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China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

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Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#81

Post by duxup »

bufferoverflow wrote: post #21

But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure. You can't win over people's minds by killing their loved ones, their neighboors. And you can't keep it under control if every citizen has a gun. You install a puppet government, they will be dead within a week. This is the only way to protect Taiwan. Give them guns and ammo. And teach them tha…

It has been a week. I'm not sure we can be assured small arms to locals will do much at all.

What has happened in Ukraine seems to be that Ukraine's military was more capable / motivated and Russia's military MUCH LESS capable / motivated than anyone expected.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#82

Post by dragonelite »

qqtt wrote: post #31
bufferoverflow wrote: post #21

But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure. You can't win over people's minds by killing their loved ones, their neighboors. And you can't keep it under control if every citizen has a gun. You install a puppet government, they will be dead within a week. This is the only way to protect Taiwan. Give them guns and ammo. And teach them tha…

> But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure. There are no simple conclusions about what is happening right now in Ukraine, and it is a fool's errand to declare any kind of conclusion 10 days into an invasion which already displaced millions of people and in which almost every major Ukrainian city is under siege teetering on the edge. R…

It's such a weird situation right now everybody went from virus and vaccine expert to geopolitical expert within 10 min.

It took the West like a year of sanctions and aerial bombardment, then 3 weeks of "Shock and awe" to take over an Arab nations. If there is one thing modern day arabs are known for is they cant do modern warfare.

Now take Ukraine its like 40% bigger than Iraq so i think its save to say it should take Russia like 5 weeks to beat the West without sanctions on Ukraine without months of Aerial bombardment. If at the end of this months no peace deal is agreed on between Russia and the Ukraine then it's should be seen as a hick up.

But it might also become a multi year invasion every thing is possible in war.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#83

Post by slim »

bufferoverflow wrote: post #21

But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure. You can't win over people's minds by killing their loved ones, their neighboors. And you can't keep it under control if every citizen has a gun. You install a puppet government, they will be dead within a week. This is the only way to protect Taiwan. Give them guns and ammo. And teach them tha…

This is naive. It's too easy to polarize any population during hard times. and now they are armed.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#84

Post by jacquesm »

ep103 wrote: post #75
jacquesm wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Based on what I've seen for the past two years, many people do not value freedom, even in the United States. I suspect this is a universal truth.

People value stability, wealth, quality and ease of life and peace. Freedom is the vehicle that maintains these things. But that, apparently, requires education to remember.

Yes, but apparently the price of that vehicle is preferably paid by others. And I believe that is not how it works.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#85

Post by ipaddr »

sremani wrote: post #33
manachar wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia didn't hide their military buildup, they just lied and gaslit the world via their various disinformation channels into believing that Putin would have to be insane to actually invade.

The most vociferous against Russia today are the ones that predicted Putin is not a gambler and would not attack. These are not Putin's puppets. These are the people considered well respected International relations people. To call everything and everyone Putin's propaganda and disinformation is simplistic. Hindsight is 2020, it always feels like we missed the obvious signs.

Being an willing or unwilling participate in propaganda makes you a tool regardless.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#86

Post by kerneloftruth »

credit_guy wrote: post #52

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punch…

   One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more.
How can you be so certain? This reminds me of people saying just 14 days ago "I don't think Putin is going to invade."

Taiwan is not Ukraine, indeed -- Taiwan would be easier to capture because it is an island. There aren't land borders across which supplies and weapons can be brought. They would have to come by ship or plane, which are easier to defeat. It would be easier, militarily, to take Taiwan. China certainly has the will, and it has learned that the worst it would face would be some sanctions.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#87

Post by FpUser »

jmull wrote: post #50
manachar wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia didn't hide their military buildup, they just lied and gaslit the world via their various disinformation channels into believing that Putin would have to be insane to actually invade.

Were there very many people who didn’t think Russia’s buildup was almost certainly a precursor to an invasion? I hadn’t heard of that before.

I originally thought that Putin was trolling Ukraine and West with this buildup for the sake of winning some concessions.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#88

Post by canadianfella »

dragonelite wrote: post #82
qqtt wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure. There are no simple conclusions about what is happening right now in Ukraine, and it is a fool's errand to declare any kind of conclusion 10 days into an invasion which already displaced millions of people and in which almost every major Ukrainian city is under siege teetering on the edge. R…

It's such a weird situation right now everybody went from virus and vaccine expert to geopolitical expert within 10 min. It took the West like a year of sanctions and aerial bombardment, then 3 weeks of "Shock and awe" to take over an Arab nations. If there is one thing modern day arabs are known for is they cant do modern warfare. Now take Ukraine its like 40% bigger than Iraq so i think its save to say it should ta…

No post body was provided.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#89

Post by ipnon »

credit_guy wrote: post #52

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punch…

MANPADS, ATGM, and drones like the Bayraktar have now been shown to be much more effective than the same cost investment into aircraft, tanks and artillery. In addition the united international condemnation and sanctions have been greater than I think everyone imagined. China may conclude that Russian strategic goals would have been better served by maintaining their credible threat of invasion rather than actually invading, and adjust their strategy accordingly. But Russia is not China ...

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#90

Post by coryrc »

stickfigure wrote: post #73
dixie_land wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It goes both ways. The current supply chain crisis already demonstrated how reliant EVERYONE is on Chinese manufacturing. No politician would dare to sanction China when it means immediate runaway inflation.

I'll keep posting this list every time this subject comes up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa... China is 15-25% of the trade for those countries, but the west-aligned countries represent 80% of China's trade. A coordinated trade war would be vastly more devastating for China than the rest of the world. I don't say this gleefully - I hope it never happens.

Every electronic thing made has parts from China. I can't build a car in Germany and export to America without having done trade with China first. Who cares if I could still get Irish butter if I can't get replacement parts for my MRI machine?
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