Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 774 posts

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#81

Post by PartiallyTyped »

sremani wrote: post #61
PartiallyTyped wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With an engineer on the helm, rehiring big names in the field, opening more fabs, and having access to TSMC's newest node over AMD[1].. it seems unlikely. [1] https://www.extremetech.com/computing/334897-amd-might-have-...

Intel has to do next 4 years what it failed to do for the past 8 years and the complexity of execution in the space is getting harder and hander. Also, they are fighting on multiple fronts, upstarts in GPU, write-offs on AI hardware, Losing share of x86 with ARM et al. Losing share in x86 to AMD, having to rely on TSMC for advanced chips. Also, some bright spots where, they are opening up their foundries for design f…

With the rise of AI chip startups (Jim Keller has one) and a voracious demand for chips, perhaps their fabs may allow them to weather the storm.

If I were putting money anywhere, it'd be in ASML... but their shares are too expensive for my poor grad pockets.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#82

Post by PartiallyTyped »

epgui wrote: post #44
PartiallyTyped wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With an engineer on the helm, rehiring big names in the field, opening more fabs, and having access to TSMC's newest node over AMD[1].. it seems unlikely. [1] https://www.extremetech.com/computing/334897-amd-might-have-...

If you know something the market doesn't know, and you're confident that you're right, then put all your eggs in that basket: that's how one beats the market. (Don't follow this advice, I'm just a dude on the internet, this is not financial advice and my background is biochem + software, not finance)

I'd put my eggs in some Dutch company cough asml cough that has an enormous backlog and controls a segment of the manufacturing process ;).

But what do I know, I am just a grad student.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#83

Post by trompetenaccoun »

fidrelity wrote: post #15

Some of the strongest tech companies were built during a downturn (PayPal if I remember correctly). It's a great time to build, but probably not the best time for fundraising.

It's rather that founders with a proper vision build companies regardless of market swings. During a boom cycle there's abundant founding, even for trash projects. Markets aren't as efficient as many assume, especially not in the short term. Now we're at the end of a boom cycle and everything gets battered but that's just the valuation changing, nothing else. It's speculation. In the public eye quality projects will emerge again a couple of years down the line when they're starting to get really big and no one except those actually interested in the tech will have paid attention to how they were working hard the entire time.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#84

Post by cercatrova »

MAGZine wrote: post #16
avgDev wrote: post #2

I work for non-tech generating 100million+ in revenue. Cushy job, fully remote, good pay and full autonomy with flexible hours working as an IC. I recently talked to a startup, similar pay, culture would be a better fit since it was mostly techies and I'm a nerd by nature.....but things just got awkward as soon as I asked about their revenue....they were bleeding money and I was told they were being acquired by a big…

the fact that you stopped to ask those questions makes me think that you're at minimum, an above average developer. caring about the business and its fundamentals is important beyond just slinging code.

Interestingly, I've heard many instances where interviewees asked startups about their revenues and the startups just wouldn't tell them, saying that it's growing, or some other vague nonsense. Even in the case of inquiring about the amount of equity one gets, many startups would not tell them the actual percentage of the company they'd get, instead opting to tell them the number of shares, without actually telling them the total number of shares. Well, 1000 shares out of 10k is very different than 1000 out of 10MM.

This is a huge red flag in my eyes, of not being open enough to see the books. It signals that something is quite wrong at the company, and even if it weren't, that they are not truly honest with their employees.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#85

Post by bombcar »

bushbaba wrote: post #73
lumost wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

...or housing will drop as interest rates go up. And a non insignificant number of folks were over extended in leverage. I know too many folks who did 7/1 ARMs cash out refi to purchase another home in a 7/1 ARM loan, banking not on cashflow but appreciation. I know of folks who bought homes using margin loans in their stock portfolio. If housing stagnates, there will be margin calls, leading to supply shock, and pri…

Margin loans for house purchases isn't as insane as it might sound - assuming your financials are there. Margin interest is deductible against investment gains, house interest may not be for many earners.

But not refinancing afterwards into a low fixed rate may come back to bite them, and soon.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#86

Post by prepend »

avgDev wrote: post #2

I work for non-tech generating 100million+ in revenue. Cushy job, fully remote, good pay and full autonomy with flexible hours working as an IC. I recently talked to a startup, similar pay, culture would be a better fit since it was mostly techies and I'm a nerd by nature.....but things just got awkward as soon as I asked about their revenue....they were bleeding money and I was told they were being acquired by a big…

It’s funny as that was my experience interviewing with companies between 1998-2000. Just insane business models but brazen confidence in themselves.

I remember interviewing with a company in 2000 that had burned through like $40 in two years. This was New York and they hired IBM. I don’t remember their product but it was stupid. They had paid IBM to build their own custom app server for Java because their requirements were too specific for WebSphere that IBM made. They built their own internal Java app server from scratch.

So that was stupid.

Also the interview was on a Tuesday or something and they said that they were out of money on Friday but were confident they would get more money on Monday.

They wanted me to start immediately and when I turned them down because of the funding, they asked if I would start on Monday.

It was such a surreal experience that a whole organization could be so crazy.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#87

Post by epgui »

PartiallyTyped wrote: post #82
epgui wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you know something the market doesn't know, and you're confident that you're right, then put all your eggs in that basket: that's how one beats the market. (Don't follow this advice, I'm just a dude on the internet, this is not financial advice and my background is biochem + software, not finance)

I'd put my eggs in some Dutch company cough asml cough that has an enormous backlog and controls a segment of the manufacturing process ;). But what do I know, I am just a grad student.

Not a bad long-term bet IMO! I’m partial to both ASML and TSMC.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#88

Post by ilamont »

malwarebytess wrote: post #18

I'm expecting brutal, decimating, RIF across the industry at the end of Q2.

Yes. The causes are different but the effects will be similar.

Already open positions are being quietly withdrawn, people leaving are not backfilled, big projects are delayed or cancelled.

Then as customers start pulling back or failing themselves, layoffs begin. It's terrible for the people impacted and those left behind who are often called on to take up the slack.

My advice for anyone in the position of having to lay off staff: Be decent, help people move on, and do it early and do it all at once, not in uncertain "maybe things will turn around next quarter" waves which destroys trust.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#89

Post by ericmay »

megaman821 wrote: post #41
ericmay wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's some panic, yea, but the P/E doesn't tell the whole story. Take Facebook or maybe Google (just to pick on, others like Apple have their own headwinds to face) - how does advertising fair in a recession? Maybe the P/Es have retracted to look appealing, but here in about 2 years when ad revenue is down 30% those same P/Es look expensive. Personally I think if you are investing with a longer-term horizon…

What about a recession would cause FB or Google to leave the advertising business, and not have some the largest advertising revenue whenever the recession is over? It is more of a choice can your money be invested somewhere better in the short-term and then hop back on to FB and Google before they get too expensive. It is probably the same for all large tech companies. I don't see any titans falling in the next few…

> What about a recession would cause FB or Google to leave the advertising business, and not have some the largest advertising revenue whenever the recession is over?

I'm not suggesting they would leave the advertising business, I'm suggesting revenues could be lower as advertisers cut their spend, which would drop Google/FB revenue and make the current 12 PE more like a 25 during a recession. I guess, you can't just look at P/E ratios. They don't tell you too much.

> I don't see any titans falling in the next few years.

Well, they've fallen quite a bit since January. Haven't they?

I don't see anyone going bankrupt or anything, so if that's what you mean then yea sure I agree - hence I think they're attractive to buy now as well.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#90

Post by bombcar »

vkou wrote: post #78
lumost wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

It's not irresponsible to bid 20% over asking. Asking is deliberately underpriced, because it is excellent advertising in a hot RE market. It's irresponsible to bid 20% over what the house is worth (which has nothing to do with asking price), just because you got emotionally attached to the house, and started a bidding war with another person emotionally attached to the house.

Which is exactly what the "ask below" is trying to get you to do; you act differently (emotionally) in a bidding war than in a price negotiation.
Post reply on HN