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Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

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Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#81

Post by tetsusaiga »

skylanh wrote: post #68
ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's how the Japanese do it. If you have noticed, they do a really good job of responding to disasters. In fact, one of the funniest aspects, is that the Yakuza (Japanese mobsters) often are the first ones on the scene, and seem to take pleasure at beating the government response. I suspect that part of the reason is that organized crime tends to have an incredibly robust infrastructure, hardened against unpredicta…

(Speaking totally out of turn and without any sort of knowledge of the situation) The rapid response of the Yakuza may simply be opportunistic and predatory. Food, clothes, shelter, help to save precious heirlooms, those are all inflexible needs. Borrowing on "social credit" on inflexible needs can be exploitatively steep later. In the Yakuza-as-"helpers" model, they're taking advantage of chaos and economics theorie…

My knowledge of the Yakuza is limited to a single ~1-hour interview with a former member...

But that said, hearing it from the source has made me inclined to believe the more charitable interpretation.

I found the interview for anyone who is especially interested:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVmt80EXNGI

Obviously this is not some sort of definitive source, but he goes into "What is the real Yakuza vs. that which we see in pop culture" very quickly, which is sort of the heart of this idea.

Note: The guys runs an anime channel, but it's a very serious interview all the same.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#82

Post by horsawlarway »

d23 wrote: post #56

> Putting somewhere around 30-40% of your emergency stash into the stock market may be a good call. > The fundamental rule is to not be greedy: within the scope of this guide, your goal should be to preserve capital, not to take wild risks. It's best to pick about 10-20 boring companies that seem to be valued fairly, that are free of crippling debt, and that have robust prospects for the coming years. > It is worth n…

I also disagree with his take here, but I think there is some merit to the advice of "understand what you've invested in".

It's fairly hard to personally evaluate companies in a fund - it is somewhat easier to evaluate a single company (or even 10 single companies).

If I assume he means "~40% of non-retirement emergency funds" I can let this skate by.

---

I also think there's some risk to index funds precisely because they appear like such low-risk investments. If the majority of investments are in index funds, I suspect there are systemic risks that we just don't understand very well yet, because the vehicle is so young. Whether that's low liquidity, poor capital allocation, fraud, etc - it's hard to say exactly what risks come with that market structure, since we have no real history to look at.

(side note - I'm about 80% invested in index funds... so certainly don't read this as me recommending against them)

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#83

Post by buginabag »

hef19898 wrote: post #78
notakio wrote: post #77

One aspect that the article does not cover enough is the importance of training. Whether that's medical training, self-defense training, survival training or general preparedness training, training is what makes gear/supplies useful. Far too many people will purchase x, y, and z in order to be "prepared", but if you can't properly apply that tourniquet you bought a dozen of, then it is useless, and so are you in the…

Why not training in stuff like gardening (the food stuff variety), repair, house building, emergency medical care? Even in pre-feudal societies there was only so much need for "warriors".

> Even in pre-feudal societies there was only so much need for "warriors".

No the user you've replied to, but it's not "either or" that you (might) imply. I would also like to emphasize, pre-Feudal society was as it was due to pre-Fedual technology. The AR-15 and Glock 19 aren't going to disappear with the COVID-23 epidemic or the nuclear flash.

One can learn basic marksmanship fairly well at a local shooting range, but something like Close-Quarters Battle or other necessary-but-uncommon (to civilians) training will require some amount of professional training. How effectively can you clear a room with a pistol or rifle (solo, partnered)? Are you aware of the effects of glass (home, auto) on a round?

Best not to learn these things the hard way.

Let us not forgot, in the original iteration of the American Republic, we (able-bodied men, at least) were all the militia. Even in this ideal "community sticks together" outcome in a SHTF world, you need to have some competencies in shooting.

To contrast, one can more casually learn primitive cooking or home gardening... at home. I, personally, practice martial arts... that's the gist of my daily fitness training.

Though I very much agree, the medical training is one you're going to want to go to a professional for and should not be forgotten amongst the High-Speed Low-Drag oper9r culture that co-travels in survivalist circles.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#84

Post by darkarmani »

ejb999 wrote: post #49
irrational wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What use is cash in the case of a true catastrophe? And I don’t see the benefit of having a gun with or without ammunition. I would never ever be willing to shoot another person (or even an animal), even to protect myself or mine. I’d rather we are raped, tortured, and killed than harm another person.

>>I’d rather we are raped, tortured, and killed than harm another person. What a truly bizarre statement, and I seriously doubt you mean it.

Did you notice the poster's name?

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#85

Post by prescriptivist »

For the most intense emergency situations: If you take up wilderness camping (hiking, floating, snow travel based) you accrue the kinds of equipment that can carry you through most realistic emergency situations. But, more importantly, you learn to use and maintain that gear to keep you hydrated, fed and warm. Beyond that it's a matter of knowing where to collect water and having or finding enough calories.

The skills and equipment acquired in this pursuit of fun is far more practical than watching youtube doomsday preppers tie 30 different knots for tarps or ordering a barrel of MREs.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#86

Post by exhilaration »

dTal wrote: post #27
Melio wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a Simpsons episode were they had a bunker but not for enough people. Flanders had not enough space and was left outside. Then everyine started to emerge from the bunker. People who think they want to survive an apocalypse so badly that they romantify a bunker live might not have thought through it deep enough. I want to be protected from a fallout so I can move out of my region after the fallout but that me…

The joke was that it was Flanders' bunker.

The scene: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LSIsy6YEXQ

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#87

Post by germinalphrase »

peckrob wrote: post #21

The thing is, you don't have to be a Doomsday Prepper to just be prepared. It's about mitigating the risk of the disasters you are likely to face in your locality. I lived through the 2011 Super Outbreak [0]. Following the tornadoes, we had no actual damage (and most places didn't, tornadoes are pretty localized disasters, even in big outbreaks), but we had no power for about eight days because the tornadoes tore up…

re: communications - in the events that cellphone and internet infrastructure fails, what are the viable alternatives? Are landlines intrinsically more robust (or they share the internet fiber)? Shortwave seems obvious, but there’s an obvious education/investment/network barrier (no one I would want to communicate with is a HAM).

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#88

Post by hef19898 »

buginabag wrote: post #83
hef19898 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not training in stuff like gardening (the food stuff variety), repair, house building, emergency medical care? Even in pre-feudal societies there was only so much need for "warriors".

> Even in pre-feudal societies there was only so much need for "warriors". No the user you've replied to, but it's not "either or" that you (might) imply. I would also like to emphasize, pre-Feudal society was as it was due to pre-Fedual technology. The AR-15 and Glock 19 aren't going to disappear with the COVID-23 epidemic or the nuclear flash. One can learn basic marksmanship fairly well at a local shooting range,…

This focus on combat for survival thing is so American. In Civil War combatants are quickly trained by warlords, and quite expendable. No amout of training will allow a single person to survive alone. In case of warfare, there are armies.

For all other circumstances, combat skills are negligable. Repair, food "gathering" and medical skills are so much more important. Followed by organising people and stuff.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#89

Post by stinkytaco »

hef19898 wrote: post #78
notakio wrote: post #77

One aspect that the article does not cover enough is the importance of training. Whether that's medical training, self-defense training, survival training or general preparedness training, training is what makes gear/supplies useful. Far too many people will purchase x, y, and z in order to be "prepared", but if you can't properly apply that tourniquet you bought a dozen of, then it is useless, and so are you in the…

Why not training in stuff like gardening (the food stuff variety), repair, house building, emergency medical care? Even in pre-feudal societies there was only so much need for "warriors".

I linked the Sarajevo Survival Guide in another thread (about refugees) today, but it's again relevant. One of the things it points out is that a "disaster" isn't always an all or nothing deal. In many likely scenarios (including the siege of Sarajevo), skills like carpentry, mechanics and ham radio operators were in high demand.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#90

Post by faeyanpiraat »

ghaff wrote: post #64
giantg2 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you keep the pipes running, they might not freeze. It's also usually not too difficult to drain the majority of the pipes depending on the plumbing design.

If you have forced hot water heating, it's more difficult.

Isn't there a way to have some antifreeze additives in pipes where a pipe freeze is actually a realistic scenario?
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