Add onto this that many or most of the mountains in the area are active volcanoes that are overdue for an eruption, and the Seattle area could be in for a real bad time over the next 250 years. The projections of a moderate eruption of Mount Rainier (aka Tahoma/Tacoma) include flows reaching all the way to Renton/South Seattle.
I have not seen anything that indicates Rainier or other volcanos are "overdue" for an eruption. Rainier, like others, goes through periods of greater or lesser activity. It's hard to predict the size of any particular eruption, as we saw at Mt St. Helens in 1980.
The biggest risk from Rainier currently is lahars, aka mudflows. You don't need an eruption for those. The last big one was Kautz Creek in 1947. If you live in one of the valleys around Rainier there's a reasonable chance of seeing a lahar in your lifetime. (Hopefully from somewhere out of harm's way.)
Note that Washington deployed the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system just yesterday--here's how to enable it on your phone: https://mil.wa.gov/alerts
> Washington deployed the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system just yesterday
Do you know how the early warning system works? How much advance warning do they expect to give?
This shouldn't be in the article. It's unscientific, non-technically, and pretty much meaningless.
Really? I don't know if the statement is backed up by science, but its a falsifiable empirical prediction. It is entirely within the realm of science to make predictions that certain geographic regions will have significant structural and human damage in the event of some hypothetical natural disaster.
>It is entirely within the realm of science to make predictions that certain geographic regions will have significant structural and human damage in the event of some hypothetical natural disaster.
I agree. But that's not the same as saying it's "toast".
This shouldn't be in the article. It's unscientific, non-technically, and pretty much meaningless.
It's not a science paper. It's in the New Yorker. It's supposed to be interesting. It also features great lines such as: "Oh, shit, Goldfinger thought, although not in dread, at first: in amazement. " "As Goldfinger put it, “In the late eighties and early nineties, the paradigm shifted to ‘uh-oh.’ ”" "...magnitude 5.0, magnitude 4.0, magnitude why are the neighbors moving their sofa at midnight"
It is quoted on wikipedia. An online encyclopedia.
I remember in early 2001, reading an article in the NYTimes or Seattle Times about the quake risk in Seattle, showing an easterly view of downtown from Puget Sound. In it, a line was drawn, showing a fault line, just about 4 blocks south of the Kingdome/Safeco Field area, along with the usual panic about how bad an earthquake could be in the region. This article and that image flashed through my mind when not more th…
I was right on top of the Northridge quake which was a 6.7 magnitude but more interesting is the horizontal acceleration:
Nisqually: .3g
Northridge: 1.82g
At the time we were told to head for the door frames which was like trying to run in a bounce house.
I'm more concerned about the homes that will go up in flames due to ruptured gas lines. With the fire department overwhelmed, the potential amount of toxic smoke/fumes post-quake scares me more than the quake. Assuming I survive, assuming my family/friends do, assuming we all even are happy about being survivors of something so colossal, at such scale...
There aren't many places with natural gas significantly west of I-5 in Washington. There's a main artery down WA-12 to Aberdeen and the harbor, and that's it. There's no natural gas service anywhere else on the WA pacific coast, nor the northern coast of the olympic peninsula (Sequim, Port Angeles), or the west bank of the Hood canal. The entire Olympic Peninsula is without natural gas except for one metro area. They…
Yep, this is what always gets me about the original quote - the peninsula _does_ exist, and while the damage will be very significant, a lot of us will be just fine, and most assuredly not toast.
The strongest earthquakes in recent history (1906-2005): 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_Valdivia_earthquake 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_Alaska_earthquake 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_a... Those 3 amount for over 50% of all the energy released by earthquakes in that period. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/79/Graph_of... There's this one too: https://en…
I was near the epicenter of the Chilean earthquake of 2010 (8.8),and my grandfather was in the 1960 one. The main mayority of the casualties in both earthquakes were caused by tsunamis (its really a bummer that Chile is basically a long strip of coast) we were lucky (in 2010)because the nearest big coastal population center was inside a bay, so the wave didn't hit directly.
the 1960 earthquake has a very interesting history, one day before (Saturday) , there was one big earthquake(8
1-8.3, X in mercalli m) 400 km North (city of Concepción) , that cut the communications and roadways from the capital to the south of the country. On Sunday, a second earthquake of similar magnitude struck, that finished destroying the remaining buildings in the location,but nobody died on that second earthquake because everyone was outside,for obvious reasons. Finally, the big one started not on Valdivia (300 km South) but the fault line extended 1000 km reaching Valdivia and beyond, 135 people died on Japan, Valdivia itself sunk permanently 2.7 meters (8 feet) ,one chain of lakes got their exit rivers blocked, so the water level was rising rapidly and if overflowed, it would flood again the same areas affected by the earthquake, so a joint operation between military and private parties were set up to try to unblock the whole system (they succeeded), there was a case of human sacrifice, trying to calm the fury of the gods that caused such destruction, it was wild
Not to mention that a very large number of homes in Western Washington are at least 80 years old. The house I live in was built in 1919. It's wood construction and has been gutted/remodeled, but it's also been added onto at least once and has no real foundation, but I think it might be a pier and beam type. An earthquake of large size, 7.0+ will probably cause major damage. For reference, I live near Chehalis, WA.
Post and pier foundations aren't ideal for earthquakes. In general though, wood performs better than masonry as a quake resistant building material because it can flex.
That is quite true. Unfortunately, most of the communities here still have a large number of brick buildings since they were founded at least 100 years ago, if not much longer.
Note that Washington deployed the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system just yesterday--here's how to enable it on your phone: https://mil.wa.gov/alerts
> Washington deployed the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system just yesterday Do you know how the early warning system works? How much advance warning do they expect to give?
Tokyo got nearly 30 seconds warning for the Fukushima earthquake. I have no idea how well Washington's system works, but I would imagine that someday it'll be as good as Japan's was in 2011
I live in Portland and have a slide-in truck camper on my property. I use it for camping of course, but it is also part of my earthquake preparation plan. It is solar powered but also has a built-in propane generator. It is fully self-contained with all the comforts of home including fresh water storage, a galley with oven, stove, freezer and fridge. A bathroom plus a hot shower, comfortable bed, large pantry, closet…
Our sailboat is our earthquake kit. It only holds* 15 gallons of freshwater, but has a functional kitchen and bathroom, and we can go 1000 miles north or south of here in a week, regardless of fuel or road conditions.
If covid had gotten India/Italy bad, our plan was to evacuate to Hawaii or Mexico.
*not including extra packaged water, boats can hold quite a bit