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Shanghai video overwhelms Chinese censor, gets 400M views

austrianchina.substack.com

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Re: Shanghai video overwhelms Chinese censor, gets 400M views

#81
post #28

One thing that I observe about how China deals with COVID: leadership assumes that they have perfect control over perfect people. Therefore they try these type of solutions like complete lock-down of a city of 26m people. They assume that they are perfect as leaders, so planning is perfect and takes everything into consideration. They assume that people will execute their orders perfectly, even under extreme hardship…

> I am curious when China will adjust their model/plan for COVID to consider the vast amount of counter-evidence that is accumulating.

Probably it will take at least one year and a half - two years, at least that's how long it took the Western authorities to somehow change their discourse. Some people around the Western parts of the world still believe in mask mandates, to say nothing of the vaccine mandates if you want to visit their country (Greece, for example).

Thankfully all this China situation will have eased up the censorship reflex present in some Western media/social platforms, now it's again cool and super ok to complain about the lockdowns and to call them authoritarian because it's the evil Chinese that are implementing them. When us, the West, were doing them it was "for democracy" and for the greater good (for "the demos"). When the streets of NYC or London were empty because of lockdowns it was a civic thing, when the streets of Shanghai are empty (as The Economist was decrying in one of the its latest issues) is because the Chinese authorities want the worst for their people.

Re: Shanghai video overwhelms Chinese censor, gets 400M views

#82
post #28

One thing that I observe about how China deals with COVID: leadership assumes that they have perfect control over perfect people. Therefore they try these type of solutions like complete lock-down of a city of 26m people. They assume that they are perfect as leaders, so planning is perfect and takes everything into consideration. They assume that people will execute their orders perfectly, even under extreme hardship…

I think the opposite: that China is a powder keg ready to go off at any moment - and the leaders know it very well and are generally pretty afraid of things blowing up. There are a lot of protests in China we don't hear about. Something about Chinese (in China) ... leads me to think they go big on memes. They revolt unlike anything we know of. Do you remember the video form Feb 2020 in Wuhan? The madness, hospitals f…

Revolutions use angry young men as fuel. China's young men population is proportionally small. Further, due to the legacy of the four-grandparent-policy and Confucian respect-for-elders tradition, the young that exist have high family responsibilities. Perhaps there will be something new in China - something that comes from the same place as revolution but without the testosterone.

Re: Shanghai video overwhelms Chinese censor, gets 400M views

#83

One aspect of this that i'm hoping a more informed person can comment on: Are the news reports of anger by shanghai residents directed against the national or provincial(?) government? From what I previously read Shanghai was discussed as a factional stronghold not wholly subservient to the national government (to Xi). That being the case i've been curious if these draconian measures have been imposed from the nation…

I doubt deaths are very low. I have basically no network there but even I have heard of multiple deaths.

Re: Shanghai video overwhelms Chinese censor, gets 400M views

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Shanghai government was completed sidelined, and the health department top officials replaced by people brought in by Vice-Premier Sun Chunlan. She even attempted to replace Shanghai's health code management software with her own, but that attempt was just abandoned. This article tells the story: https://austrianchina.substack.com/p/when-the-commissar-came...

That's not really relevant to who takes the blame, is it?

The Shanghai government will take the blame as they failed to implement the lockdown early and hard policies the rest of China was following.

Re: Shanghai video overwhelms Chinese censor, gets 400M views

#86
post #28

One thing that I observe about how China deals with COVID: leadership assumes that they have perfect control over perfect people. Therefore they try these type of solutions like complete lock-down of a city of 26m people. They assume that they are perfect as leaders, so planning is perfect and takes everything into consideration. They assume that people will execute their orders perfectly, even under extreme hardship…

>One thing that I observe about how China deals with COVID: leadership assumes that they have perfect control over perfect people.

This is absolutely not unique to China. How many times have we heard "if only everyone did this or that, the measures would have worked!" coming from official authorities here in the west? I know it happened a lot where I live, and It honestly surprised me how almost every measure was based on that crappy assumption.

Re: Shanghai video overwhelms Chinese censor, gets 400M views

#87
post #2

What really grates at people’s nerves? Uncertainty. Not knowing when you will end up testing positive and be whisked off by one of the commissar’s white costumed goon squads in the middle of the night. If you don’t agree, that’s when they typically come, like the NKVD secret police back in the Soviet Union. And not knowing what will happen to your children, your elderly parents and your pets if / when that day comes.…

I don’t think it is ok to compare covid quarantines to concentration camps.

Re: Shanghai video overwhelms Chinese censor, gets 400M views

#88
post #28

One thing that I observe about how China deals with COVID: leadership assumes that they have perfect control over perfect people. Therefore they try these type of solutions like complete lock-down of a city of 26m people. They assume that they are perfect as leaders, so planning is perfect and takes everything into consideration. They assume that people will execute their orders perfectly, even under extreme hardship…

"For all its failures, democracy at least has taught us to incorporate the human imperfection into the process and the decisions." which is why all democracies defeated COVID with the three-week lockdown in which no one left home unless they had to and took proper precautions to ensure that they did not dare transmit any disease to anyone else No, I would say that modern democracies and enshrine human imperfections i…

At least in Europe we never had a lockdown comparable to the Shanghai lockdown. People always could go to get food, medicine and get to work. The highest level of lockdown was that in-door and outdoor meeting in private were restricted somewhat (in Germany you could only walk with a single person from another household but couldn't sit down on a park bench).

I think western democracies had a much more commensurate approach to Covid even though they failed in protecting the nursing home population.

Re: Shanghai video overwhelms Chinese censor, gets 400M views

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's largely translated from a Chinese social media post [1] that's been floating around without clear attribution. [1] https://twitter.com/syhily/status/1517868079648104449

Yes, this is the source.

I think it's better to treat that post as part of the protest (someone supporting the message of the video imagining how it spreads far and wide) than as a reliable source on things like traffic figures (which, realistically, even the authorities can't know because of all the different copies floating around).

Re: Shanghai video overwhelms Chinese censor, gets 400M views

#90
post #28

One thing that I observe about how China deals with COVID: leadership assumes that they have perfect control over perfect people. Therefore they try these type of solutions like complete lock-down of a city of 26m people. They assume that they are perfect as leaders, so planning is perfect and takes everything into consideration. They assume that people will execute their orders perfectly, even under extreme hardship…

At least the current evidences (excluding Shanghai) has shown that the virus can be contained. Yes, there are cases, but cities have managed to contain it and people are normally back to normal after two weeks semi-lockdown. Of course, with Shanghai keeps having new cases, things may change.

The government is pushing for old people to get vaccination. Old generation in China are not getting vaccinations because they worry it may have side effects. As far as I have heard, the government is pushing it by linking some money (old people get some government money for special occasions) with the vaccination.

Overall, the country will have to accept the fact that the virus will spread, especially if they want to open borders. The current strategy is to contain it as much as you can. Once it open up, it will have a peak similar to Hong Kong, maybe hundred of thousands of old people will die.

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