious result of this is making sure that trade relationships with Russia can't go back to normal anytime soon.

Russia makes the energy crisis by turning off the gas Yes, but this way Putin can plausibly deny that it was a policy decision. Same with novichok poisonings: everyone knows Putin's pulling the strings, nobody can prove he did.

WHy would putin deny that? He said he'll do that more than once:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-blames-germany...

Putin wants the pipelines open, because europe knows that the minute they sit down and reach a deal with russia, the valves get open, europe gets the gas.

Now europe is fucked, and even if local people protest due to cold, sitting down with putin won't bring back enough gas, so there is less incentive to actually make a deal.

But I'm sure USA will profit by selling overpriced gas to europe.

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#87

Post by fffobar »

samuell wrote: post #46

Biden himself told they would do it, and "promised they have ways to do it" (from ca 1:20): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS4O8rGRLf8&t=82s

The Baltic Sea is very very shallow, with average depth of just 55 meters. It's not particularly difficult to do, sadly :(

"Fun" fact, mostly unrelated: the Baltic sea floor is full of unexploded munitions from WW2, and some (still?) contained chemical weapons.

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#88

Post by lordnacho »

988747 wrote: post #10
IAmGraydon wrote: post #4

Who would benefit from this?

Putin, because he gets an excuse to cut Germany off of Russian gas. It's game of chicken now: the West sends weapons to help Ukrainian army chase off all the Russian invaders, and Putin tries to make energy crisis in EU so severe that Europe is forced to negotiate with him, and accept Russian conquest of parts of the Ukraine. Whoever can stay on their course longer wins.

But if Germany decides it wants the gas and the pipeline is broken, how does that make sense? Also, the Russians can just turn it off if they want to pressure the Germans. They don't need an excuse, we know why they'd want to create such pressure. "We're shutting off the gas until you stop supporting our enemy" is perfectly understandable and legit.

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#90

Post by dividedbyzero »

jeltz wrote: post #13
tokai wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone that wants to keep Germany off Russian gas no matter the developments.

But who is that? Ukraine should be fine with having Germany buy Russian gas since Germany keeps sending arms and push others to send arms. I don't see why the US would care either now that Germany is finally moving away from Russian gas. And Russia can just close the pipeline in a less destructive way.

Wouldn't Russian gas come with conditions? Like to drastically reduce support for Ukraine? Given time and cold weather, that might not be such a hard sell to the German electorate.
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