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Why I’m scared of the post-PC era.

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Re: Why I’m scared of the post-PC era.

#81

Post by chernevik »

joebadmo wrote: post #54
glhaynes wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody's gonna buy devices that let them create in those ways anymore? Surely there will be demand for things to be created in the forms that those devices aren't good at creating for.

You're right, that was probably too hyperbolic. But I think the author's point is that part of his penchant for making is due to exposure as a child. In a post-PC era, even if professionals still have PCs, many fewer people will than do today, because they won't need them. That means fewer people, fewer children will be exposed to them as the author was. I think it's a valid concern.

Today you can build a brand-spanking new computer for $800, less if you skip the fancy graphics card and speakers. http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/guides/2011/03/ars-system-gui...

There may be fewer of these sitting around living rooms. But a greater proportion will be available to dual-boot as Dad won't be so worried about losing his TurboTax data.

The devices supplementing or supplanting them will give kids access to the entire library of human writing prior to 1900, plus an extraordinary ability to review art and musical history. They'll be one copyright violation away from K&R. They will essentially be dropped into the Library of Congress, with the Louvre and the Hermitage bolted on at one annex. In the basement will be the nightclubs of Harlem and the salons of Vienna. This is before anyone uses these things for anything _new_. And these contraptions are somehow _limiting_?

Nor will they remain closed. Proprietary tablet systems will suffer the same relentless competition that has grown $600 of desktop from pipe-dream to humdrum commodity. People and companies will code these things precisely to match the capabilities, and revenues, now locked away.

I get the philosophic distaste for closed systems. But haven't the past ten years demonstrated that, in a free market, they can't stay closed? Or that the revenues available to proprietary innovators can motivate accelerations in innovation? Worries about "closed" were one thing in 1995 when people thought they were doomed to Windows. Maybe it's time to adjust the anxieties for what we've seen of the long-term competitiveness of "open".

Re: Why I’m scared of the post-PC era.

#82

Post by pyre »

dextorious wrote: post #79
freshhawk wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain how open vs closed systems relate to user interface or experience issues? Those are orthogonal to each other, Apple made two choices here, not one. I understand the reasons for the move towards closed systems. A combination of media provider demands, funding coming from advertising and user tracking and the standard walled garden land rush when a new market opens up. > This argument ... is tired ... p…

> Can you explain how open vs closed systems relate to user interface or experience issues? Those are orthogonal to each other You can have a better UI and experience in a closed system. Multiple reasons: 1) A closed system is more tightly controlled. The user cannot fuck every aspect of it, and so he wont. You cannot assume the average users knows what he is doing or what he is installing on his device. Historically…

  > This is why even stuff like Nigerian scams (something
  > anybody on HN would laugh off), are successful against
  > the general population
Nigerian scams are not a 'tech only' issue. Prior to email, these were sent through faxes or snail mail. The basic idea is that people can be stupid, especially when you put the possibility of a lot of money in front of them. This has nothing to do with a open vs. a closed system.

Re: Why I’m scared of the post-PC era.

#83

Post by InclinedPlane »

What the writer is trying to get at is the idea that people will just accept that computers work by magic. That's by far the dominant way most people view automobiles today, for example.

And while this is distressing in some ways, I don't see it as necessarily a show stopper. People who are curious will find a way to peak under the veneer of magic and fiddle with the internals. Maybe kids will tend not to learn programming via command line apps written in basic, Java, python, or C, but that won't stop them from learning Javascript. And it won't stop them from learning C eventually either.

Re: Why I’m scared of the post-PC era.

#85

Post by GHFigs »

vacri wrote: post #72
GHFigs wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That innovation has been driven by the masses being able to create things on their computers. Has it?

Where did everything that's on the internet exist before ~1995? How did you access it?

I don't understand what you're driving at.

Software represents only a fraction of "everything that's on the Internet", creators of software only a fraction of creators in general, and creators in general being only a fraction of "the masses".

Re: Why I’m scared of the post-PC era.

#86

Post by freshhawk »

dextorious wrote: post #79
freshhawk wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain how open vs closed systems relate to user interface or experience issues? Those are orthogonal to each other, Apple made two choices here, not one. I understand the reasons for the move towards closed systems. A combination of media provider demands, funding coming from advertising and user tracking and the standard walled garden land rush when a new market opens up. > This argument ... is tired ... p…

> Can you explain how open vs closed systems relate to user interface or experience issues? Those are orthogonal to each other You can have a better UI and experience in a closed system. Multiple reasons: 1) A closed system is more tightly controlled. The user cannot fuck every aspect of it, and so he wont. You cannot assume the average users knows what he is doing or what he is installing on his device. Historically…

You're conflating open vs closed, customizable vs non-customizable and (strangely) open source development.

open/closed and customizability are at least commonly related in practice so I can see the train of thought there. Mentioning design by committee is just weird though, it's only related in that Apple has famously not done this as well as been closed and non-customizable.

I can only assume that you own a car you have modified with aftermarket parts all to hell and "fuck[ed] every aspect of" because it was possible and really wish someone had made it tinker proof to save you from yourself. Otherwise you sound like some arrogant technically literate person who feels that he or she knows what less technically competent people should be allowed to do with their own possessions because it's for their own good.

Re: Why I’m scared of the post-PC era.

#87

Post by freshhawk »

neild wrote: post #61
joebadmo wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the author's point is that the post-PC era implies that the golden age you're describing is dying, replaced with a clean future, wherein people don't have computers with text editors and that can run interpreters and compilers etc. The children of the post-PC future will only have access to iPads. Or Kindle Fires, as pure a consumption device as I can imagine.

The children of the post-PC future will only have access to iPads. Or Kindle Fires, as pure a consumption device as I can imagine. Why would you think that would happen? And while I'm at it, why is "consumption device" an insult? Books are consumption devices. Nobody sneers at a child with a book.

Books are a horrible example of a consumption device, the printing press profoundly opened up the ability to write and distribute books and ideas.

Sure, the modern pace of life makes writing and printing a book seem difficult but at the time modern books were a fantastic democritization of the ability to produce literature and distribute ideas compared to the status quo of being illiterate and going to church to be read to by those with access to the books.

Re: Why I’m scared of the post-PC era.

#88

Post by Vivtek »

wanorris wrote: post #80
Vivtek wrote: post #12

Your iPad has a browser. That browser runs HTML5 and JavaScript. That's the quick way to get to something programmable. If you want to get down and dirty, drop thirty bucks on an Arduino. Personally, I think the post-PC era is going to be even more awesome.

Totally agree on the browser. But as an aside, can you program an Arduino if all you have is an iPad? Or would you have to go buy a general-purpose PC for somewhat more than $30?

I could program an Arduino with a pair of tweezers, son.

...

Seriously, I have no idea. I suppose Apple's too cool for USB ports, but maybe Wifi? That ups the cost of your Arduino setup, it's true, but still - there has to be something you can do to communicate between your iPad and your Arduino that doesn't involve a general-purpose machine in between.

Re: Why I’m scared of the post-PC era.

#89

Post by [deleted] »

vacri wrote: post #59
kristopolous wrote: post #53

In 1951 you could have whined, "With the rise of pro-grammable computers, the Engineer can simply turn his brain off and let the computer do all the work. The era of craftsmanship has come to a close. No, no need to think dear friend, we have ourselves a Computer. Aughh!" Then, in 1961 you could have sighed, "The knowledge of how to maintain a computer will be gone forever with this increase in reliability. How will…

And if you did, you'd be missing the point. The explosion of computing in the general public over the past 20 years has seen the explosion of innovation - "the internet", as an industry, is really only 15 years old. Not even that. And yet it's innovated and transformed forever our modern societies. That innovation has been driven by the masses being able to create things on their computers. Something that potentially…

[deleted]

Re: Why I’m scared of the post-PC era.

#90

Post by mcantelon »

ary wrote: post #43

In the presence of each and every person living in an industrialized society are multiple devices running embedded software that is difficult to modify. Those devices are programmed using more flexible systems which to this very second are programmable any way you like. Where is the outrage over the hacker unfriendliness of my refrigerator? The iPad, iPhone, Android, and comparable devices are a hybrid of PC-like and…

>A hacker's "freedom" to poke around in the system has been traded for the freedom of an average person to use the damn thing without worry.

The two are not mutually exclusive. Some Macs have been made in the past that were easy to open up, should you choose to. Others required special screwdrivers be used, removing choice. What is wrong with giving grown ups who have purchased hardware the ability to choose what to do with it? Support can simply be limited, for those who choose to customize, to system wipes.

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