Earlier quoted context omitted.
The “actual argument” against the system that this provides is that Apple lied about the likelihood of hash collisions. Therefore, why trust any of their other claims?
I find this an unconvincing argument as well, you're saying that because Apple made a false claim, any claim may be valid. This is obviously not the case, what they did was to, albeit likely knowingly, calculate the hash collision probability /if each bit is a coin flip/, which comes out to pow(2, -k) for k bits. It's tiny. Of course, each bit is /not/ an independent coin flip under the NeuralHash function. So again…
I doubt that's what they did. I think they ran tests on huge numbers of pictures, got an estimate, put in a safety factor, and determined the threshold to hit their target (and put in another safety buffer then).
Naturally occurring collisions are not going to be an issue, and adversarial ones neither, I predict. Just as with current cloud providers.