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U.S. Inflation Accelerates to 40-Year High

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Re: U.S. Inflation Accelerates to 40-Year High

#81

Does anybody believe that the 7.5% figure is completely accurate and not fudged and massaged to give an answer that won't entirely spook the market? It feels like their strategy is to avoid making a choice and letting the bubble unwind as slowly as possible to avoid political fallout. Unfortunately, we learned as kids that ripping off a bandaid faster is usually best, so this might prolong pain for a while.

Keep in mind "7.5%" is the aggregate across the entire basket.

This isn't how individual people perceive inflation. What actually happens is that a few things make big jumps (10-15%) and the prices of other things don't increase as quickly.

Maybe not the nicest thing to say, but I'm hardly affected by inflation at all. The four biggest categories to experience inflation recently have been used cars, petroleum, rents, and food. As an urban-dwelling homeowner who doesn't drive much, doesn't rent, and isn't in the market for a car, the only real change has been food, and it's a small enough part of my goods basket that the extra $15-20/week at the grocery store barely registers.

The people really hurting today are the truck-driving renters sucking down 20+ gallons of gas/week driving long distances to their jobs. Those guys are feeling a lot of pain.

Re: U.S. Inflation Accelerates to 40-Year High

#82

Inflation is a good thing for people with a lot of debt but not a lot of money. Think of the millions of student debt borrowers. Even if student debt isn't cancelled, it may get effectively cancelled one way or another. Which just goes to show, if WSJ or Bloomberg say something is bad, it may not actually be bad for you. Let's just hope the pressure stays up so wages keep on increasing. EDIT: I'd like to add, wage gr…

Wealthy people have access to lower interest rates, poorer people have to pay a risk premium. The advantage to the wealthy is exacerbated the closer risk free interest rates go to zero. Lower interest rates is hugely advantageous to the wealthy.

Re: U.S. Inflation Accelerates to 40-Year High

#83

Inflation is a good thing for people with a lot of debt but not a lot of money. Think of the millions of student debt borrowers. Even if student debt isn't cancelled, it may get effectively cancelled one way or another. Which just goes to show, if WSJ or Bloomberg say something is bad, it may not actually be bad for you. Let's just hope the pressure stays up so wages keep on increasing. EDIT: I'd like to add, wage gr…

interest rates will just rise to cancel the debt canceling effect out.

ultimately it hurts those who don't have a cash buffer for weathering the lag between price increases and wage increases.

Re: U.S. Inflation Accelerates to 40-Year High

#84

We are in a tough spot. The Fed has held interest rates at 0 (negative, real terms) which makes all cash flows effectively infinite net present value. When rates are this low, small perturbations can be catastrophic for the NPV of, well, pretty much everything. I expect a lot of chaos with the economy whipping between inflation and deflation over the next few years as the Fed tries to ride the tiger. It's a good reas…

Volatility adds a real time value of money on top of nominal interest rates.

[deleted]

Re: U.S. Inflation Accelerates to 40-Year High

#85

We are in a tough spot. The Fed has held interest rates at 0 (negative, real terms) which makes all cash flows effectively infinite net present value. When rates are this low, small perturbations can be catastrophic for the NPV of, well, pretty much everything. I expect a lot of chaos with the economy whipping between inflation and deflation over the next few years as the Fed tries to ride the tiger. It's a good reas…

> a good reason to never let rates get this low in the first place My brother-in-law remarked that "the fed is overdue to raise rates". My reply: asset prices don't matter to ordinary people. You already know this, but the Fed's mandate is "price stability and full employment". Full employment is going great -- the job market is tight, low-end labor is seeing lots of wage growth, everyone who wants a job is getting o…

> My reply: asset prices don't matter to ordinary people.

They do. A large percentage of the population has 401Ks, and many public sector pension plans have equity components. Housing prices are also assets, and inflation in that sector has priced out many people from affording homes, despite low financing costs.

> Full employment is going great -- the job market is tight

We are nowhere close to full employment. We're 3M jobs lower than pre-COVID in the U.S [1], and according to Keynesians, Monetarists, Monetary Keynesians, or whatever hybrid form of wishy washy economics that has used the Phillips curve as policy guidance, this inflation should not happen.

> In the larger sense, the fed's hands are tied, unless their legal mandate is amended to include "not creating asset bubbles"

The Fed's "dual mandate" presumes that (based upon the Phillips curve) there is a sweet spot between full employment and inflation. The correlation is entirely, completely broken [2].

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS [2] https://www.nber.org/digest/sep19/phillips-curve-still-usefu...

Re: U.S. Inflation Accelerates to 40-Year High

#86
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sucks for people like me with no debts though.

I was thinking about buying a truck recently and I got this bit of advice: "a loan is a hedge against inflation". More specifically, a fixed interest rate loan is a hedge against inflation. You are borrowing at an initial dollar value of A (in terms of inflation), and servicing your debt at a fixed rate, for a fixed time. During that time the value of the dollar decreases, and you now have a value of This presumes th…

I think that's bad advise, or at least incomplete, if the money that was going to buy a car is just sitting in a savings account you're guaranteed to be poorer since inflation will still hit your savings account plus you are paying interest on the loan.

Re: U.S. Inflation Accelerates to 40-Year High

#87
post #30

Inflation is a good thing for people with a lot of debt but not a lot of money. Think of the millions of student debt borrowers. Even if student debt isn't cancelled, it may get effectively cancelled one way or another. Which just goes to show, if WSJ or Bloomberg say something is bad, it may not actually be bad for you. Let's just hope the pressure stays up so wages keep on increasing. EDIT: I'd like to add, wage gr…

Believe it or not, but wealthy people have more debt relative to income than the poor. For instance, I have a mortgage that is several multiples above my annual income. Most other wealthy people also have debt because it makes sense due to low rates and good credit. The poor often have a tough time getting credit. If you're not making a lot of money it's tough to get debt at multiples of your annual income. That's wh…

Income is increasing faster than inflation, so it is helping poor people more than it hurts and easing their debts.

Also, I am not considering upper middle class wealthy. Wealthy is upper 1% who control most of our wealth.

Re: U.S. Inflation Accelerates to 40-Year High

#88

We are in a tough spot. The Fed has held interest rates at 0 (negative, real terms) which makes all cash flows effectively infinite net present value. When rates are this low, small perturbations can be catastrophic for the NPV of, well, pretty much everything. I expect a lot of chaos with the economy whipping between inflation and deflation over the next few years as the Fed tries to ride the tiger. It's a good reas…

> a good reason to never let rates get this low in the first place My brother-in-law remarked that "the fed is overdue to raise rates". My reply: asset prices don't matter to ordinary people. You already know this, but the Fed's mandate is "price stability and full employment". Full employment is going great -- the job market is tight, low-end labor is seeing lots of wage growth, everyone who wants a job is getting o…

Rents are 18-21% higher now as leases expire.

It's massive, some people more than $100 per month increase.

The waves of homelessness and people living out of their cars starts in a few months.

https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/metro-rent-changes-18...

Re: U.S. Inflation Accelerates to 40-Year High

#89

And probably soon to 90y high. Most workers getting a significant bump to keep them at work, worldwide logistical mess, one must be naive to think these and everything else won't have further repercutions.

To a 90 year high? I guess you weren't around for the late 1970s. We're a long way from there still.

Re: U.S. Inflation Accelerates to 40-Year High

#90
I would think that the impact of rising prices would be reflected in reduced profits but it seems like most of the major companies are reporting rather large profits.

Could it be some of the inflation is simply companies taking advantage to raise prices not because they need to but simply because they can?

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