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Cryptocurrency Is an Abject Disaster

drewdevault.com

81–90 of 260 posts

Re: Cryptocurrency Is an Abject Disaster

#81
post #2

It's in it's infancy. In two decades we will know what it means to us as mankind. Cars were also dangerous, unregulated, expensive and excessively polluting. It got a lot better on all these points, and not all due to the cars: some of it was a mind shift that mankind had to make. Same will hold true for cryptocurrency.

Crypto miners buy a slab of silicon, plug it in, and its profitable. If this weren't the case, no one would mine it. Cryptocurrency is a fungus; either it will die, or it will eat up as much electricity & high-powered silicon as miners can get their hands on, diverting both from more economically interesting and productive applications. If I have one or two computers; that's enough. I don't need anymore. There is never "enough" computers for miners; they will always want more, because more electricity & computers means more money.

This is not theoretical. This is happening. Its destroying any service which dares to offer free tiers of generic compute. Its had a significant impact on a global silicon shortage the likes of which we've never seen, impacting products from graphics cards and work computers to cars and defense hardware.

That's it; there's no other correct opinion, only incorrect ones. If you support cryptocurrency, you support the environmental collapse of our planet. We don't need it; its die-hard supporters are either profit-motivated or have nothing beyond a grade-school understanding of historical macroeconomic trends and the broad, undeniably negative impact immutable currencies like Gold & Silver had on the average person's standard of living during economic downturns.

Re: Cryptocurrency Is an Abject Disaster

#82
I work for a large provider in the VCS/CI space. While I appreciate the varied opinions in the comments here on the perceived usefulness of Crypto, I think folks outside of the space simply do not understand how much time is being spent combating the issue.

If we, for example, had a team of 20 working on our CI offering, we would have re-allocated at least 50% of them to work full-time on combating the miners. And this trend is not slowing, it is only accelerating.

One week, we may have a breakthrough and find some common heuristic in running binaries that identify _this weeks_ miners, but next week they will have figured out that we have figured it out and make the requisite changes. It's something akin to the early days of anti-virus software, but given the 2021 scale of the internet, the iterations are moving at warp speed in comparison.

If you care nothing of the environmental impact (IMO you should), then take a second and ask yourself what your life as a creator of _things_ be like with no free access to CI tooling? I guaranty you that changes to the free tier of ALL CI services are on the way, and I heavily suspect that when that happens, the miners will take over any service offering paid CI where the return outweighs the price. This will lead to an escalation of pricing such that side-project, FOSS, and anything less than large profitable software will be priced out of hosted CI and be forced into a different model.

Stake: No crypto stake of any kind

Re: Cryptocurrency Is an Abject Disaster

#83
post #78
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cryptocurrencies just don't [have value]. It's all smoke and mirrors > super-immoral going-nowhere-moral tech lol what? Is US dollar moral? Is it not also "smoke-and-mirrors" by your definition since it's just paper that we all believe has value?

> lol what? Is US dollar moral? What exactly is your argument? > Is it not also "smoke-and-mirrors" by your definition since it's just paper that we all believe has value? USD is backed by the mostly aligned incentives of the whole world in general, and the biggest company in the world in particular, and by the largest military might and nuclear arsenal, ultimately. USD is paper and bits we believe has value. BTC is…

> USD is paper and bits we believe has value.

Speak for yourself.

> BTC is bits that most people believe doesn't have value.

This is changing rapidly, is it not?

Re: Cryptocurrency Is an Abject Disaster

#84
post #23

I generally agree. I do have a question, though. Would it be this bad without the marketplaces? I had a sliver of hope for a small period of time that bitcoin would truly replace fiat currencies. And that ethereum could replace law. Both have failed to achieve their goal. Is it society’s fault or has the tech always been pointless? Are there meatspace things society could do like e.g. ban using dirty energy for minin…

Can you write an ethereum contract that would ensure ethereum covered by it was not mined with dirty energy?

Re: Cryptocurrency Is an Abject Disaster

#85
post #23

I generally agree. I do have a question, though. Would it be this bad without the marketplaces? I had a sliver of hope for a small period of time that bitcoin would truly replace fiat currencies. And that ethereum could replace law. Both have failed to achieve their goal. Is it society’s fault or has the tech always been pointless? Are there meatspace things society could do like e.g. ban using dirty energy for minin…

You underestimated both the number of problems solved and effort put into making those solutions. Law and Currency are extremely complex institutions that solve complex interlocking problems.

Replacing either one completely is probably impossible and any change to them will probably have to be iterative improvement, not replacement.

Re: Cryptocurrency Is an Abject Disaster

#86
So it seems Drew is biased here, he is biased because his service is being used by thieves to make money.

My tainted opinion: I think the criticisms of Proof-of-Work are totally justified here. There are perverse incentives for "miners" to execute work in the cheapest way they can, whether that is JS miners, bot farms, abuse of free services, hacked AWS accounts, abusing favorable tenancy conditions etc. and even if the miner isn't downright stealing, there's a good chance they are operating in an environment where the cheapest electricity isn't going to be exactly "green" either.

Practically all of these mining efforts are not done out of some kind of altruistic, utopian goal of shutting down central bankers, but are simply done to make money.

What I think is unfair of Drew is to categorize cryptocurrency as a whole as an abject disaster, when in his own article he writes "attempts at reform, like proof-of-stake, are viciously blocked". Well proof-of-stake still falls under the cryptocurrency banner, doesn't it? Perhaps it's better to say that cryptocurrency is facing an identity crisis.

My opinions on proof-of-storage: I always expected that the price of these coins would naturally level out because you'd have to remain competitive with the likes of Backblaze or S3. I don't know enough about the incentive structures of Proof-of-Storage coins, but if there are incentives to have empty spinning rust then these are the wrong incentives and I'd say those protocols are likely broken. Rewards should be heavily slashed if there's wasted storage (ie. empty storage), so as to disincentivize miners from over-provisioning hardware (hoarding disks).

Disclosure:

I'm currently holding roughly a pay check each of Harmony ONE and Polkadot and have a small, locked stake in ETH2. All of these projects are Proof-of-Stake.

I also own pocket change amounts of Stellar Lumens which are used between myself and a friend to keep track of who's paid for lunch. As I understand it, the Stellar consensus protocol is not computationally intensive when compared to Proof-of-Work.

Re: Cryptocurrency Is an Abject Disaster

#87
post #7

> Cryptocurrency is one of the worst inventions of the 21st century. I am ashamed to share an industry with this exploitative grift. It has failed to be a useful currency, invented a new class of internet abuse, further enriched the rich, wasted staggering amounts of electricity, hastened climate change, ruined hundreds of otherwise promising projects, provided a climate for hundreds of scams to flourish, created sho…

If we look at Lightning, it enables a full implementation of the 402 response code flow, which would allow for decentralized identity and payments in the use of machine learning networks for a wide variety of AI based systems. One such use case may end up being the "killer" use case for crypto and may make up for the speculative phase we're in now.

It seems rather poor form to ask someone to disclose their exact crypto holdings for the sake of legitimizing, or delegitimizating their position.

Couldn’t it just be a binary yes or no?

Disclosure: I own some crypto.

Re: Cryptocurrency Is an Abject Disaster

#88
post #57
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did not learn anything from that post, it mostly read as an advertisement for ETH and the linked websites. If you are going to toute the actual legitimate use cases for blockchain, please name at least one.

Not OP but the easiest one: De-Fi

That’s still a handwavy theoretical category of vaporware. Not one concrete example of a tangible application where “de-fi” replaced a previous technology with a better solution?

Re: Cryptocurrency Is an Abject Disaster

#89
post #74
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems completely on the mark to me. Your dismissals don't seem appropriate to HN. Please name one good thing crypto helps people accomplish that doesn't involve breaking the law (or speculation.)

off the top of my head: DeFi, NFT's, data storage, services for the bankless, decentralized metaverses, insurance, synthetics, music streaming, video streaming, social networks, DAO's, social money

I think most, if not all, of those things work fine (and arguably better) without using a cryptocurrency.

Re: Cryptocurrency Is an Abject Disaster

#90
post #55
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if the costs had been obvious from day one, unlike cryptocurrencies they also had value. Many things do. Cryptocurrencies don't.

No argument here: in the second decade, the only cash-positive usage is convincing other people to buy them. That’s a long time to have nothing to show despite such massive cash flow into the system. TBL transformed the world in a few years for a tiny fraction of the cost despite much higher barriers to adoption.

There is no cash flow "into the system". Its a forever repeated nonsense idea. If you exchange fiat or maybe gold for fiat there is no cash flow into anything its just an exchange. Crypto to crypto or to fiat is exactly the same. No cash goes anywhere other than to the seller.

(obviously ignoring fees and such but they also dont go into anything its just paying someone for providing a service)

If you look at crypto as the huge trading space and you dont see it produce anything is simply because its not supposed to. You look at the space that just exchanges stuff. If you look at a grocery store and you dont see anything produced you are right. The store is just where people exchange stuff. Its not where value is created or where you would find innovation in producing something.

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