Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

metaculus.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 419 posts

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#81

Post by sorokod »

twblalock wrote: post #60
InTheArena wrote: post #36

Armies have momentum. Germany almost lost in 1941 when Barbarossa failed. Hitler managed to keep his armies from disintegrating, but it was a near thing. Japan's armies went far further then they had any right too in the same period, because of the perception of invincibility, higher morale, and everyone underestimating them for racial reasons. It's very clear that the Russians badly screwed up their logistics chain…

The Russian government knew there would be sanctions no matter what happened. They had already decided to accept those even in the event of victory. They aren't in a no-win scenario either. Kyiv cannot hold out forever. The Russians have an overwhelming numeric advantage and they can simply wait out the defenders, using that time to fix their supply lines. It's tempting to exaggerate a Russian setback into a total co…

I am not sure that Russia has a government in the commonly accepting sense of the concept.

As to simply waiting out, a clock may be ticking for Russians as well as for the Ukrainians. Probably not the same clock but still...

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#82

Post by otherme123 »

Chris2048 wrote: post #48
otherme123 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe Zelenskyy doesn't like thousand of Ukraines dying for some inflated ego, potentially millions. That solution, and specially if acompanied with guarantees of no further agressions if Ukraine doesn't enter NATO or EU, is a win for the country, and a pyrric victory for Putin: his credibility is gone forever, and all he got is a small piece of terrain. Enough to sell internally as a win, but hardly anywhere else.

> if accompanied with guarantees of no further aggressions Which Russia cannot provide since they already promised not to invade.

They can agree on a DMZ, like in Korea. Remember that Putin negated the invasion while amasing an army at the border. You can't invade if your troops cannot be piled up near the border.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#83

Post by Navarr »

imwillofficial wrote: post #71
bostonsre wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

Ghost of Kyiv hasn't been disproven yet; but there was a tiktok that circulated where the battle was "recreated" in a video game.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#84

Post by kinleyd »

k__ wrote: post #52
gremlinsinc wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Zelenskyy should take: No eu/Nato membership (face it, he's months or years from qualifying anyways), and he leaves Donbask, and Crimea (for now), but does NOT agree to disband any military, and is allowed to secure his own borders. In otherwords he can still ramp up, then the west simply continues squeezing Putin and Russia for a year, or 3... then he can either go take back Crimea/Donbask regions, or perhap…

I think, they should do the exact opposite. Join EU on a quick path and call Putin's nuclear bluff. I'm not happy about it and can't sleep right for days anymore, because I fear a nuclear escalation. But I don't want to live in a world where such a situation could happen again and again. There are many slavic countries this fascist hungers for.

Given what's already happened, and provided (I'm hoping) Ukraine continues to hold out as it has, both EU/NATO membership is looking very realistic and likely to occur in relatively quick order. I think settling for less would be illogical at this point.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#85

Post by munk-a »

imwillofficial wrote: post #71
bostonsre wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

I think there's a serious issue in America with 24 hr news networks that feel compelled to shovel every bit of information they think they've got directly onto air unvetted so, personally, my main news source is an hourly show that's been doing a quick twenty minute run-down of news from the last day - preferring to discuss older information that has been more thoroughly vetted.

I saw some memes about the Snake Island Soldiers but never heard serious reporting on their deaths - I only ever heard the location had been compromised. Maybe the issue isn't so much a propaganda mill forcing false facts but the news sources you're choosing to consume. Unless you have family/loved ones in Ukraine there is no reason to try and follow up-to-the minute news - watch the daily shows, read a newspaper or just be a bit more skeptical about what you're ingesting.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#86

Post by krastanov »

imwillofficial wrote: post #71
bostonsre wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

I think you are conflating media and social media. If any of these stories were picked by something like NYT, it would be "here are some examples of local stories going around to strengthen the morale", never as "truth". Actually, even reddit comments were generally "I know the Ghost is made up, it would be silly to believe it, but gosh, it is a good story".

Moreover, the radiation in Chernobil did rise (measurably, but trivially). That has nothing to do with the active nuclear plant where actual fights happened.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#87

Post by NicoJuicy »

imwillofficial wrote: post #71
bostonsre wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

Where did you see that?

I read some Reddit and even there they mentioned eg. The ghost of Kiev is probably fake.

Your other points are also ridiculous. No radiation was rising and there was huge protest against Russians to take the facility. There were definitely fires nearby.

Reports of the nuclear facility ( video + sound) are pretty clear about what happened.

They did mention it is very dangerous to attack a nuclear facility.

I think that's pretty logical....

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#88

Post by tada131 »

nugget wrote: post #76

My partners and I have a couple hundred employees in Dnipro, Ukraine. Most of the employees have relocated to Poland or western Ukraine, some are sheltering in place, some are fighting. We started to source supplies last week, especially for those who are sheltering in place or fighting. During discussions with various parties across the supply chain it became clear that an enormous effort was underway by hundreds/th…

What about food?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#89

Post by mdoms »

rdtwo wrote: post #11

Do people put money on this because 4:1 odds are pretty good. If definition of fall is a mission accomplished type photo op I’d take those odds. If it’s prolonged stable holding then I probably would not

Literally the second sentence of the article. Is it that hard to read before commenting on an article?

> This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv's raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#90

Post by tyrfing »

jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

There's really never been a scenario where Ukraine wins unconditionally. Russia has started backing off on their terms - it's not going well for them either. What makes a negotiated settlement very likely at this point is that Russia has started to make serious concessions and reduced their demands primarily to territorial claims.
Post reply on HN