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A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

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Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#81

Post by Azsy »

baybal2 wrote: post #14
xenocratus wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm way too far away from power on anything like this so I might be terribly wrong, but I imagine that cutting off SWIFT might convince other countries doing bad things to consider adhering to Russia's system, if they see the West willing to cut them off as well. You then get fragmentation and SWIFT losing some of its "soft power".

Russia already uses multiple alternative settlement systems with China, Iran, and few other buddies like Norko, and Belarus. > You then get fragmentation and SWIFT losing some of its "soft power". This already lost any power it had in 2014, because the threat of disconnection was wasted. An honestly, EU lost its face now to talk "soft power." Every foreign head of state going to meet EU bureaucrats will now look at t…

I'm not satisfied at all with Europe response so far, but i might be missing something here.

> can I rely on these people who threw out every treaty for a want of sleeping without a blanket?

Why isn't the US sending troops? Because the risk of escalation and nukes are unacceptable. In case you forgot, Europe also has nuclear powers and the risk of escalation is higher if the EU as an organization openly acts on more then soft power.

And as far as i know, only the US and the UK are ignoring a treaty to offer security to Ukraine.

Again, I'm not satisfied with the response so far, but what exactly are you suggesting so that EU bureaucrats don't lose their credibility?

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#82

Post by kgeist »

rozab wrote: post #77
kgeist wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a VPS I bought at OVH to act as a VPN, does it mean I won't be able to access information freely on the Internet if SWIFT is cut (I use a Russian bank account)? Or maybe I can open a bank account in some neutral country?

Even mainstream VPNs like NordVPN will take privacycoins like Monero

NordVPN is blocked in Russia, as far as I know

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#83

Post by infamouscow »

sega_sai wrote: post #37

All these sanctions are a bit of the joke when you are dealing with an insane leader in a country without elections and sitting on top of a pile of reserves. And the west is not doing one thing that could actually actually make a difference -- cutting oil and gas export because the west thinks it'll be too expensive for the west. I feel these sanctions are still more of signalling, than actually doing something usefu…

The inescapable fact is Germany intentionally put themselves in a position to be more dependent on Russian oil/gas with their shutdown of nuclear power. The previous US president made a point about how Germany's decision contradicts the purpose of NATO.[1]

1: https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1496917092351692810

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#84

Post by optimalsolver »

How many people complaining about the weaksauce sanctions proposed against Russia would be prepared to deal with the effects of more stringent measures?

I'm thinking especially of people in Europe castigating politicians for not wanting to clamp down hard on the Russian energy sector. The way I see it, the europols are in a no-win situation. If they go easy on Russia and keep the gas and oil flowing, they look like weak and waffling appeasers, which yes, they are. If they cut off the Russian gas supply, will the people posting Ukrainian flags on Twitter remember or care about the noble root causes when faced with unprecedented energy prices?

I.e. the politicians know their people better than they know themselves, and they're well aware that showing support on social media is one thing, but being asked to make drastic sacrifices is quite another. These politicians will not survive if they do what their voters are clamoring for them to do.

Of course, they probably wouldn't be in this position if they hadn't taken energy strategy advice from Greta Thunberg, but that's neither here nor there.

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#85

Post by johannes1234321 »

pmontra wrote: post #45
can16358p wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They do have physical cash reserves in central banks.

Which could be revoked by printing new money with a new design and giving them only to the friendly parties in replacement of the old ones. It's routinely done (Euro is on its second design) and old banknotes and coins are no more valid after some years (the first series of Euros doesn't have an end of life yet.)

not only are first series euros still valid, but you can still exchange pre-Euro currencies for the original rate.

The purpose of the new series is just to keep up with counterfeit money, to include newer security measures.

But yes, countries in the world have revoked currencies from time to time.

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#86

Post by hurflmurfl »

krisoft wrote: post #76
hamilyon2 wrote: post #42

Russian citizens like me will be hit hardest, as usual. Large institutions and wealthy individuals will find another ways to transfer money. Costs of goods and services will rise.

> Russian citizens like me will be hit hardest, as usual. Not to sound disrespectful, but I think it's the Ukrainian citizens who perished or will perish who "will be hit hardest". I know you have no personal choice in the matter, but still important to keep in mind the ongoing suffering.

I believe the poster meant that normal people like him (and myself) will be hit the hardest [by the SWIFT cut-off (or other sanctions)] and the influential and wealthy will continue their act as they are prepared / wealthy enough to not care.

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#87

Post by astoor »

gruez wrote: post #9
jdrc wrote: post #5

bitcoin is going to be tricky. unless most miners are in russia they can be convinced to fork chains

1. Russia has been building up gold reserves, not crypo reserves 2. It's actually much harder than convincing 51% of miners that Russia is bad. You'll need to get them to agree on a list of addresses to freeze/sanction. Given that bitcoin addresses are pseudonymous, I'd imagine on agreeing on such a list would be politically impossible. Not to mention, how such action would affect trust in the network and the value o…

There's plenty of services which map Bitcoin addresses to real-world entities, e.g. Chainalysis Reactor, so coming up with a list of addresses to freeze/sanction would be the easy part.

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#88

Post by andrepd »

mohanmcgeek wrote: post #46
TekMol wrote: post #26

I often wonder how money is stored. It can't be just a number on a computer in a bank, right? Otherwise some Russian bank could just increase that number to whatever they like. And say "Look, we own 100 Trillion USD. Now let's go shopping.". So I guess USD needs to be recognized by the US somehow? Could the US simply "void" all USD that are owned by Russia?

> Russian bank could just increase that number to whatever they like. Money is an IOU from the bank. So that's what all banks do. But they'll need assets on the right side of their balance sheet.

> But they'll need assets on the right side of their balance sheet.

[citation needed]

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#89

Post by rozab »

sega_sai wrote: post #37

All these sanctions are a bit of the joke when you are dealing with an insane leader in a country without elections and sitting on top of a pile of reserves. And the west is not doing one thing that could actually actually make a difference -- cutting oil and gas export because the west thinks it'll be too expensive for the west. I feel these sanctions are still more of signalling, than actually doing something usefu…

The energy/heating situation in Europe is very tenuous. In the UK most everyone has gas central heating, and energy bills are skyrocketing. This is the most pressing domestic issue in the country right now, far above covid. Johnson is attempting to gain some popularity by putting on a tough face, but there is no chance he can survive if energy prices rise any further.

Here a staggering number of people die every winter due to not being able to afford heating[0] (something like 30-50k). I think it's not quite so bad in other EU countries but some (like Germany) are still extremely reliant on Russia for energy. Due to strategic shortsightedness, cutting off oil and gas exports is simply not an option.

[0]: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/27/dying-...

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#90

Post by snovv_crash »

mohanmcgeek wrote: post #46
TekMol wrote: post #26

I often wonder how money is stored. It can't be just a number on a computer in a bank, right? Otherwise some Russian bank could just increase that number to whatever they like. And say "Look, we own 100 Trillion USD. Now let's go shopping.". So I guess USD needs to be recognized by the US somehow? Could the US simply "void" all USD that are owned by Russia?

> Russian bank could just increase that number to whatever they like. Money is an IOU from the bank. So that's what all banks do. But they'll need assets on the right side of their balance sheet.

Bit what if they didn't, and just changed some numbers in their database?
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