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EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

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Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#81

Post by ThunderSizzle »

tapoxi wrote: post #66
RichardCNormos wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

I'm really not sure how my Volkswagen will not let me drive because of something I said on Twitter. Electric utilities are also regulated monopolies, they can't just cut my power without running afoul of a ton of laws. Even in such a ridiculous scenario, you can make your own electricity. You can't make your own gasoline.

I can get gas from multiple gas stations with cash without proving my identity.

I can't do that with electricity right now.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#82

Post by [deleted] »

sandworm101 wrote: post #55
oaththrowaway wrote: post #18

I love the idea of an EV, but I hate how unfriendly they are towards self-repair and I don't want my car connected to the internet. Also an EV has more battery capacity than my house so it'd be pretty hard to charge a car in the winter when I can barely keep my house batteries running my house.

I just completed a ~1600km drive back from visiting family. Half way through the outbound trip, in the middle of the mountains, I had to make a 300km detour due to a massive accident (two semi trucks head-on closed a mountain highway for more than a day). The detour was through a valley with no cellphone coverage for 150+km. At a rest stop I met a tesla driver in a panic. Without internet he was unable to figure out…

[deleted]

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#83

Post by darkteflon »

rootusrootus wrote: post #44
darkteflon wrote: post #29

I feel like predictions on EV adoption generally focus too much on practical benefits and cost improvements over time, but discount - or at least fail to mention - the potential impact of ICE products becoming very uncool, very quickly - at least in Western countries. Overnight, even. It’s not a big stretch to imagine that generations of younger people concerned about the climate might make product consumption choice…

Plausible, but I always come back to TCO. The real reason EVs are suddenly gaining traction is that prices for gasoline spiked and a lot of people are finally realizing that EVs typically cost much less to fuel. Think about how people suddenly start trading in pickups for compact cars when gas prices have spiked in the past -- and maybe that to save 25-50% on fuel cost. A bunch of people are realizing that going to E…

Yeah I think that’s a good explanation of what’s driving current demand, and I suspect that projections as to the future direction of those cost inputs is primarily what’s driving these (widely-publicised) predictive models.

But my point wasn’t that “people are buying EVs because they’re cool”, but rather: I bet current projections of future rates of EV adoption underweight the effect of ICE products becoming desperately uncool faster than most expect.

It’s just a hunch though.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#84

Post by sandworm101 »

ThunderSizzle wrote: post #76
sandworm101 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just completed a ~1600km drive back from visiting family. Half way through the outbound trip, in the middle of the mountains, I had to make a 300km detour due to a massive accident (two semi trucks head-on closed a mountain highway for more than a day). The detour was through a valley with no cellphone coverage for 150+km. At a rest stop I met a tesla driver in a panic. Without internet he was unable to figure out…

Your facts are inconvenient and will probably just be dismissed sadly. EVs need to win by being better without more risk, not by trying to ban people currently using ICEs.

More inconvenient facts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Fort_McMurray_wildfire

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E_OLgC4nV0

88,000 people in perhaps 50,000 vehicles all taking the ONE road out of town. Some kind companies setup fuel trucks by the roadside to top up tanks. Gas delivery can be scaled up and even made portable in an emergency. Had those 50,000 vehicles all been EVs, tens of thousands of people would have been stuck beside the road hoping the fire picked a different direction.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#85

Post by epistasis »

ThunderSizzle wrote: post #76
sandworm101 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just completed a ~1600km drive back from visiting family. Half way through the outbound trip, in the middle of the mountains, I had to make a 300km detour due to a massive accident (two semi trucks head-on closed a mountain highway for more than a day). The detour was through a valley with no cellphone coverage for 150+km. At a rest stop I met a tesla driver in a panic. Without internet he was unable to figure out…

Your facts are inconvenient and will probably just be dismissed sadly. EVs need to win by being better without more risk, not by trying to ban people currently using ICEs.

When gas cars were first around, people carried extra gas around with them. Eventually we built gas stations, but somehow cars still got a toehold even without those gas stations pre-existing.

There are very very very few places without electricity in the world.

Are there some places where emergency conditions make travel inconvenient or uncertain? Sure, but these rare situations are narrowing daily.

If that was the only Tesla you saw that day, there's a good reason for it. Fortunately those sorts of rare areas have nearly zero population, and account for nearly zero of the miles we need to switch from gas to EVs, so if they stay gasoline powered for a few more years, it's not a big obstacle to overcome.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#86

Post by epistasis »

sandworm101 wrote: post #84
ThunderSizzle wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your facts are inconvenient and will probably just be dismissed sadly. EVs need to win by being better without more risk, not by trying to ban people currently using ICEs.

More inconvenient facts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Fort_McMurray_wildfire https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E_OLgC4nV0 88,000 people in perhaps 50,000 vehicles all taking the ONE road out of town. Some kind companies setup fuel trucks by the roadside to top up tanks. Gas delivery can be scaled up and even made portable in an emergency. Had those 50,000 vehicles all been EVs, tens of thousands of people would…

It seems like cars are the problem here though?

If people want to live in remote areas and pollute a ton, that's just fine as long as they pay to clean up the mess they make for everyone else. Direct carbon capture from the air is about $500/ton right now, which is only about $5/gallon of gas.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#87

Post by sandworm101 »

epistasis wrote: post #85
ThunderSizzle wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your facts are inconvenient and will probably just be dismissed sadly. EVs need to win by being better without more risk, not by trying to ban people currently using ICEs.

When gas cars were first around, people carried extra gas around with them. Eventually we built gas stations, but somehow cars still got a toehold even without those gas stations pre-existing. There are very very very few places without electricity in the world. Are there some places where emergency conditions make travel inconvenient or uncertain? Sure, but these rare situations are narrowing daily. If that was the…

>> There are very very very few places without electricity in the world.

Today. Right now. This is happening. Not Africa or Antarctica. In Canada. In a national park during a busy long weekend.

https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/be-prepared-officials-warn-of-po...

" Should the situation worsen, Richard Ireland, Jasper's mayor, recommended residents and visitors to the park ensure their essential electric devices remain fully charged and that their vehicles have full tanks of gas — since gas stations rely on electricity.

"We are already prepared to move to generated power for our own critical infrastructure, but that does not power lights in a residential home or your fridge or anything else," Ireland said. "So be prepared.""

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#88

Post by elicash »

endisneigh wrote: post #74

I love EVs. That being said I wish someone would make an enclosed bicycle/motorcycle that costs less than $2000. Something like that which can go 30mph and had space for 2 days of groceries would be enough for me to eliminate my car all together. I'm cobbling something similar now with a Class 3 cargo ebike, but rain sucks =/ The idealist in me says that electric ebikes could eliminate most of Americas problems in on…

Thoughts on LSVs?

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#89

Post by peyton »

edaemon wrote: post #64
jnwatson wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had the misfortune of renting a Tesla right before a severe cold snap in Virginia. I was charging at 4 miles an hour at the public charging station. I’m not sure I would buy an EV in an area where it stays below freezing for weeks at a time.

Norway has the highest rate of EV adoption in the world. I live in Minnesota and none of my friends or neighbors have had problems with their EVs. Level 2 charging (i.e. 240V home charging) is not affected by cold temperatures unless it's well below freezing, like below 0 F.

Most Norwegian BEV owners also own an ICE for the winter. Adoption is high due to incentives.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#90

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

sandworm101 wrote: post #78
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also an EV has more battery capacity than my house so it'd be pretty hard to charge a car in the winter when I can barely keep my house batteries running my house. Not sure if you're just talking about something specific to your house, or making a broader point. Once EVs are widespread, they can add a huge amount of storage capacity to the grid. Not hard to imagine utility and government incentives that encourage c…

I'm not convinced. The "smart grid" has been discussed for over a decade. Would anyone here allow their Tesla to discharge when parked, allow it to feed power back into the grid? What if those extra charge/discharge cycles decreases the battery's life expectancy? The small bonus payments (pennies) just won't cut it imho. People will charge their cars and keep them charged.

> Would anyone here allow their Tesla to discharge when parked, allow it to feed power back into the grid?

I absolutely would, in fact it's a major reason I am not getting a Tesla and am instead opting for an EV that emphasizes its vehicle-to-home power capabilities (e.g. F150 Lightning and Lucid). I also know a ton of other Texans who feel the same way I do given our (deserved) lack of faith in our electric grid.

Also, saying it's "feeding power back to the grid", while technically accurate, isn't necessarily how I think this will be messaged. Instead, I think it will be messaged that, in times of high demand, your house alone will be powered by your car battery and taken "off grid".

Right now, some of the biggest issues with renewables is just timing during the day (e.g. late afternoon/early evening power needs peak right as the sun is setting). Telling people they'll get a substantially discounted rate if they allow their house to be "disconnected" from the grid for a few hours (because they have a car battery that can power their house) would be a big incentive to a lot of people.

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