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India’s second wave

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Re: India’s second wave

#81

Post by Mediterraneo10 »

qart wrote: post #65
notsureaboutpg wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think putting the blame on people for weddings, religious ceremonies (aka normal everyday life which is going to happen, even during the Afghanistan War people had wedding celebrations despite the danger) is misguided. Governments are getting rightful blame. I think the media also don't help. How many stupid news outlets were saying that Indian people have some kind of genetic immunity to COVID with absolutely no e…

The virus does not care what you consider misguided. Make all the excuses you want, but crowds lead to spreading of airborne diseases.

The virus may spread in whatever way it does, but what public-health measures are to be used to respond to it, have to have some kind of mandate from the population. Already in several countries the authorities have chosen not to impose tighter restrictions on gatherings because the population has shown that it would flaunt them. In that case, public-health officials have to change their messaging to e.g. encouraging those gathering to do so outdoors, where transmission is less likely.

Re: India’s second wave

#82

Post by refurb »

esperent wrote: post #68
Mediterraneo10 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vietnam and India aren't so comparable. In spite of both getting the label "developing country", India has more extreme poverty than Vietnam. Vietnam is also a more centralized, authoritarian state that is in a better position to enforce restrictions.

Of course. And the US had Trump leading it through the pandemic and a huge portion of the population who view mask wearing as a violation of fundamental rights. My point is that a country's status as "developing" doesn't seem to be the determining factor in how well they'll deal with it. Other factors are more important.

Like what? Respect for human rights? I mean, my brother is in Vietnam and some of the stuff they do there would be unconstitutional in the US.

Re: India’s second wave

#83

Post by refurb »

kjakm wrote: post #17
throwaway4good wrote: post #6

It is sadly predictable that the pandemic would end up becoming a permanent source of havoc in less developed part of the world, even as it comes under control in the west. This will for certain be with us for many years to come and will further distort the difference between rich and poor. Not at least helped by the nationalism in the west in form of export controls and patents.

It's not exactly under control in the west yet either. Mainland Europe seems to be going through a pretty serious third wave.

Canada is being ravaged by it right now. Some of the worst numbers since it began. We’re talking 60x the cases from October (BC). Not sure if it’s the reason why but after the 2nd wave started to burn out they opened up quite quickly. I think people got complacent.

Re: India’s second wave

#84

Post by corty »

collyw wrote: post #60
Clewza313 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HIV, malaria, and many other diseases endemic to the third world target people in the prime of life, wreaking havoc on families. By contrast, most (not all, but most) deaths from COVID are the elderly. Any mention of this tends to bring on "how dare you say one life is more valuable than another" downvotes, but since this thread is considering economic impact, it's a relevant factor.

Personally I see a teenage suicide as a result of lockdown far more tragic than an 83 year old death from covid (that's the average age of Covid death in the UK. The average age of death in the UK is 82). 60+ years of life lost versus a maybe 2 or 3.

Even so, preliminary numbers where available seem to show the suicide rate to be falling. So in the loss-of-years calculation, all is quite fine actually...

Re: India’s second wave

#85

Post by corty »

vondro wrote: post #48
corty wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That those diseases have a lower death-count today is a consequence of the havoc they have brought historically and of the current disruption they cause in isolating the infected, vaccinations, necessary medications and hospital beds, etc. In all likelyhood COVID-19 will go the way of the spanish flu (with or without vaccination only changes the time it takes) and become less of a problem due to partial immunity in t…

Isn't HIV mostly a solved problem nowadays? Genuine question.

Only in more developed countries where your medical insurance pays the bills. And even there it can wreak havoc on the public health insurance system due to the excessive cost of keeping HIV-positives alive.

Generally, HIV is "solved" by a lifelong treatment with antiretrovirals. Those are not free of side-effects, very expensive and not available everywhere. In many places in less-developed countries, antiretrovirals are simply unaffordable for those affected. And even if they are affordable, the recurrent cost of the drugs keeps them in a lifelong state of poverty and dependency. Society as a whole may finance those drugs, but at the cost of other necessary things of course. Also, some countries try to produce those drugs themselves on the cheap, getting them into hot water with the western patent lobby and preventing trade agreements and the like, damaging their economy.

And the epidemic itself is still ongoing, sometimes even fueled by infected people no longer caring, due to the availability of antiretrovirals that render AIDS "harmless".

All in all, HIV is still spreading, is still not cured, treatment is problematic and it still wreaks havoc. Maybe only a little less.

Re: India’s second wave

#86

Post by kthejoker2 »

collyw wrote: post #60
Clewza313 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HIV, malaria, and many other diseases endemic to the third world target people in the prime of life, wreaking havoc on families. By contrast, most (not all, but most) deaths from COVID are the elderly. Any mention of this tends to bring on "how dare you say one life is more valuable than another" downvotes, but since this thread is considering economic impact, it's a relevant factor.

Personally I see a teenage suicide as a result of lockdown far more tragic than an 83 year old death from covid (that's the average age of Covid death in the UK. The average age of death in the UK is 82). 60+ years of life lost versus a maybe 2 or 3.

To be pedantic, the remaining life expectancy if an 82 year old in UK in 2019 was 7.5 years.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

And of course, cumulatively many more "life years" would be lost in a no-lockdown world.

But the real tragedy is you thinking stopping a real, deadly disease that affects millions of people isn't worth it because of a completely preventable death.

Re: India’s second wave

#87

Post by _djo_ »

Clewza313 wrote: post #37
_djo_ wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is inaccurate. COVID-19 has been far deadlier than any of those already-devastating existing diseases and conditions in places like India, South Africa, and Brazil. In South Africa for instance, COVID-19 killed more people in 2020 than HIV/AIDS or TB.

HIV, malaria, and many other diseases endemic to the third world target people in the prime of life, wreaking havoc on families. By contrast, most (not all, but most) deaths from COVID are the elderly. Any mention of this tends to bring on "how dare you say one life is more valuable than another" downvotes, but since this thread is considering economic impact, it's a relevant factor.

You're assuming developed world demographics in your answer, which isn't accurate for countries like South Africa with relatively young populations.

Fully one fifth of South Africa's COVID-19 deaths were in the 50-59 age bracket, which includes many key experienced and highly-skilled personnel.

Another ten percent were between 40 and 49.

Sure, 44% of those who died were 60+ but to assume that had less economic impact is also incorrect: In the most hard-hit areas many of the primary caregivers for children are in that age group as grandparents who were forced to care for their grandchildren after AIDS wiped out so many of their children. COVID-19 has now left many kids double-orphaned, first with the deaths of their parents from AIDS and now the deaths of their grandparents from COVID-19.

Re: India’s second wave

#88

Post by mensetmanusman »

corty wrote: post #84
collyw wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally I see a teenage suicide as a result of lockdown far more tragic than an 83 year old death from covid (that's the average age of Covid death in the UK. The average age of death in the UK is 82). 60+ years of life lost versus a maybe 2 or 3.

Even so, preliminary numbers where available seem to show the suicide rate to be falling. So in the loss-of-years calculation, all is quite fine actually...

https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2020/08/13/...

Re: India’s second wave

#89

Post by wolfretcrap »

qart wrote: post #25

Lockdowns hurt poor people very badly; they need to earn to survive. All the more reason everyone should mask up. And yet, most people stopped masking months ago. Crowds are as bad as they were in 2019. On top of that, doctors here have created a craze for remdesivir, resulting in a blackmarket for it. The central and state governments have mismanaged plenty of things. While they deserve their share of blame, the ord…

>While they deserve their share of blame, the ordinary people have only made matters worse. Chin-mask, no-mask, herbal "remedies", religious gatherings, weddings, engagements, naming ceremonies... the list goes on.

Culture does not change in a day even at desperate times.

Government should ban gathering and events.

Even my extended family is planning to attend a wedding despite huge risk in doing so, why? In India attending someone's wedding is very important and basis for building social wealth. If you don't attend others wedding, they'll not attend yours. As simple as that, all families live in this fear of having no one attending wedding of their daughter or son that they take this massive risk to arrived at the wedding of their friends and relatives.

Only strict government rule can fix this, otherwise I've heard misinformed people claiming that Coronavirus is just a hoax by government and no one is dying, why can't you attend the wedding if the everyone is coming. Unfortunately, you can't teach the people who hold this view, you only lose to them if you try to use reason.

Re: India’s second wave

#90

Post by brnt »

Wildgoose wrote: post #79
thibran wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please differentiate more. The US and UK don't share, but the EU does. The egoism of some countries hurt the idea of a free and equal world a lot these days...

Absolutely not true. The UK Government paid for the AZ vaccine to be developed and then stipulated as part of the contract that it must be made available at cost to developing countries. The EU on the other hand keeps seizing vaccines produced for other countries.

> The EU on the other hand keeps seizing vaccines produced for other countries.

Citation needed. I've not heard about this at all.

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