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An appeal for an objective, open, transparent debate re: the origin of Covid-19

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Re: An appeal for an objective, open, transparent debate re: the origin of Covid-19

#81

Post by fighterpilot »

sneak wrote: post #71
fighterpilot wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your argument is that we should take very stringent preventative measures whether or not COVID leaked from a lab. While I agree with that, what this misses is that knowledge of if and how the virus escaped is valuable knowledge that helps us by showing us where the flaws in our current processes are. Flight safety is a fitting analogy. You need to analyze exactly why a plane crashed so that you can see the gaps in cu…

How is it valuable? If it could be made in a lab and released (intentionally or accidentally), another could be made in a lab and released (intentionally), and our strategy should be exactly the same even if SARS-CoV-2 is of entirely natural origin, as the entire planet now knows the destructive value of this class of bioweapons (if constructing such artificially is within our technology). The US ban on GOF research…

> How is it valuable?

> our strategy should be exactly the same even if SARS-CoV-2 is of entirely natural origin

This is still missing the point. The point is that studying the details of how it leaked (if it did leak) gives you information that you can use to refine safety processes. Without these details, you are left with mere armchair theorizing about what new procedures are necessary and what the flaws are in current procedures.

Read about the history of plane crashes, where the details of how planes crashed were used to improve flight safety.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/flight/g73/12-airplane-cras...

- United Airlines 232 "The NTSB later determined the accident was caused by a failure by mechanics to detect a crack in the fan disk ... The accident led the FAA to order modification of the DC-10's hydraulic system and to require redundant safety systems in all future aircraft."

- TWA 800 "It was everybody's nightmare: a plane that blew up in midair for no apparent reason ... most likely after a short circuit in a wire bundle ... The FAA has since mandated changes to reduce sparks from faulty wiring and other sources."

Now how could such improvements have been made without knowing how the plane crashed?

Re: An appeal for an objective, open, transparent debate re: the origin of Covid-19

#82

Post by fredgrott »

dogsboywonder wrote: post #18

The amount of censorship, especially among the qualified scientific community in just about every facet of this disease is alarming. Even if the origins were accidental or lab-born or whatnot, the response has been so politicized worldwide that pure science has been largely thrown out the window. Every possibility should be analyzed & tested, even if it goes against the interests of a ruling party and all parties are…

Keep In Mind that among he ignorant posting information that is transforming coupled to the bio-tech we now have access to puts the non-skilled-in-critical thinking to direct harm and death.

In fact YouTube just banned someone for posting self DIY COVID vaccines for this reason.

And on top of it we have social platform that aim to cause discontent harm to earn profits as their stated goal, FB in particular.

ITS not Censorship when are responsible for the things we talk about!

Do you post jest about doing a felony? No of course not. is it censorship because you exercised responsibility?

Be [precise with wording as those who want a darker future want everyone to delve down to non precision as a way to hide their own dark intentions.

Re: An appeal for an objective, open, transparent debate re: the origin of Covid-19

#83

Post by PartiallyTyped »

dreen wrote: post #74
PartiallyTyped wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you expand why it backfired massively?

I did in the next part of the sentence, because the cost of that information was too big, even for China

Could you elaborate exactly on what that cost was? Credibility? Deaths? Economic?

Re: An appeal for an objective, open, transparent debate re: the origin of Covid-19

#84

Post by dreen »

null_object wrote: post #78
dreen wrote: post #17

It's well known that local Chinese authorities silenced a doctor (Li Wenliang) who was giving early warnings about the virus. That to me is a more grave mistake than an accidental lab leak, because they lost a chance to nip it in the bud. Accidents happen and quick response is essential. An intentional lab leak makes no sense to me at all. Its like starting a fire in your house to spite your neighbour.

> An intentional lab leak makes no sense to me at all. Its like starting a fire in your house to spite your neighbour But isn’t this precisely the strawman argument that’s effectively destroyed rational discussion about the lab-leak scenario? As far as I know, absolutely no rational scientist has suggested the intentional ‘bio-weapon’ release of the virus on China’s own population as a realistic scenario, in any way.…

I didnt oppose accidental leak possibility. My main argument was that restricting the flow of information has caused (or rather may have caused as @simonh rightly pointed out) the accident to be worse than it could have been.

Perhaps including the second part you quoted wasnt necessary for my point, but if you think that makes my post politically motivated then Im afraid its only because you choose to see it that way.

Re: An appeal for an objective, open, transparent debate re: the origin of Covid-19

#85

Post by sneak »

fighterpilot wrote: post #81
sneak wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is it valuable? If it could be made in a lab and released (intentionally or accidentally), another could be made in a lab and released (intentionally), and our strategy should be exactly the same even if SARS-CoV-2 is of entirely natural origin, as the entire planet now knows the destructive value of this class of bioweapons (if constructing such artificially is within our technology). The US ban on GOF research…

> How is it valuable? > our strategy should be exactly the same even if SARS-CoV-2 is of entirely natural origin This is still missing the point. The point is that studying the details of how it leaked (if it did leak) gives you information that you can use to refine safety processes. Without these details, you are left with mere armchair theorizing about what new procedures are necessary and what the flaws are in cu…

I think we're talking at cross purposes. (In any case, thanks for explaining!) I'm talking about defensive measures that a species needs to take to protect itself against dangerous respiratory viruses. You're talking about security measures that a laboratory needs to take to protect the world from the escape of things from containment.

While finding out the answer to the latter is interesting, I think "a ban on GOF research" is likely closer to the answer to the former, which reduces the significance of the latter.

We're going to see more of these, whether from SARS-CoV mutations, bioterror, or future lab leaks. The large-scale changes our society needs to make are identical even if we were only facing a subset of these threats (ie if lab leaks could be completely eliminated, which is what I believe you're talking about).

Re: An appeal for an objective, open, transparent debate re: the origin of Covid-19

#86

Post by dreen »

PartiallyTyped wrote: post #83
dreen wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did in the next part of the sentence, because the cost of that information was too big, even for China

Could you elaborate exactly on what that cost was? Credibility? Deaths? Economic?

What I'm saying is I think the risk itself is cost enough for them not to do it. Add whatever the losses are or we believe they are on top of that.

Re: An appeal for an objective, open, transparent debate re: the origin of Covid-19

#87

Post by SkeuomorphicBee »

dogsboywonder wrote: post #18

The amount of censorship, especially among the qualified scientific community in just about every facet of this disease is alarming. Even if the origins were accidental or lab-born or whatnot, the response has been so politicized worldwide that pure science has been largely thrown out the window. Every possibility should be analyzed & tested, even if it goes against the interests of a ruling party and all parties are…

I don't believe it is fair to call what the qualified scientific community is doing as "censorship", in fact I would go even further and say that calling it as such is purely political propaganda.

The scientific community is doing the studies, all the studies, every possibility is be analyzed & tested, even the most outlandish claims are being thoroughly tested in many many scientific studies/trials. Every scientist in any related field wants to be the one to find a cure, or find the source, or find any other relevant information on this disease (for the career advancement, the citations, the bragging rights). That the scientific community is correctly trying (and unfortunately failing) is to suppress the spread of false and/or misleading information that is not supported by the science, like the following:

1. Sensationalist press releases that are not supported by the underlying scientific paper.

2. Press releases propping-up weak new papers/studies that are less statistically powerful than the current consensus and therefore don't change the consensus.

3. The general press proping up scientific pre-prints without peer review.

Re: An appeal for an objective, open, transparent debate re: the origin of Covid-19

#88

Post by tlb »

sneak wrote: post #47
fighterpilot wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If it were an accidental lab leak: so what? > pursuit of justice It has nothing to do with a pursuit of justice, at least not for me. It's about understanding where the disease came from and how it jumped to humans, so that we have a better shot at stopping something like this happening again.

I suppose a better question in that case would be: is it possible to engineer something like SARS-CoV-2 in a lab (perhaps via existing GOF techniques) if it were one's explicit intent to cause a damaging pandemic? That's a more important question about whether or not this particular virus came out of a lab or not, because, if the answer to the above is "yes", then we need to take whatever your/whoever's proposed miti…

I think we need to go beyond fixing whatever lab leak may have allowed this virus out this time. We shouldn't have humans working in proximity to experimental viruses at all. Virus research should be done entirely by robots inside sealed containers that are never opened. The bits of technology for this all exist, though it'll take some integration to make it all work. Anything less risks billions of life-years.

Re: An appeal for an objective, open, transparent debate re: the origin of Covid-19

#89

Post by devwastaken »

"In addition, the international research community has no access to the sites, samples, or raw data."

The reason lab leak is considered a conspiracy theory, is because it's a literal conspiracy theory. The conspiracy being the CCP and potentially U.S. covering up a virus leak from their lab. Of course all sorts of other politics and disinformation get attached.

Nobody has the evidence necessary to make evidence based theories on lab leak. All we have is hand waving and "maybe".

Even if it did happen, what do you do? Sanction china? Tell them they were naughty? What this focus on lab leak without evidence does, is riles up the public, gets psuedo intellectual personalities in on the hand waving, and politics turns it into disinformation. The end result being anti-vaccine, anti-pharma, etc. Lab leak hypotheticals have so far done an incredible disservice.

Re: An appeal for an objective, open, transparent debate re: the origin of Covid-19

#90

Post by BoxOfRain »

dkersten wrote: post #24
dreen wrote: post #17

It's well known that local Chinese authorities silenced a doctor (Li Wenliang) who was giving early warnings about the virus. That to me is a more grave mistake than an accidental lab leak, because they lost a chance to nip it in the bud. Accidents happen and quick response is essential. An intentional lab leak makes no sense to me at all. Its like starting a fire in your house to spite your neighbour.

> An intentional lab leak makes no sense to me at all. Very few people are arguing that it was intentional. I agree that an intentional lab leak is highly, highly unlikely, but I think an accidental lab leak is at least just as likely as the wet market hypothesis and CCP certainly acted extremely suspicious.

I just hope the objective truth prevails whatever it turns out to be, regardless of politics the world needs to know in detail how pandemics can arise if we want to be more effective at preventing them.
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