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$7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

theblockcrypto.com

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Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#81

Post by Salgat »

raducu wrote: post #49
treeman79 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zero to infinite. Good arguments all around. If governments decide it’s a threat I imagine it’ll go to near zero. Much to my personal shock that doesn’t seem to be happening.

I don't like cryptos for multiple reasons, a lot of which could be fixed in the future. But we're way over the phase where governments would ban it, on the contrary, I think bitcoin is a last resort fix for the immense global debt. My wild theory is after elites load up on bitcoin(and also a lot of ordinary folks) governments would change bitcoin to bitcoin 2.0 and completely crash other forms of fiat currency, wipin…

China and the US will never give up monetary policy, it's one of their most powerful economic tools.

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#82

Post by lrem »

polote wrote: post #11
patentatt wrote: post #4

What I hate about Bitcoin is that I have absolutely no idea if this is 1) a good dip to buy, or 2) the start of a much bigger crash. Everything I understand about the topic and the world at large tells me it should be #2, but in retrospect it always winds up being #1. Am I passing up free money today? Or am I smart not to gamble in such an obviously rigged game? Will I look back years from now longingly and wish that…

How is that different from the stock market ? Maybe you have 'more ideas' but that would not prevent you to be wrong. In both case nobody can predict what will happen next

S&P500 did about +100% over 5 years. Bitcoin did about +11500% over same 5 years (would have been over +13000% before this crash).

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#84

Post by dwaltrip »

patentatt wrote: post #48
hooande wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you legitimately have no idea, then you don't have any more information than the market does. why would you trade at all?

I don't. But the 'what if' game keeps me up at night sometimes. Buying and holding BTC isn't as far-fetched as guessing the right lotto numbers. Even smaller-scale stuff, like if I had taken half of my vacation fund and bought BTC 6 months ago, which would have been a pretty acceptable risk (it's all gravy and already set aside), that would be a non-trivial amount of money to me. What if I could max out my kid's coll…

Of course, you can always do better. And it is good to try to improve. But it sounds like some unreasonable expectations are sneaking into your thoughts. Like it or not, you are only human :)

For me, meditation and practicing self-compassion helped with stuff like this.

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#85

Post by [deleted] »

kungito wrote: post #74
fny wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is that stocks can be "valued" whereas crypto and other assets that lack a revenue stream can only be priced.

Yeah it "can" be valued but we can also see that it doesn't really seem like valuations are connected to actual company value

[deleted]

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#86

Post by raducu »

aent wrote: post #78
raducu wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did anything changed about tether having to reveal anything about their reserves? This has been going on for years, and it seemed that nobody was able to force them to prove anything.

It's part of their recent NY settlement: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-23/crypto-ex... >New York officials, who originally began investigating Bitfinex in 2019, will receive quarterly reports on composition of Tether’s reserves for the next two years. The companies will end all trading activity with New Yorkers. That starts in about a month

Thanks!

There's nothing in the article that suggests that tether will be closed if they are not backed up 100%, so I guess it won't make any real change even if they are not.

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#87

Post by kolinko »

haolez wrote: post #35

I'm waiting for a Tether collapse to create my long position, but I'm starting to feel like Michael Burry in the Big Short: the market can remain irrational for a long time.

If/when Tether collapses people will escape it en masse into bitcoin and ethereum.

Paradoxically, it can lead to the prices in crypto shooting up, not down.

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#89

Post by repsilat »

kungito wrote: post #74
fny wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is that stocks can be "valued" whereas crypto and other assets that lack a revenue stream can only be priced.

Yeah it "can" be valued but we can also see that it doesn't really seem like valuations are connected to actual company value

I like to think of the valuations as lower-bounds.

There are people out there who will pay for discounted income streams, and they put a pretty good floor on prices. There are people out there who will pay for book value when prices drop too far, and they provide a (different, weaker) floor on prices. There are people who will pay for brands and memes and so on, and they provide different floors again. And then throw in different discount rates, different projections of the future, different tastes, you get the picture.

None of these lower-bounds provides the price. If I have a company that just holds $1 in a bank account at 0% interest, an income-based valuation says it's worth $0, and a book-value based one says it's worth $1, so it's worth at least $1. But if I have a goose that lays $100 bills every day, it's worth a lot more as an income stream than it is in book value (as a goose.)

There are some things that provide upper-bounds. When prices are too high, companies should issue stock and (incidentally, not as a goal) drive the price down -- this is "raising money cheaply". But in practice this is usually a pretty weak force. The bitcoin equivalent (mining) might be stronger because there are more market participants on the supply side.

Anyway, with interest rates at zero, high savings and lots of spare time and boredom, the income- and meme-based lower-bounds are causing prices to do interesting things.

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#90

Post by oliver-was-here »

patentatt wrote: post #4

What I hate about Bitcoin is that I have absolutely no idea if this is 1) a good dip to buy, or 2) the start of a much bigger crash. Everything I understand about the topic and the world at large tells me it should be #2, but in retrospect it always winds up being #1. Am I passing up free money today? Or am I smart not to gamble in such an obviously rigged game? Will I look back years from now longingly and wish that…

For me it’s not a question of either or. In or out.

I limit my exposure to 10%. Hate crypto or not, it’s earned its right to be treated as a legitimate investment class. The reason to diversify are due to the exact same reasons you’re expressing. If I were to liquidate my positions, I’d do so over a period of time rather than all at once - likely keeping some exposure.

IMO, if you’re investing in any equity trying to “time it,” or get rich quick, you’re taking as big of a risk as having exposure in crypto to begin with.

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