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For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

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Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#81
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

also, human failure modes are better understood, and can be better anticipated by e.g. you can still have a somewhat predictive mental model of how a swerving drunk drive might behave. We don't have a good frame of reference for how machines might behave with their failures, which means that accidents could be worse than they would be otherwise.

The severity of the accident is an interesting point. Though it intuitively feels like there are ways for software to mitigate the severity of an accident when it realizes it is about to crash than a human who might be asleep, intoxicated or otherwise have a slower reaction time.

The machine's ability to recognize that it's about to crash may actually be one of the issues here, since often the self-driving/driving-assist car crashes are cases where the AI just completely misinterpreted the environment and made bad choices.

A human driver is somewhat likely to eventually realize what situation they've gotten themselves into (oh no, i can't stop in time) because of the multiple different feedback loops and information sources they're working with combined with their experience as a driver. For example, a drunk or very tired driver is operating with impaired decision making and response time, but they may eventually notice and respond - while an AI misclassifying a fire truck as a stop sign may very well continue misclassifying it until impact.

One way to mitigate this would be via sensor fusion - even if your vision or radar sensing fail, you can rely on data from other sensors to do things like apply emergency braking.

Unfortunately at least one vendor has decided to ditch radar, lidar, etc and just go with vision!

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#82
post #11

What will happen if a deep-learning bug is found in Tesla autopilot where it misclassifies a fire truck for a bridge? Will they ground all the Tesla cars remotely? Or disable autopilot remotely? Until they have gathered new training data and updated the software?

The same thing that happens to a human that is at risk of misclassifying a fire truck for a bridge: Once the odds of this happening are low enough (say 0.00001%) they can pass a driver's test and we give them a drivers license.

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#83

I've lost count of the number of people I've talked to who think that neural nets means we've created brains that will just magically learn how to do new tasks. So we just need more training and then automated is just around the corner. Tesla, et al do not have the luxury of ignorance to explain that away however, they know what the technology is and is not currently capable of, but they don't want to admit it.

Its all artificial but no Intelligence. Statistical pattern matching, no matter how sophisticated, does not understand "why" from conceptually thinking about a space/time model of the world as we humans do.

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Average humans have a higher error rate.

For me the question is how high is the error rate for a non drunk non sleepy non elderly non reckless human, since that is what my car would replace. in my 20s you would need to bring the reckless back in.

There's also the fact though, that if you're elderly you can't really avoid being a worse driver. I know particularly in rural areas where there's no public transportation, a lot of elderly people would accept an error rate higher than what their own driving used to be. It seems pretty tough for the rest of us to deny them access to a technology like that while it's in the interstitial stage.

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has already been happening but self driving enthusiasts just keep thinking it is great. And regulators have done very little and otherwise smart people like Sandy Munro get extremely mad at what little regulators have hinted at. It is wild times.

Munro sat down with Musk and enthusiastically praised FSD but complained about how roads were often improperly painted. Musk--to his credit--said the car needed to work safely even in the presence of paint errors. (Video is on Munro's YT channel.) Munro is very critical of many aspects of car design; I cannot understand why he's such a fan of FSD. I tried FSD on the $200/month plan and dropped it: It makes the car un…

>I tried FSD on the $200/month plan and dropped it: It makes the car unsafe. To command a lane change you hold down the turn signal stalk. If you fail to hold it down long enough the car suddenly swerves back to the lane it was in. This is (to say the least) disconcerting at 80 mph.

This isn't true. You just tap the stalk down until it clicks. Sometimes if it detects issues in the other lane it will not complete the lane change and go back into your existing lane. But you do not have to hold it down the whole time.

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#86
post #61

Question for people here: Is it justifiable to accept these flaws in the short-term if it results in a car that has a lower-error rate than human drivers in the medium/long-term?

It depends on what kind of error it produces. If the error rate is only 0.5% but the death rate of those errors is 100% I am not sure it will be justifiable.

Even if the death rate is low but the _perceived_ impact is high.

Ex: Imagine a week where self-driving cars have a bug that only mis-identifies grandmas. Only a few grandmas die but the perceptual impact is massive.

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Munro sat down with Musk and enthusiastically praised FSD but complained about how roads were often improperly painted. Musk--to his credit--said the car needed to work safely even in the presence of paint errors. (Video is on Munro's YT channel.) Munro is very critical of many aspects of car design; I cannot understand why he's such a fan of FSD. I tried FSD on the $200/month plan and dropped it: It makes the car un…

> I tried FSD on the $200/month plan and dropped it: It makes the car unsafe. To command a lane change you hold down the turn signal stalk. If you fail to hold it down long enough the car suddenly swerves back to the lane it was in. This is (to say the least) disconcerting at 80 mph. That's not quite accurate. Unrelated to autopilot / FSD, you can do a small press on the turn signal and it will signal three times and…

To clarify I'm talking about a lane change initiated by me rather than merely allowing one recommended by the car. The latter only requires a brief flick of the turn signal stalk.

But the former required me to actively hold it down for several seconds--much longer than a full turn signal would require. I had to hold it down until the car was completely within the stripes of the adjacent lane or the car would immediately swerve back into the original lane. I tested it many times on a traffic-free road. Might have been a setting; I don't know.

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#88
post #11

What will happen if a deep-learning bug is found in Tesla autopilot where it misclassifies a fire truck for a bridge? Will they ground all the Tesla cars remotely? Or disable autopilot remotely? Until they have gathered new training data and updated the software?

Misclassification issues don't really matter in driving. Sometimes I mis-classify the things I see, all that matters is if I keep driving safely.

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I considered this before posting, but I think that human disengagements are an important supervisory signal for the model. You can’t hire enough safety drivers to scale this process and releasing it is the fastest way to get there. Simulations are not going to get you all the way because you can’t simulate the real world perfectly. Do you have any thoughts on how to develop this without releasing it?

> You can’t hire enough safety drivers to scale this process and releasing it is the fastest way to get there. I am sorry but I sincerely hope you are never made responsible for the release of anything remotely safety-critical. Please re-read what you wrote. You are saying that because a business does not have enough money/resources to scale a process in real-world conditions that the solution is to release something…

> I am sorry but I sincerely hope you are never made responsible for the release of anything remotely safety-critical.

Wild to infer that from someone asking a hypothetical ethical question.

Why are so many on this site so aggro?

Re: For Tesla, Facebook and Others, AI’s Flaws Are Getting Harder to Ignore

#90
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By the time people are allowed to let their cars drive unsupervised, the crash rate of AI versus human will probably be 1:10 or so. So even when those cars ram into fire trucks from time to time, it would be better to let them do their thing. Otherwise people will grab the steering wheel, drive drunk, sleepy, angry etc and ram into all kinds of things again. Currently, there are 6 million car accidents per year in th…

>By the time people are allowed to let their cars drive unsupervised, the crash rate of AI versus human will probably be 1:10 or so. This sort of statement keeps being parroted over and over again. As Linus would say, talk is cheap, show me the code ; then we can speak. >So even when those cars ram into fire trucks from time to time [...] This is just insane, honestly, and if this is the premise that guides the devel…

Yes anything or anyone outside of the norm becomes a target.

E.g. wear your hair in a funny way that's never been trained on? You're a target!

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