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People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

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Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#81

Post by SyneRyder »

bitwize wrote: post #47

This is like a Sally-Ann problem for scientists. The Sally-Ann problem is used to test "theory of mind" in autists: the subject watches Sally place a ball in box A and leave the room. Ann enters the room and removes the ball, placing it in box B. Sally returns to the room, looking for her ball. Which box will she open first? Those supposedly without "theory of mind" will answer box B, because that's where the ball is…

Oh wow, they really were comparing Kit-Kat & Mars bars as an "economic-value-based food-choice task". If the scientists' criteria was economic, why were subjects asked "which of two food items they would prefer to eat at the end of the experiment"? And then they call this decision "Willingness To Pay", even though the subjects receive the chocolate for free.

Maybe we should just strip this back to actual facts. Scientists observed that subjects in a trial typically spent 250ms longer choosing between a free KitKat & Mars bar (that they may receive after the experiment), than they did on choosing between two groups of random dots on a screen.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#82

Post by cal85 »

julienb_sea wrote: post #14

The irrationality presumes: 1. That the decision-making activity itself is wasteful. 2. That the decision-making time would, if not consumed by decision making, be spent elsewhere in a more productive manner. These are hardly safe assumptions. The discussion itself can be enjoyable. The faster decision making can create less certainty in the decision and encourage regret, or create conflict with others. The time gain…

Yeah, weird not to see any mention of time pressure. If you’re sitting in some psychology student’s lab and you know you’ve already agreed to participate in their coursework experiment for the next hour, you might spend a few minutes carefully choosing between two very close options. If you’re in a real life situation where you are presented with two very close options, and you need to get home in time for dinner, you are more likely to just decide at random.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#83

Post by cal85 »

phendrenad2 wrote: post #43

Closely related to the "bikeshed" effect ( https://blog.codinghorror.com/procrastination-and-the-bikesh... ) a.k.a. Parkinson's Law of Triviality ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_triviality ). As others have said, this isn't really a paradox. But it's interesting if you continue testing it with more and more trivial decisions. I think you probably reach a pleateau at some point, and actually one the decision re…

Can you give me an example of something that is “really” a paradox?

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#84

Post by t9767656334 »

This paper by Leslie Lamport might be relevant: https://lamport.azurewebsites.net/pubs/buridan.pdf

Abstract: Buridan’s principle asserts that a discrete decision based upon input having a continuous range of values cannot be made within a bounded length of time. It appears to be a fundamental law of nature. Engineers aware of it can design devices so they have an infinitessimal probability of not making a decision quickly enough. Ignorance of the principle could have serious consequences

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#85

Post by wruza »

bitwize wrote: post #47

This is like a Sally-Ann problem for scientists. The Sally-Ann problem is used to test "theory of mind" in autists: the subject watches Sally place a ball in box A and leave the room. Ann enters the room and removes the ball, placing it in box B. Sally returns to the room, looking for her ball. Which box will she open first? Those supposedly without "theory of mind" will answer box B, because that's where the ball is…

I guess only an “autist” like me would miss name switch… and the fact that Sally-Ann is not the same person. >_<

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#86

Post by mongol »

someweirdperson wrote: post #77
bitwize wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Other elites use a trick I call Smurfette's closet: fill your closet with identical copies of a single outfit (much like Smurfette has a closet full of that one dress she wears). That way you won't be paralyzed by picking out what to wear. Barack Obama and Steve Jobs have done this.

I have 100 identical socks. Absolutely recommended, not just to avoid the need to choose.

Yes but imagine if they would be bad quality? Then you would have 100 bad quality socks, rather than an even distribution of quality. So some prepurchase trial would be neccessary for me.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#87

Post by mongol »

ericd wrote: post #21
TylerE wrote: post #12

My technique for simple close decisions is to pick an option at random - flip a coin, random.org, whatever, and then see what my gut reaction is. If I’m happy, decision made. But if there’s a pang of regret or whatever… that means you actually prefer the alternate so should do that. Admittedly I’m talking about stuff on the level of “What should I do for lunch” and not, say, career decisions

I dunno, it seems to work equally well for me for larger decisions.

It is usually the larger decisions that are so hard for me and where the coin flip trick is so useful. Lesser decisions do not cause lack of sleep or constant butterflies in my stomach.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#88

Post by mongol »

coding123 wrote: post #9

Amazon used to have something waaaay down on the product page called: "Most people buy this product after viewing this listing" They got rid of it, presumably because people started to only buy that item. But man it's hard to chose products now.

Yes, and shopping at Amazon became less worthwhile for it.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#89

Post by krisoft »

One of the mental tricks I do against this effect is that I think of the choice as a repeated one. For example if I’m buying ice-cream and I have to choose 1 flavour out of 5 approximately equal options it is too easy to think that I have to choose the “best” and “most optimal” one. But in reality this is not the one and only time I will eat ice-cream. I can just buy one out of the many desireable ones today, and buy a different one next time.

That way eventually I will eat all the favs, or I will learn some new information and realise that some are actually more or less desireable than I have thought.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#90

Post by wruza »

I don’t think I spend too much time on known similar items. But when it comes to choosing over 2-5 essentially equal android phones, vacuum cleaners, pc speakers, etc - I’m paralyzed by fear that marketing has me on its hook. A phone may be ridden with bs apps and crappy defaults. A vacuum cleaner may have a shitty brush lock. Speakers may have too much bass by default.

Just thinking about it raises my anxiety and sense of hopelessness.

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