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Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

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Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So convert the USDC to dollars and withdraw the dollars. Done.

Like I said, USDC is not dollars. If you're betting on Tether collapsing you sure as hell aren't going to take payment on that bet in USDC.

They're different organizations, few people seriously think that USDC is going to 0.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's trivially easy for anyone to short tether, simply take out a DeFi loan of tether backed by any other crypto collateral (including e.g. USDC so you don't have liquidation risk). It will just cost you a few % APR to keep the position open

Nope, occasionally exchanges will manipulate the price up to liquidate shorts - for instance the highest recorded trade price of USDT was about $1000 and dexes leave you at risk of flashbots and smart contract bugs.

I've held a short position on USDT through AAVE for a couple months now. USDT would have to go to ~2 to liquidate me.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#83

I find it ironic that people seem intent on holding Tether to a much higher standard than banks. I know there are certain legal guarantees applied to banks along with regulations, but all evidence points to Tether being in a much safer position than banks with their tiny fractional reserves. People are dissatisfied with anything less than fully-backed when it comes to 'crypto'.

> to a much higher standard than banks

I strongly suggest you look into the sort of compliance banks have to do.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's trivially easy for anyone to short tether, simply take out a DeFi loan of tether backed by any other crypto collateral (including e.g. USDC so you don't have liquidation risk). It will just cost you a few % APR to keep the position open

Nope, occasionally exchanges will manipulate the price up to liquidate shorts - for instance the highest recorded trade price of USDT was about $1000 and dexes leave you at risk of flashbots and smart contract bugs.

DeFi exchanges operate algorithmically with published smartcontracts, so they can't be deliberately manipulated like that[1] -- can you link the example of the DeFi where USDT traded at $1000?

Or were you just equivocating between DeFi and centralized exchanges in response to a comment that specifically suggested DeFi?

[1] Which is not to say they can't be manipulated at all, but you'd have to go after the entire market or exploit some existing bug; it's different from the ones where centralized exchanges pull arbitrary shenanigans on their own platforms.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#85

I don't understand how Tether has survived this long. Bitfinex and Tether sure look transparently like a fraud, all the way back to the "no really we have $1 in the bank for every Tether but you can't audit us" days. And yet it continues to occupy its role as the underpinning of most cryptocurrency markets. Why hasn't it blown up yet? My best guess is that it's useful to everyone taking in money from new retail inves…

It's trivially easy for anyone to short tether, simply take out a DeFi loan of tether backed by any other crypto collateral (including e.g. USDC so you don't have liquidation risk). It will just cost you a few % APR to keep the position open

Absolutely do not do this. Do not bet against the house inside casino walls.

If you have enough capital to weather potential dislocations, the only real way to play this is to be long off shore (perps, probably) and short CME. This position is long BTC/USDT vs short BTC/USD, the net of which is short USDT/USD. The reason for doing it this way is if it doesn’t play out, or goes to 100k first, you’re just wearing a bit of spread and funding risk, but let’s call it delta neutral. OTOH, if Tether nukes, crypto will explode in Tether terms (since it’s worthless) and implode in USD terms. Now, you won’t actually get paid on your offshore long because the house is bust, so you’ll have a paper cut there (keep as little margin as possible). But your CME short will pay you nice, hard, centrally cleared greenbacks.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So convert the USDC to dollars and withdraw the dollars. Done.

Like I said, USDC is not dollars. If you're betting on Tether collapsing you sure as hell aren't going to take payment on that bet in USDC.

USDC is backed by Coinbase (USDC are issued by Centre, a joint venture of Coinbase and Circle if I'm not mistaken). And Coinbase is an HN unicorn.

Everybody at Coinbase is known, it's operated from the US.

Coinbase ain't anywhere, not even remotely, like tether/bitfinex. There totally exists a world in which USDT goes to 0 while USDC is still worth 1 USD.

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like I said, USDC is not dollars. If you're betting on Tether collapsing you sure as hell aren't going to take payment on that bet in USDC.

USDC is backed by Coinbase (USDC are issued by Centre, a joint venture of Coinbase and Circle if I'm not mistaken). And Coinbase is an HN unicorn. Everybody at Coinbase is known, it's operated from the US. Coinbase ain't anywhere, not even remotely, like tether/bitfinex. There totally exists a world in which USDT goes to 0 while USDC is still worth 1 USD.

So your logic is that big, known entities can’t go bankrupt or be scams?

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like I said, USDC is not dollars. If you're betting on Tether collapsing you sure as hell aren't going to take payment on that bet in USDC.

USDC is backed by Coinbase (USDC are issued by Centre, a joint venture of Coinbase and Circle if I'm not mistaken). And Coinbase is an HN unicorn. Everybody at Coinbase is known, it's operated from the US. Coinbase ain't anywhere, not even remotely, like tether/bitfinex. There totally exists a world in which USDT goes to 0 while USDC is still worth 1 USD.

It's like you never heard of the 2008/2009 financial crisis and how financial contagion works.

Also Coinbase is not so pristine or pure. They were misleading customers with a gentler version of the same thing Tether did. "Coinbase Vowed Token’s All-Cash Backing; That’s Not True". https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/coinbase-...

Re: Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions?

#90

I find it ironic that people seem intent on holding Tether to a much higher standard than banks. I know there are certain legal guarantees applied to banks along with regulations, but all evidence points to Tether being in a much safer position than banks with their tiny fractional reserves. People are dissatisfied with anything less than fully-backed when it comes to 'crypto'.

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