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U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

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Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#81
post #59

Quoted post unavailable.

There are a gazillion independent groups looking at economic data. What makes you think the government is able to falsify these numbers more than usual? This is not Turkey, where they had to use all sorts of proxy measures to figure out the government was lying (and by how much).

The numbers are manipulated by adjustments like substitutions and hedonics.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#82
post #19

Good. Now we can look forward to interest rate cuts to deal with the recession...

I hope not, I'm tired of this bubbly fake economy of the past decade. Massive misallocation of capital into pointless unprofitable tech companies

Yes, I hate seeing my 401K grow too. Let's have a recession, it'll be fun!

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#84

Whats the goal? At what inflation rate will the Fed be happy with?

2%, but knowing this administration, it's quite likely that they just change the calculation to something that prints 2% regardless of what inflation is at the moment.

For example, based on the pre-1990s CPI calculation, inflation is currently at around 12%. No government's changes to the CPI calculation ever result in a larger inflation number, only lower!

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But my electricity price literally doubled. What supplier and location, out of curiosity?

Quoted post unavailable.

https://www.texaselectricityratings.com/resources/historical...

Says the guy who can’t spend 2 seconds searching.

Energy prices at least doubled in Texas. And was relatively stable 2016 through mid 2021

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#86

Good news I guess. But my electricity price literally doubled. My house insurance is up 30%. My gas bill is up by a lot. Have you seen the price of oreos? The $5 box at Taco Bell is my splurge and I'm trying to cut back on everything I can.

> My house insurance is up 30%

Everything seems to be going up, but interesting that you brought home insurance up? Any particular reason why you mention it?

I guess if house prices and building material and labor costs are increasing, it makes sense that insurance would too. (Although I'm sure if everything dropped, insurance would remain the same)

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#88

https://www.mass.gov/info-details/massachusetts-home-heating... Heating oil (diesel) is still 70% higher than last year. I'm about to delete the oil heat, so have been watching this.. I will certainly be annoyed if it crashes back to the $2s next week (right after the conversion..) https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3010ma3m.htm https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APUS11A72610 BTW, this site allows you to compare the d…

Heat pumps are 2 to 4 times more efficient, and if you are in MA you can get upto a $10,000 rebate and 0% loan when purchasing a heatpump. Why would you stick with oil heat? Even if it drops to $2 it will be much cheaper to have a heatpump.

In MA you are paying through the nose on labor to install though. That rebate evaporates pretty quickly, still a 5 figure job.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#89
post #6

Core inflation is +5.9% YoY (lower than expectations) I expect the Fed to declare "mission accomplished" via a 50 bps hike in September if the Aug CPI print is lower.

Directionality is the easy battle, actually getting to 2% is going to be more difficult. Powell said its important to hammer inflation before the psychological effect takes place and it becomes a spiral. I dont think they are going to let up as long as were above 4%.
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