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Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#81

Post by Sevii »

thwor234234 wrote: post #25

I don't think we appreciate the difficulties of a post-Peak-oil world. For the latter part of the past-decade Hubbert's theory was rubbished because of new supplies from fracking and tar-sands, but the basic hypothesis: that there is a finite supply of cheap oil remains. There is little doubt that this resource will run out soon, putting an end to cheap transport, cheap agri (fertilizers, mechanization), and pretty m…

10 years ago I'd agree with your sentiment. But now? I really think peak oil is overblown. A realistic scenario is linear or polynomial increases in oil prices over the next couple decades. The long tail of oil may end up at $10-20 a gallon before electric vehicles replace it completely.

Electric vehicle technology is ready to replace oil for all commuter and in-city use cases. Is it cheaper maybe not, but its not 10x more expensive. Maybe people will have to have an electric sedan instead of a $50k SUV. But people will make do.

According to https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-produc... 66% of US oil usage goes to transportation. If we shift all short in-cities transportation to electric we can save oil for long haul trucks, trains, ships, planes, and industrial/agricultural uses.

As oil supplies dwindle the price will increase until most of the demand (transportation) is shifted to electric vehicles. Food and plastics might increase in price. But the average American will be able to continue their car heavy lifestyle by switching to electric.

I'm very optimistic on the future of solar and wind power. We may see average energy prices decrease significantly despite phasing out oil, coal and natural gas. But even if there are no further improvements in renewables I think electric vehicles will be good enough to avoid a peak oil crisis.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#82

Post by xsquared2 »

runarberg wrote: post #62
eplanit wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a US citizen, I've been wondering for almost 10 years now if we're edging towards a new civil war. In the past 5 or so, I've been worrying almost equally about the state of global affairs setting the stage for potential world war. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have been in a relatively stable world (9/11, Iraq, and Afghanistan notwithstanding -- none of them world war scale), but it now feels ever les…

> If one has to have either a civil war or a world war (bizarre choice), a world war would actually serve to unite us, This is not only a terrible American exceptionalism thing to say, but also probably wrong if you look at history of failing states. The Russian emipre was it the brink of collapse before WW1, participation in that war lead to its collapse sooner then it probably would have. From an outside view much…

> However I would love to see American influence dwindle in favor of a more global solidarity of the workers of the world (including American workers).

Pardon my assumption, but are you a software engineer in america? How would the downfall of American hegemony and union of transnational labor favor you?

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#83

Post by [deleted] »

eplanit wrote: post #33
no_wizard wrote: post #8

Perhaps not entire civilization collapse, pending nuclear arsenals unleashed, but I think we are edging ever closer to massive social upheaval, what shape of this I am unsure about. To quote an adjacent article that was mentioned in this one: How Western Civilization Could Collapse > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the e…

As a US citizen, I've been wondering for almost 10 years now if we're edging towards a new civil war. In the past 5 or so, I've been worrying almost equally about the state of global affairs setting the stage for potential world war. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have been in a relatively stable world (9/11, Iraq, and Afghanistan notwithstanding -- none of them world war scale), but it now feels ever les…

[deleted]

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#84

Post by oroul »

bluejekyll wrote: post #11

“By 476, the empire’s reach was zero.” I stopped reading right here. The Western Empire fell in 476 (for many reasons). The Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantine Empire) lasted until 1453. Even that isn’t a perfect way of articulating it, given the continued influence of the Catholic Church had well into the 1500’s (Luther). In some ways one could argue civilization has never ended, but paused in different areas of the wor…

> Yes some empires went away, but we still read writings from Ancient Greece, so is it correct to say even that civilization ended?

I get your point, but I think it misses the mark. By this measure, no civilization has ever ended. If you go that far, you have to argue that the end of a civilization is the same as the end of the human species.

I think it's helpful to think of it more like the end of the French revolution. No one can agree on a point in time when the revolution ended, but we all agree that it happened.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#85

Post by rogue7 »

noahtallen wrote: post #31
branko_d wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best stats you've ever seen | Hans Rosling https://youtu.be/hVimVzgtD6w

I do really like that video and the book Factfulness. However, income inequality is definitely one of the things getting worse with time. And it’s scary for everyone, because if you don’t have money, your ability to survive is reduced, and if you do have money… look back to what happened only a handful of centuries ago or even less when the proletariat revolted. Sure, we aren’t there currently, but the trajectory is…

At first I really liked Hans Rosling's book. But afterwards I read some very valid criticism [0].

> We see that while per capita income has indeed increased in the global South, the global North has captured the vast majority of new income generated by global growth since 1960. As a result, the income gap between the average person in the North and the average person in the South has nearly quadrupled in size, going from $9,000 in 1960 to $35,000 today.

> In other words, there has been no “catch up”, no “convergence”. On the contrary, what’s happening is divergence, big time.

The same goes for the other topics, including biodiversity.

[0] https://www.jasonhickel.org/blog/2019/3/17/two-hump-world

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#86

Post by torstenvl »

eplanit wrote: post #33
no_wizard wrote: post #8

Perhaps not entire civilization collapse, pending nuclear arsenals unleashed, but I think we are edging ever closer to massive social upheaval, what shape of this I am unsure about. To quote an adjacent article that was mentioned in this one: How Western Civilization Could Collapse > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the e…

As a US citizen, I've been wondering for almost 10 years now if we're edging towards a new civil war. In the past 5 or so, I've been worrying almost equally about the state of global affairs setting the stage for potential world war. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have been in a relatively stable world (9/11, Iraq, and Afghanistan notwithstanding -- none of them world war scale), but it now feels ever les…

In my view, the primary reason we are edging toward a new civil war is that politicians have decided to wield the law as a weapon in the growing urban/rural cultural divide.

Classical liberalism is a necessity for pluralism, and pluralism is necessary for a country as diverse as the United States to survive. As soon as you drop "live and let live" as a fundamental principle and start trying to micromanage personal choice, you're on the road to division.

The Right should stop trying to ban gay marriage or abortion or TG folks from public schools. The Left should stop trying to ban guns or family gatherings or large sugary drinks or the rebel flag or traditional pronouns.

Until American can break the habit of trying to control one another and make other Americans live a certain way, we will never live up to E Pluribus Unum.

EDIT: Case in point...

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#87

Post by eCa »

kortilla wrote: post #68
tartoran wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind that in the last two centuries we’ve grown and expanded more or less exponentially. The destruction to the environment was proportional to it. Not saying we are going to self destruct, I don’t have a crystal ball to predict that, but it seems to me that right now we’re right on track towards it and the trainwreck is becoming harder and harder to avoid. Global warming and climate change is becoming more a…

But the risk to individual humans has dropped substantially as technology advanced. People were much more likely to just starve to death 100 years ago or die from simple medical ailments. The pressure we are putting on other species and flora is immense but humanity’s future has never been so certain. The only way to claim civilization collapse is to move the goal posts to a population decimation. But even that would…

> But even that would still only put us where we were less than 200 years ago.

With the exception that all easily accessible resources are gone. Might be a net positive - we will see.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#89

Post by FiggyPudding »

runarberg wrote: post #70
FiggyPudding wrote: post #61

I liked seeing this concept "as government loses control of its monopoly on violence." but I can't articulate why... Maybe something to do with a comparison to organized crime as a competition to a (possibly separately corrupt) government?

Many definitions of the word state include having monopoly on violence as a necessary (and sometimes also sufficient). A state loosing its monopoly on violence would—by definition—mean that the state has collapsed.

Thanks.

That certainly makes sense. The existence of organized crime does represent some failing of the state towards collapse.

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