Apparently they had some internal issue with orphaned records or something and deployed a code "fix" that ended up deleting legitimate records in a way that wasn't auditable from the customer side.
I think it took about 4-6 weeks of trying to escalate through support and account reps until we actually got an answer. It was also very surprising to see role associations just disappear without a trace (we associated Okta groups with AWS IAM roles in the Okta integration)